Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Emirates Stadium Sat, 11 Apr - 11:30 AM
Premier League
Arsenal ARS
1 Winner 2
AFC Bournemouth BOU
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 32 Regular Season
Viktor Gyökeres - 35' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Alex Scott - 74'
Eli Kroupi - 17'

CONTEXT

The match between Arsenal and AFC Bournemouth is finished, with the full-time score Arsenal 0-1 AFC Bournemouth. Pre-match expectations pointed strongly toward an Arsenal victory, with the home side given a 65.2 percent likelihood of success against just 13.1 percent for the visitors. The result marked a significant deviation from that outlook, as AFC Bournemouth, not regarded as the stronger team, produced an upset win. This outcome did not align with the pre-match projection, though the efficiency shift stayed in line with broader expectations. Arsenal held a slight edge in possession at 53 percent to Bournemouth’s 47 percent, but no expected goals data was available to provide further context on chance quality. Neither side received a red card, and no major disciplinary events altered the flow of play. Overall the contest delivered a result that ran counter to the anticipated dominance from the home team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AFC Bournemouth showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Oliver

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Burt

1st Assistant

J. Mainwaring

2nd Assistant

G. Ward

4th Official

Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
VS
AFC Bournemouth A. Iraola
A. Iraola
2.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Everton Rank: W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: W
Chelsea Rank: W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: D
Brentford Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester United Rank: D
Burnley Rank: D
Brentford Rank: D
Sunderland Rank: D
West Ham United Rank: D
Everton Rank: W
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arsenal
65.22%
Draw
21.69%
Away AFC Bournemouth
13.09%

Movement

Changes since opening
Arsenal
+64.59%
Draw
+11.13%
AFC Bournemouth
-75.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
39.12
24.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
Power Score
39.12
24.4
League Position
1
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
AFC Bournemouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arsenal AFC Bournemouth

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Arsenal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AFC Bournemouth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Arsenal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AFC Bournemouth
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.49
20.96
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.96
33.49
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Arsenal +1.42 Efficiency Index
vs
AFC Bournemouth -1.42 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Arsenal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AFC Bournemouth
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Arsenal AFC Bournemouth
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Arsenal AFC Bournemouth
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Arsenal
vs
AFC Bournemouth
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Arsenal AFC Bournemouth
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Arsenal 0.27
AFC Bournemouth 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Arsenal AFC Bournemouth
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Arsenal 0.05
AFC Bournemouth 0.02
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ARS had peak pressure around 36'.
  • ARS started the game with stronger pressure.
ARS Pressure BOU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ARS reached the top pressure at 36' (82.85).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arsenal ARS Home
18 matches
AFC Bournemouth BOU Away
Match Record
13
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
13
Goals
42
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
42
+24
Goal Difference
-24

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:02:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Raya Martin
Spain
1 D. Raya Martin
B. White
Substitution
England
4 B. White
W. Saliba
France
2 W. Saliba
G. dos Santos Magalhães
Brazil
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
M. Lewis-Skelly
England
49 M. Lewis-Skelly
M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
Substitution
Spain
36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
D. Rice
Republic of Ireland
41 D. Rice
C. Madueke
Substitution
England
20 C. Madueke
K. Havertz
Substitution
Germany
29 K. Havertz
G. Martinelli Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 G. Martinelli Silva
V. Gyökeres
Sweden
14 V. Gyökeres
Pitch
Đ. Petrović
Serbia
1 Đ. Petrović
A. Truffert
France
3 A. Truffert
M. Senesi
Argentina
5 M. Senesi
J. Hill
England
23 J. Hill
A. Jiménez Sánchez
Substitution
Spain
20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
R. Christie
Substitution
Scotland
10 R. Christie
A. Scott
England
8 A. Scott
M. Tavernier
England
16 M. Tavernier
E. Kroupi
Substitution
France
22 E. Kroupi
R. Rocha
Substitution
Brazil
37 R. Rocha
F. de Lima Barbosa
Substitution
Brazil
9 F. de Lima Barbosa

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 11, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Emirates Stadium
Capacity :
60704
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Michael Oliver
Stuart Burt
James Mainwaring
Gavin Ward

Statistics

Possession
ARS
53%
BOU
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 3
55 Dangerous attacks 37
53 Possession 47
10 Corners 1
17 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

13 Successful Headers 18
21 Dribble Attempts 16
30 Throwins 20
9 Goal Kicks 11
10 Successful Dribbles 6
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
76 Ball Safe 84
6 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

97 Attacks 90
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 79
313 Successful Passes 288
389 Passes 363
22 Successful Long Passes 12
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 24
48 Long Passes 49
9 Key Passes 5

Defensive

17 Tackles 20
7 Interceptions 8
1 Saves 2

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 8
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

12 Fouls 18
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Michael Oliver

Starting XI ▼

1
David Raya
David Raya Goalkeeper
2
William Saliba
William Saliba Defender
4
Ben White
Ben White Defender
3
Cristhian Mosquera
Cristhian Mosquera
Defender76'
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Defender
49
Myles Lewis-Skelly
Myles Lewis-Skelly Defender
11
Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli Midfielder
19
Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard
Attacker54'
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke Midfielder
56
Max Dowman
Max Dowman
Midfielder54'
29
Kai Havertz
Kai Havertz Midfielder
10
Eberechi Eze
Eberechi Eze
Midfielder54'
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi Midfielder
9
Gabriel Jesus
Gabriel Jesus
Attacker76'
41
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Midfielder
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres Attacker
Referee : Michael Oliver

Starting XI ▼

1
Djordje Petrovic
Djordje Petrovic Goalkeeper
3
Adrien Truffert
Adrien Truffert Defender
5
Marcos Senesi
Marcos Senesi Defender
20
Álex Jiménez
Álex Jiménez Defender
15
Adam Smith
Adam Smith
Defender90'
23
James Hill
James Hill Defender
8
Alex Scott
Alex Scott Midfielder
10
Ryan Christie
Ryan Christie Midfielder
12
Tyler Adams
Tyler Adams
Midfielder70'
16
Marcus Tavernier
Marcus Tavernier Midfielder
22
Eli Kroupi
Eli Kroupi Midfielder
27
Alex Tóth
Alex Tóth
Midfielder85'
37
Rayan
Rayan Midfielder
7
David Brooks
David Brooks
Midfielder70'
9
Evanilson
Evanilson Attacker
26
Enes Ünal
Enes Ünal
Attacker90'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
James Hill
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Adam Smith → Álex Jiménez
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Enes Ünal → Evanilson
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Alex Tóth → Eli Kroupi
8th Substitution
Event
Viktor Gyökeres
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
79'
Event
Eli Kroupi
2nd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Adrien Truffert
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Gabriel Jesus → Martín Zubimendi
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Cristhian Mosquera → Ben White
7th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Alex Scott
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
70'
Event
Tyler Adams → Ryan Christie
4th Substitution
70'
Event
David Brooks → Rayan
5th Substitution
Event
Eberechi Eze → Kai Havertz
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Leandro Trossard → Gabriel Martinelli
3rd Substitution
54'
Event
Max Dowman → Noni Madueke
1st Substitution
54'
1ST-HALF
Event
Viktor Gyökeres
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
35'
17'
Event
Eli Kroupi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after James Hill concedes.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Arsenal losing 1-2 to Bournemouth.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
James Hill from Bournemouth receives a yellow card.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Adam Smith replaces Álex Jiménez.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Enes Ünal replaces Evanilson.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Viktor Gyökeres heads the ball from the center of the box.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Viktor Gyökeres from Arsenal shot with his right foot from the center of the box.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Tavernier from Bournemouth had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but it went high. The assist was provided by Alex Scott.
90
Update Update
Offside called against Arsenal. Myles Lewis-Skelly is in an offside position.
89
Update Update
Álex Jiménez from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
89
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Magalhães of Arsenal.
87
Attempt Attempt
Declan Rice's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Eberechi Eze provided the assist.
86
Update Update
Leandro Trossard from Arsenal won a free kick in an attacking position.
86
Corner Corner
Arsenal wins a corner after Djordje Petrovic concedes.
86
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Djordje Petrovic concedes.
86
Update Update
Evanilson fouled a Bournemouth player.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Alex Tóth replaces Junior Kroupi.
84
Corner Corner
Arsenal wins a corner after Djordje Petrovic concedes.
83
Corner Corner
Arsenal wins a corner after Álex Jiménez concedes.
83
Update Update
Eberechi Eze from Arsenal won a free kick on the right wing.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Alex Scott for Bournemouth.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal receives a yellow card for a foul.
80
Update Update
Marcus Tavernier of Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Viktor Gyökeres against Arsenal.
79
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after James Hill concedes.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Junior Kroupi of Bournemouth receives a yellow card.
79
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Gyökeres' right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from William Saliba.
79
Update Update
Leandro Trossard of Arsenal won a free kick on the left wing.
79
Update Update
Leandro Trossard from Arsenal won a free kick on the left wing.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrien Truffert from Bournemouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
77
Update Update
Max Dowman of Arsenal won a free kick in an attacking position.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Truffert against Bournemouth.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus replaces Martín Zubimendi.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Cristhian Mosquera replaces Ben White.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bournemouth leads 2-1 after Alex Scott scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
73
Update Update
Foul by Marcus Tavernier for Bournemouth.
73
Update Update
Martín Zubimendi of Arsenal won a free kick on the right wing.
72
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Alex Scott from Bournemouth takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes high.
72
Attempt Attempt
Tyler Adams' shot from the center of the box is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Ben White's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: David Brooks replaces Rayan.
70
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Magalhães of Arsenal has a shot from the center of the box, but it is blocked.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Tyler Adams replaces Ryan Christie.
69
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Djordje Petrovic concedes.
69
Attempt Attempt
Myles Lewis-Skelly's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
68
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Djordje Petrovic concedes.
67
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Ben White concedes.
66
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Christie from Bournemouth misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
65
Update Update
Arsenal is called offside as Viktor Gyökeres is in an offside position.
64
Update Update
Leandro Trossard from Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Max Dowman for Arsenal.
58
Update Update
Adrien Truffert of Bournemouth won a free kick on the left wing.
55
Update Update
Evanilson fouled a Bournemouth player.
55
Update Update
Gabriel Magalhães of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Leandro Trossard replaces Gabriel Martinelli.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Max Dowman replaces Noni Madueke.
54
Update Update
Gabriel Magalhães from Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
53
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Eberechi Eze replaces Kai Havertz.
52
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Alex Scott concedes.
52
Attempt Attempt
Declan Rice's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Ben White provided the assist.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Myles Lewis-Skelly of Arsenal.
50
Update Update
Junior Kroupi from Bournemouth won a free kick on the right wing.
47
Update Update
Kai Havertz commits a handball for Arsenal.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Viktor Gyökeres against Arsenal.
46
Update Update
Marcos Senesi from Bournemouth earned a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul by Marcos Senesi - Bournemouth.
45
Update Update
David Raya - Arsenal - won a free kick in defence.
45
Update Update
The second half begins after the match is tied 1-1 between Arsenal and Bournemouth.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Arsenal and Bournemouth tied at 1-1.
45
Update Update
David Raya from Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Ryan Christie from Bournemouth won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
Noni Madueke won a free kick for Arsenal on the right wing.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Kai Havertz - Arsenal.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Martín Zubimendi - Arsenal.
42
Update Update
Noni Madueke won a free kick for Arsenal in defense.
42
Update Update
Ryan Christie from Bournemouth won a free kick on the left wing.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Truffert of Bournemouth.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Junior Kroupi of Bournemouth.
40
Attempt Attempt
Evanilson from Bournemouth attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it is saved.
40
Update Update
Martín Zubimendi of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
38
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Marcos Senesi concedes.
37
Update Update
Evanilson from Bournemouth won a free kick on the left wing.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by William Saliba of Arsenal.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Viktor Gyökeres scores for Arsenal with a right-footed shot into the top left corner. The match remains 1-1.
34
Update Update
Ryan Christie of Bournemouth concedes a penalty for a handball in the penalty area.
34
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Magalhães has a shot blocked. He attempts a left-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, but it is blocked.
33
Corner Corner
Arsenal wins a corner after Evanilson concedes.
33
Update Update
Foul by Álex Jiménez of Bournemouth.
33
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal won a free kick on the left wing.
33
Attempt Attempt
Declan Rice's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Gabriel Martinelli provided the assist.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Truffert for Bournemouth.
30
Update Update
Noni Madueke of Arsenal won a free kick on the right wing.
29
Update Update
Marcos Senesi from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
29
Update Update
Noni Madueke fouled an Arsenal player.
26
Attempt Attempt
Junior Kroupi's shot from the center of the box is blocked. Rayan provided the assist with a cross.
24
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal won a free kick on the left wing.
24
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres won a free kick for Arsenal on the left wing.
20
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Álex Jiménez concedes.
20
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Kai Havertz of Arsenal heads the ball from a few meters out, but it's very close to the goal. The assist comes from Declan Rice, who delivered a cross after a corner.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bournemouth takes the lead 1-0 with Junior Kroupi scoring from close range with a right-footed shot into the right corner.
12
Update Update
Noni Madueke of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
12
Update Update
Noni Madueke of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
9
Update Update
Kai Havertz of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
9
Update Update
Kai Havertz of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
8
Update Update
Fouled by Kai Havertz of Arsenal.
8
Update Update
Rayan from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
7
Update Update
Foul committed by Junior Kroupi for Bournemouth.
7
Update Update
Ben White of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
6
Update Update
James Hill from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Magalhães of Arsenal.
2
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Evanilson from Bournemouth.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: AFC Bournemouth exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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