Arouca vs Tondela Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal de Arouca Sat, 16 May - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Arouca FCA
3 Winner 1
Tondela CDT
Full Time Sat, 16 May 5:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Hyun-ju Lee - 85'
Alfonso Trezza - 77'
Taichi Fukui - 20'
Goal
|
Goal
Rony Lopes - 65'

CONTEXT

Arouca secured a convincing 3-1 win over Tondela in this league fixture. Starting strongly, the home side went into the break with a 1-0 advantage. They then added two more goals in the second half to seal the points. Possession stats showed Arouca with 53 percent of the ball while Tondela managed 47 percent. Neither team received any red cards, allowing for a full-strength contest until the end. As the designated stronger team, Arouca delivered a performance that matched their status. The significant deviation observed underscored how the result diverged from some pre-game assessments. Efficiency levels stayed consistent with the overall flow of play. Limited data on expected goals prevented a full analysis of shooting quality. The impact of key events proved decisive in shifting momentum towards the hosts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Arouca showed a significant deviation of 68.9 percent from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the stronger team's performance.
  • xG alignment: No expected goals data was available to determine alignment.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was not aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals data remained unavailable for both teams.
  • Event impact: Arouca's second half performance led to a 3-1 final score after leading 1-0 at halftime.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued affecting the match outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Carvalho Nobre

Portugal 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Vila Pereira

1st Assistant

Portugal

F. Serra Jorge Pereira

2nd Assistant

Portugal

R. Gomes Lima

4th Official

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.39
Yellow cards / match 4.42
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.37
Arouca V. Freire De Seabra
V. Freire De Seabra
VS
Tondela G. Feio
G. Feio
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 W
Santa Clara Rank: 66 D
Alverca Rank: 65 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Estoril Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Moreirense Rank: 68 W
Casa Pia Rank: 62 W
Sporting CP Rank: 88 D
Nacional Rank: 64 L
Porto Rank: 86 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arouca
31.05%
Draw
27.56%
Away Tondela
41.39%

Movement

Changes since opening
Arouca
-66.84%
Draw
+25.64%
Tondela
+41.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.29
54.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arouca
Tondela
Power Score
66.29
54.41
League Position
11
17
Global Rank
293
420

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arouca — Opponent-weighted form score
Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arouca Tondela

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Arouca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Tondela

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Arouca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tondela
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Arouca Tondela
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Arouca Tondela
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Arouca
Tondela
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Arouca
vs
Tondela
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Arouca Tondela
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Arouca 0.00
Tondela 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Arouca Tondela
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Arouca 0.00
Tondela 0.00
Arouca
Tondela
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CDT had peak pressure around 33'.
  • FCA started the game with stronger pressure.
FCA Pressure CDT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CDT reached the top pressure at 33' (76.20).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arouca FCA Home
7 matches
Tondela CDT Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
3
Goals
10
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
10
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-16T16:45:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
Uruguay
12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
T. Sousa Esgaio
Portugal
28 T. Sousa Esgaio
O. Fayed
Substitution
Egypt
66 O. Fayed
J. Sánchez de Felipe
Spain
15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
B. Kuipers
Netherlands
25 B. Kuipers
E. van Ee
Netherlands
22 E. van Ee
T. Fukui
Substitution
Japan
21 T. Fukui
A. Trezza Hernández
Uruguay
19 A. Trezza Hernández
P. Gozalbez Gilabert
Substitution
Spain
10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
N. Djouahra
Substitution
France
7 N. Djouahra
I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Substitution
Spain
17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Pitch
B. Parise Fontes
Brazil
31 B. Parise Fontes
R. Fernandes Conceição
Substitution
Portugal
27 R. Fernandes Conceição
J. Antunes da Silva
Portugal
44 J. Antunes da Silva
C. Marques
Portugal
4 C. Marques
T. Silva Manso
Portugal
48 T. Silva Manso
C. Alves Santana
Substitution
Brazil
97 C. Alves Santana
J. Rodríguez López
Ecuador
32 J. Rodríguez López
M. Aiko
Substitution
France
90 M. Aiko
H. Sequeira
Substitution
Portugal
79 H. Sequeira
P. Pereira dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
7 P. Pereira dos Santos
M. Mesquita Lopes
Portugal
16 M. Mesquita Lopes

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Capacity :
5600
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre
Nélson Filipe Vila Pereira
Francisco João Serra Jorge Pereira
Rui Miguel Gomes Lima

Statistics

Possession
FCA
52%
CDT
48%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 3
27 Dangerous attacks 59
53 Possession 47
5 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Throwins 23
17 Dribble Attempts 21
1 Hit Woodwork 0
15 Successful Headers 9
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
11 Goal Kicks 9
8 Successful Dribbles 10
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 1
94 Ball Safe 83
1 Injuries 0
10 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

87 Attacks 119
4 Counter Attacks 1
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

71 Long Passes 56
81 Successful Passes Percentage 81
35 Successful Long Passes 29
452 Passes 398
14 Key Passes 8
367 Successful Passes 321
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

57 Duels Won 47
22 Tackles 16
6 Interceptions 9
1 Saves 1

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 19
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

11 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre

Starting XI ▼

12
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Ignacio de Arruabarrena Goalkeeper
6.83
15
Javi Sánchez
Javi Sánchez Defender
6.99
25
Bas Kuipers
Bas Kuipers Defender
6.61
28
Tiago Esgaio
Tiago Esgaio Defender
6.84
66
Omar Fayed
Omar Fayed Defender
6.67
6
Diogo Monteiro
Diogo Monteiro
Defender59'
6.54
7
Naïs Djouahra
Naïs Djouahra Midfielder
6.84
14
Hyun-ju Lee
Hyun-ju Lee
Midfielder63'
6.68
10
Pablo Gozálbez
Pablo Gozálbez Midfielder
6.64
89
Pedro Santos
Pedro Santos
Midfielder79'
6.75
19
Alfonso Trezza
Alfonso Trezza Midfielder
6.7
21
Taichi Fukui
Taichi Fukui Midfielder
6.81
46
Mateo Flores
Mateo Flores
Midfielder79'
6.48
22
Espen van Ee
Espen van Ee Midfielder
6.85
17
Iván Barbero
Iván Barbero Attacker
6.79
23
Dylan Nandín
Dylan Nandín
Attacker63'
6.61
Referee : António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre

Starting XI ▼

31
Bernardo
Bernardo Goalkeeper
6.96
4
Christian Marques
Christian Marques Defender
6.68
27
Rodrigo Conceição
Rodrigo Conceição Defender
6.58
26
Arjen van der Heide
Arjen van der Heide
Attacker81'
6.61
44
João Silva
João Silva Defender
6.77
48
Tiago Manso
Tiago Manso Defender
6.69
7
Maranhão
Maranhão Midfielder
6.92
5
João Afonso
João Afonso
Defender82'
6.78
32
Juanse
Juanse Midfielder
6.69
79
Hugo Félix
Hugo Félix Midfielder
6.77
10
Joe Hodge
Joe Hodge
Midfielder73'
6.69
90
Makan Aïko
Makan Aïko Midfielder
6.81
23
B. Kimpioka
B. Kimpioka
Attacker73'
6.55
97
Cícero
Cícero Midfielder
6.75
8
Hélder Tavares
Hélder Tavares
Midfielder61'
6.53
16
Rony Lopes
Rony Lopes Attacker
7.01

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hyun-ju Lee
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
85'
82'
Event
João Afonso → Maranhão
10th Substitution
Event
Hyun-ju Lee
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
81'
81'
Event
Arjen van der Heide → Rodrigo Conceição
9th Substitution
Event
Mateo Flores → Taichi Fukui
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Pedro Santos → Pablo Gozálbez
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Alfonso Trezza
Header / 3rd Goal
77'
73'
Event
Joe Hodge → Hugo Félix
5th Substitution
73'
Event
B. Kimpioka → Makan Aïko
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Rony Lopes
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Hyun-ju Lee → Naïs Djouahra
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Dylan Nandín → Iván Barbero
4th Substitution
63'
61'
Event
Hélder Tavares → Cícero
2nd Substitution
Event
Diogo Monteiro → Omar Fayed
1st Substitution
59'
1ST-HALF
Event
Bas Kuipers
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
41'
41'
Event
Cícero
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Omar Fayed
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
39'
Event
Taichi Fukui
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
20'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lee Hyun-ju scores, making it 3-1.
82
Update Update
Joao Ricardo da Silva Afonso comes on for Pedro Henryque Pereira dos Santos.
81
Update Update
Arjen Van Der Heide comes on for Rodrigo Conceicao.
79
Update Update
Mateo Flores replaces Pablo Gozalbez Gilabert.
79
Update Update
Pedro Santos is on, and Taichi Fukui is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Esgaio attempts a header but misses the shot.
77
Update Update
Alfonso Trezza scores with a header.
73
Update Update
Benjamin Mbunga Kimpioka is on, and Makan Aiko is off.
73
Update Update
Joseph Hodge comes on for Hugo Felix Sequeira.
72
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Felix Sequeira takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
70
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Esgaio attempts a header but misses the shot.
68
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Henryque Pereira dos Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes takes a left-footed shot and scores.
63
Update Update
Dylan Nandin comes on for Ivan Martinez Gonzalvez.
63
Update Update
On Lee Hyun-ju, Off Nais Djouahra.
62
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Felix Sequeira's right-footed shot is blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Alfonso Trezza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
61
Update Update
Helder Tavares comes on for Cicero Clebson Alves Santana.
59
Update Update
Diogo Monteiro is on, and Omar Fayed is off.
57
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Felix Sequeira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Felix Sequeira's right-footed shot is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Martinez Gonzalvez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Martinez Gonzalvez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cicero Clebson Alves Santana receives a yellow card.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Omar Fayed receives a yellow card.
34
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Martinez Gonzalvez takes a shot with his head, but it is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Alfonso Trezza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Manso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Gozalbez Gilabert takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Makan Aiko's right-footed shot is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Gozalbez Gilabert takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
20
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Martinez Gonzalvez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Taichi Fukui takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
18
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Martinez Gonzalvez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Martinez Gonzalvez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
14
Update Update
Ivan Martinez Gonzalvez takes a header, but it misses the target.
13
Attempt Attempt
Alfonso Trezza takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
8
Attempt Attempt
Taichi Fukui takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, Arouca's victory over Tondela by 3 goals to 1 demonstrated their superiority on the day. With a halftime lead of 1-0, they managed the game effectively to add further goals after the interval. The absence of red cards ensured both teams could play their natural game without numerical disadvantages. Possession was balanced but Arouca made better use of their opportunities. This result reinforces Arouca's position as the stronger side in this matchup. The deviation from expectations added an element of surprise to the proceedings yet the efficiency remained steady. Overall, the match provided clear insights into team dynamics and performance levels without any major disruptions from disciplinary issues.

Arouca vs Tondela preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.