Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Mon, 18 May - 5:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
2 Winner 3
Nieciecza Nieciecza
Full Time Mon, 18 May 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Vladislavs Gutkovskis - 52'
Edu Espiau - 45+3'
Goal
|
Goal
Ivan Durdov - 90+3'
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz - 74'
Damian Hilbrycht - 12'

CONTEXT

Arka Gdynia hosted Nieciecza in a league match that finished 2-3 to the visitors. The sides were level at halftime with the score 1-1. Arka Gdynia entered as the stronger team yet failed to hold their position after the interval. Nieciecza responded with improved organization and clinical finishing to overturn the situation and collect the points. Home possession finished at 44 percent against 56 percent for the away side. The contest remained free of red cards for both teams from start to finish. The outcome underlined a clear performance gap that emerged in the second half despite initial parity. Tactical discipline and timely interventions allowed Nieciecza to dictate proceedings late on and secure the narrow victory on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Arka Gdynia 2-3 Nieciecza. Nieciecza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with overall match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The final result did not align with pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: No xG metrics were recorded to evaluate expectations.
  • Event impact: Nieciecza pulled ahead in the second half to claim the win.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued affecting the match outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

?. Kuźma

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Obukowicz

1st Assistant

Poland

P. Podbielski

2nd Assistant

Poland

M. Stępniak

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.12
Yellow cards / match 3.52
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.19
Arka Gdynia D. Banasik
D. Banasik
VS
Nieciecza M. Brosz
M. Brosz
1.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.88
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 67 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 72 D
Piast Gliwice Rank: 60 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 66 L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 L
Katowice Rank: 65 L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 W
Wisła Płock Rank: 55 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 60 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 60 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arka Gdynia
55.34%
Draw
23.87%
Away Nieciecza
20.8%

Movement

Changes since opening
Arka Gdynia
+55.15%
Draw
+18.78%
Nieciecza
-73.92%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
49.44
47.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
Power Score
49.44
47.48
League Position
17
18
Global Rank
639
720

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arka Gdynia — Opponent-weighted form score
Nieciecza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arka Gdynia Nieciecza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Arka Gdynia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nieciecza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Arka Gdynia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nieciecza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.07
25.36
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.36
43.07
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Arka Gdynia +1.62 Efficiency Index
vs
Nieciecza -1.62 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Arka Gdynia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nieciecza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Arka Gdynia Nieciecza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Arka Gdynia Nieciecza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Arka Gdynia
vs
Nieciecza
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Arka Gdynia Nieciecza
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Arka Gdynia 0.27
Nieciecza 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Arka Gdynia Nieciecza
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Arka Gdynia 0.07
Nieciecza 0.03
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Nieciecza had peak pressure around 82'.
  • Arka Gdynia started the game with stronger pressure.
Arka Gdynia Pressure Nieciecza Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Nieciecza reached the top pressure at 82' (84.49).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia Home
6 matches
Nieciecza Nieciecza Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
7
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-19T00:01:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
J. Grobelny
Poland
1 J. Grobelny
E. Gómez Hermoso
Spain
23 E. Gómez Hermoso
M. Marcjanik
Poland
29 M. Marcjanik
D. Abramowicz
Poland
33 D. Abramowicz
D. Kocyla
Substitution
Poland
11 D. Kocyla
K. Jakubczyk
Poland
35 K. Jakubczyk
M. Rzuchowski
Substitution
Poland
22 M. Rzuchowski
P. Szysz
Substitution
Poland
21 P. Szysz
Oskar Kubiak
Substitution
7 Oskar Kubiak
V. Gutkovskis
Latvia
19 V. Gutkovskis
E. Espiau Hernández
Spain
99 E. Espiau Hernández
Pitch
A. Chovan
Slovakia
1 A. Chovan
A. Putivtsev
Ukraine
77 A. Putivtsev
A. Kasperkiewicz
Poland
3 A. Kasperkiewicz
L. Masoero Masi
Argentina
5 L. Masoero Masi
D. Hilbrycht
Poland
21 D. Hilbrycht
S. Guerrero Romero
Substitution
Spain
23 S. Guerrero Romero
I. Strzałek
Substitution
Poland
86 I. Strzałek
M. Ambrosiewicz
Substitution
Poland
28 M. Ambrosiewicz
M. Wolski
Poland
6 M. Wolski
J. Jiménez Núñez
Spain
9 J. Jiménez Núñez
K. Zapolnik
Poland
25 K. Zapolnik

General Information

Date & Time :
May 18, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Miejski
Capacity :
15300
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Łukasz Kuźma
Michal Obukowicz
P. Podbielski
Mateusz Stępniak

Statistics

Possession
Arka Gdynia
45%
Nieciecza
55%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 4
59 Dangerous attacks 44
44 Possession 56
2 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 19
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

0 Injuries 1
21 Throwins 19
10 Successful Dribbles Percentage 10
10 Dribble Attempts 10
1 Successful Dribbles 1
6 Goal Kicks 11
1 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 2
74 Ball Safe 83
10 Goal Attempts 8
4 Substitutions 4

Attacking

88 Attacks 95
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

238 Successful Passes 333
324 Passes 427
69 Long Passes 73
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
27 Successful Long Passes 36
6 Key Passes 8
73 Successful Passes Percentage 78

Defensive

13 Tackles 17
1 Saves 1
38 Duels Won 65
9 Interceptions 5

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 5
18 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

19 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Łukasz Kuźma

Starting XI ▼

1
Jedrzej Grobelny
Jedrzej Grobelny Goalkeeper
23
Kike Hermoso
Kike Hermoso Defender
29
Michal Marcjanik
Michal Marcjanik Defender
33
Dawid Abramowicz
Dawid Abramowicz Defender
7
O. Kubiak
O. Kubiak Midfielder
94
Dawid Gojny
Dawid Gojny
Defender79'
11
Dawid Kocyla
Dawid Kocyla Midfielder
2
Marc Navarro
Marc Navarro
Defender68'
21
Patryk Szysz
Patryk Szysz Midfielder
37
Sebastian Kerk
Sebastian Kerk
Midfielder68'
22
Michal Rzuchowski
Michal Rzuchowski Midfielder
10
Aurélien Nguiamba
Aurélien Nguiamba
Midfielder79'
35
Kamil Jakubczyk
Kamil Jakubczyk Midfielder
19
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Vladislavs Gutkovskis Attacker
99
Edu Espiau
Edu Espiau Attacker
Referee : Łukasz Kuźma

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Chovan
Adrian Chovan Goalkeeper
3
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz Defender
5
Lucas Masoero
Lucas Masoero Defender
77
Artem Putivtsev
Artem Putivtsev Defender
6
Maciej Wolski
Maciej Wolski Midfielder
21
Damian Hilbrycht
Damian Hilbrycht Midfielder
23
Sergio Guerrero
Sergio Guerrero Midfielder
32
Milosz Matysik
Milosz Matysik
Defender90+5'
28
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Maciej Ambrosiewicz Midfielder
26
Wojciech Jakubik
Wojciech Jakubik
Midfielder66'
86
Igor Strzalek
Igor Strzalek Midfielder
53
Andrzej Trubeha
Andrzej Trubeha
Attacker46'
9
Jesús Jiménez
Jesús Jiménez Attacker
25
Kamil Zapolnik
Kamil Zapolnik Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Milosz Matysik → Sergio Guerrero
8th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Ivan Durdov
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
89'
Event
Ivan Durdov → Andrzej Trubeha
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Artem Putivtsev
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Aurélien Nguiamba → Michal Rzuchowski
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Dawid Gojny → O. Kubiak
5th Substitution
79'
74'
Event
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Sebastian Kerk → Patryk Szysz
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Marc Navarro → Dawid Kocyla
4th Substitution
68'
66'
Event
Wojciech Jakubik → Maciej Ambrosiewicz
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Damian Hilbrycht
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
52'
46'
Event
Andrzej Trubeha → Igor Strzalek
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Edu Espiau
Goal awarded
45+7'
Event
Edu Espiau
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+3'
42'
Event
Maciej Wolski
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Kike Hermoso
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
25'
Event
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
12'
Event
Damian Hilbrycht
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Durdov takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Jakubczyk takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Eduardo David Espiau Hernandez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Milosz Matysik replaces Sergio Guerrero.
89
Update Update
Ivan Durdov is on, and Andrzej Trubeha is off.
82
Attempt Attempt
Aurelien Nguiamba takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Aurelien Nguiamba takes a left-footed shot but misses.
79
Update Update
Aurelien Nguiamba comes on for Michal Rzuchowski.
79
Update Update
Dawid Gojny is on, and Oskar Kubiak is off.
74
Attempt Attempt
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz takes a left-footed shot and scores.
74
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Masoero attempts a header but misses the shot.
72
Update Update
Kamil Zapolnik's header is blocked.
68
Attempt Attempt
Wojciech Jakubik misses with a left-footed shot.
68
Update Update
Marcos Navarro comes on for Dawid Kocyla.
68
Update Update
Sebastian Kerk replaces Patryk Szysz.
66
Update Update
Wojciech Jakubik is on, and Maciej Ambrosiewicz is off.
65
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Szysz takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Vladislavs Gutkovskis takes a left-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Jimenez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Zapolnik takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
57
Attempt Attempt
Andrzej Trubeha takes a left-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Vladislavs Gutkovskis takes a left-footed shot and scores.
46
Update Update
Andrzej Trubeha is on, and Igor Strzalek is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Eduardo David Espiau Hernandez takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
45
Update Update
The VAR decision confirms a goal for Eduardo David Espiau Hernandez.
44
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Szysz takes a left-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Vladislavs Gutkovskis takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Igor Strzalek takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Maciej Ambrosiewicz takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Szysz takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Oskar Kubiak's right-footed shot is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Maciej Ambrosiewicz takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Damian Hilbrycht scores with a right-footed shot.
10
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Jakubczyk takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Szysz takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Dawid Kocyla's right-footed shot is saved.
8
Attempt Attempt
Maciej Wolski's right-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Nieciecza demonstrated notable resilience in securing the 2-3 victory at Arka Gdynia. After an even first half that ended 1-1 the visitors improved their structure and exploited openings to reverse the scoreline. Possession figures favored Nieciecza at 56 percent and supported their growing control. The absence of red cards kept the numerical balance intact for the full ninety minutes. Arka Gdynia struggled to translate home status into sustained pressure once the second period began. This result highlights the importance of second-half adjustments when early parity exists. Both teams will review key moments that decided the narrow margin. Nieciecza can take confidence from overcoming the stronger side on the day.

Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.