Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Sun, 19 Apr - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
0 Winner 3
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 3:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
|
Goal
Samed Bazdar - 73'
Jesús Imaz - 38', 9'

CONTEXT

Arka Gdynia hosted Jagiellonia Białystok in a competitive encounter that concluded with a 0-1 victory for the visitors, despite Arka being deemed the stronger team beforehand. Possession was evenly split at 49% for the home side and 51% for Jagiellonia, reflecting a balanced affair. The halftime score stood at 0-2 for Jagiellonia, but the final tally adjusted to 0-1, suggesting potential second-half adjustments or scoring revisions. No red cards were issued, maintaining full squad participation throughout. The result showed a significant 56.7% deviation in favor of Jagiellonia, marking a notable upset against pre-match structural assessments. Market probabilities aligned with the outcome, and efficiency metrics remained in line with expectations. Absent xG data, the analysis hinges on possession, deviations, and event logs, highlighting Jagiellonia's clinical edge in a low-scoring game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Jagiellonia Białystok achieved a significant 56.7% deviation from pre-match structural expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match assessments for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment with outcome.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

W. Myć

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Sokolnicki

1st Assistant

M. Kostrzewa

2nd Assistant

M. Pelka

4th Official

Arka Gdynia D. Banasik
D. Banasik
VS
Jagiellonia Białystok A. Siemieniec
A. Siemieniec
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cracovia Kraków Rank: D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: W
Korona Kielce Rank: L
Widzew Lodz Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: W
Radomiak Radom Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Korona Kielce Rank: D
Lech Poznań Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: L
Katowice Rank: W
Piast Gliwice Rank: L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arka Gdynia
29.43%
Draw
27.27%
Away Jagiellonia Białystok
43.3%

Movement

Changes since opening
Arka Gdynia
+28.94%
Draw
+25.36%
Jagiellonia Białystok
-54.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.63
24.91
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia Białystok
Power Score
26.63
24.91
League Position
16
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arka Gdynia — Opponent-weighted form score
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arka Gdynia Jagiellonia Białystok

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Arka Gdynia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Arka Gdynia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jagiellonia Białystok
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.55
22.35
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.35
42.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Arka Gdynia +1.87 Efficiency Index
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok -1.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia Białystok
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Arka Gdynia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jagiellonia Białystok
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Arka Gdynia Jagiellonia Białystok
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Arka Gdynia Jagiellonia Białystok
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia Białystok
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Arka Gdynia
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Arka Gdynia Jagiellonia Białystok
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Arka Gdynia 0.22
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Arka Gdynia Jagiellonia Białystok
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Arka Gdynia 0.06
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.00
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia Białystok
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Arka Gdynia had peak pressure around 22'.
  • Arka Gdynia started the game with stronger pressure.
Arka Gdynia Pressure Jagiellonia Białystok Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Arka Gdynia reached the top pressure at 22' (82.78).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia Home
15 matches
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Away
Match Record
2
Wins
11
2
Draws
2
11
Losses
2
Goals
13
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
13
-19
Goal Difference
+19

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:05:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Grobelny
Poland
1 J. Grobelny
D. Zator
Substitution
Canada
4 D. Zator
E. Gómez Hermoso
Spain
23 E. Gómez Hermoso
M. Marcjanik
Poland
29 M. Marcjanik
D. Gojny
Poland
94 D. Gojny
K. Jakubczyk
Poland
35 K. Jakubczyk
A. Nguiamba
Substitution
France
10 A. Nguiamba
D. Kocyla
Substitution
Poland
11 D. Kocyla
S. Kerk
Substitution
Germany
37 S. Kerk
Oskar Kubiak
Substitution
7 Oskar Kubiak
V. Gutkovskis
Latvia
19 V. Gutkovskis
Pitch
S. Abramowicz
Poland
50 S. Abramowicz
G. Serrão Montóia
Portugal
23 G. Serrão Montóia
Y. Kobayashi
Japan
4 Y. Kobayashi
B. Cardoso Vital
Portugal
13 B. Cardoso Vital
N. Wojtuszek
Poland
15 N. Wojtuszek
B. Mazurek
Substitution
Poland
86 B. Mazurek
T. Romanczuk
Poland
6 T. Romanczuk
K. Szmyt
Substitution
Poland
77 K. Szmyt
J. Imaz Ballesté
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Imaz Ballesté
A. Pozo Pozo
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Pozo Pozo
A. Pululu
Substitution
France
10 A. Pululu

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 19, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Miejski
Capacity :
15300
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Pawel Sokolnicki
Mikołaj Kostrzewa
Maciej Pelka
Wojciech Myć

Statistics

Possession
Arka Gdynia
51%
Jagiellonia Białystok
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 1
77 Dangerous attacks 48
49 Possession 51
7 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

14 Goal Attempts 8
77 Ball Safe 84
0 Injuries 2
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
20 Throwins 19
11 Dribble Attempts 7
6 Successful Dribbles 3
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
4 Goal Kicks 9
0 Assists 3

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 2
104 Attacks 85

Possession

284 Successful Passes 317
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
347 Passes 387
44 Long Passes 36
82 Successful Passes Percentage 82
23 Successful Long Passes 13

Defensive

2 Saves 6
8 Tackles 15
49 Duels Won 46
12 Interceptions 3

Build-up

9 Accurate Crosses 4
33 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

12 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI ▼

1
Jedrzej Grobelny
Jedrzej Grobelny Goalkeeper
7.19
4
Dominick Zator
Dominick Zator Defender
6.48
2
Marc Navarro
Marc Navarro
Defender78'
6.93
23
Kike Hermoso
Kike Hermoso Defender
6.8
29
Michal Marcjanik
Michal Marcjanik Defender
6.74
94
Dawid Gojny
Dawid Gojny Defender
6.78
7
O. Kubiak
O. Kubiak Midfielder
6.93
21
Patryk Szysz
Patryk Szysz
Midfielder86'
6.52
10
Aurélien Nguiamba
Aurélien Nguiamba Midfielder
6.59
99
Edu Espiau
Edu Espiau
Attacker78'
6.73
11
Dawid Kocyla
Dawid Kocyla Midfielder
6.68
31
Nazariy Rusyn
Nazariy Rusyn
Attacker66'
6.74
35
Kamil Jakubczyk
Kamil Jakubczyk Midfielder
6.74
37
Sebastian Kerk
Sebastian Kerk Midfielder
7.04
6
Luis Perea
Luis Perea
Midfielder78'
6.49
19
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Vladislavs Gutkovskis Attacker
6.81
Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI ▼

50
Slawomir Abramowicz
Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper
6.86
4
Yuki Kobayashi
Yuki Kobayashi Defender
6.64
13
Bernardo Vital
Bernardo Vital Defender
7.07
15
Norbert Wojtuszek
Norbert Wojtuszek Defender
6.93
23
Guilherme Montóia
Guilherme Montóia Defender
6.8
6
Taras Romanczuk
Taras Romanczuk Midfielder
7.02
7
Álex Pozo
Álex Pozo Midfielder
6.82
80
Zachary Zalewski
Zachary Zalewski
Midfielder79'
6.63
11
Jesús Imaz
Jesús Imaz Midfielder
2
7.25
14
Samed Bazdar
Samed Bazdar
Attacker71'
6.71
77
Kajetan Szmyt
Kajetan Szmyt Midfielder
6.6
9
Dimitris Rallis
Dimitris Rallis
Attacker87'
6.66
86
Bartosz Mazurek
Bartosz Mazurek Midfielder
6.84
85
Eryk Kozlowski
Eryk Kozlowski
Midfielder87'
6.6
10
Afimico Pululu
Afimico Pululu Attacker
7.01
19
Matías Nahuel
Matías Nahuel
Midfielder71'
6.78

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Eryk Kozlowski → Bartosz Mazurek
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Dimitris Rallis → Kajetan Szmyt
10th Substitution
Event
Patryk Szysz → O. Kubiak
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Luis Perea
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
84'
80'
Event
Zachary Zalewski
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
80'
Event
7th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Zachary Zalewski → Álex Pozo
7th Substitution
Event
Marc Navarro → Dominick Zator
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Edu Espiau → Aurélien Nguiamba
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Luis Perea → Sebastian Kerk
6th Substitution
78'
75'
Event
Álex Pozo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Samed Bazdar
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
71'
Event
Samed Bazdar → Jesús Imaz
2nd Substitution
71'
Event
Matías Nahuel → Afimico Pululu
3rd Substitution
Event
Nazariy Rusyn → Dawid Kocyla
1st Substitution
66'
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Jesús Imaz
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
34'
Event
Yuki Kobayashi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
24'
Event
Taras Romanczuk
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
9'
Event
Jesús Imaz
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Dawid Gojny
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
2'

CONCLUSION

Jagiellonia Białystok secured a narrow 0-1 win away at Arka Gdynia, overcoming halftime leads and structural favoritism toward the hosts. The significant deviation underscores Jagiellonia's effective execution despite even possession. Market alignment confirms the result fit pre-match projections, with efficiency holding steady. Lacking xG, the focus on possession and events reveals a disciplined away performance. No disruptions from reds or adjustments allowed pure tactical play, enabling Jagiellonia to capitalize minimally for the points.

Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Białystok preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.