Argentina vs Egypt Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Atlanta Stadium Tue, 7 Jul - 4:00 PM
World Cup
Argentina ARG
3 Winner 2
Egypt EGY
Full Time Tue, 7 Jul 4:00 PM
Round of 16
Enzo Fernández - 90+2'
Lionel Messi - 83'
Cristian Romero  - 79'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Argentina secured a 3-2 victory over Egypt after trailing at the interval. Egypt took a 1-0 lead into halftime, but Argentina responded with three second-half goals to overturn the deficit and claim the win. The home side controlled 64 percent of possession and generated an expected goals total of 3.18 against Egypt's 0.93, producing a differential of 2.25. Despite a significant 28.9 percent pre-match deviation favoring Argentina, the outcome remained consistent with underlying metrics. No red cards were issued during the contest, preserving full team complements for the duration. The result confirmed Argentina as the stronger side and the eventual winner on the day.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Argentina recorded a significant 28.9 percent deviation from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final 3-2 score aligned with the xG differential of 2.25.
  • Market alignment: The result proved consistent with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Argentina posted 3.18 xG while Egypt managed 0.93 xG.
  • Event impact: Egypt led 1-0 at halftime before Argentina scored three times after the break.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, producing zero distortion to team structures.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Argentina L. Scaloni
L. Scaloni
VS
Egypt H. Hussein
H. Hussein
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cape Verde Islands Rank: W
Jordan Rank: W
Austria Rank: W
Algeria Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Australia Rank: D
Iran Rank: D
New Zealand Rank: W
Belgium Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Argentina
71.07%
Draw
20.37%
Away Egypt
8.56%

Movement

Changes since opening
Argentina
-24.16%
Draw
+15.79%
Egypt
+8.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
42.22
21.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Argentina
Egypt
Power Score
42.22
21.48
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
3
29

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Argentina — Opponent-weighted form score
Egypt — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Argentina Egypt

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Argentina

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Egypt

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Argentina
vs
Egypt
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Argentina Egypt
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
36%
18%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.14 vs -0.16
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Argentina Egypt
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
18%
36%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.16 vs -1.14
Argentina
Egypt
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Argentina
vs
Egypt
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Argentina Egypt
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Argentina 0.00
Egypt 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Argentina Egypt
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Argentina 0.00
Egypt 0.00
Argentina
Egypt
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ARG had peak pressure around 43'.
  • EGY started the game with stronger pressure.
ARG Pressure EGY Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ARG reached the top pressure at 43' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Argentina ARG Home
0 matches
Egypt EGY Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:02:14+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Martínez
Argentina
23 D. Martínez
N. Molina Lucero
Substitution
Argentina
26 N. Molina Lucero
C. Romero
Substitution
Argentina
13 C. Romero
L. Martínez
Argentina
6 L. Martínez
N. Alejandro Tagliafico
Substitution
Argentina
3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
R. de Paul
Substitution
Argentina
7 R. de Paul
A. Mac Allister
Argentina
20 A. Mac Allister
E. Fernández
Argentina
24 E. Fernández
T. Almada
Argentina
16 T. Almada
L. Messi
Argentina
10 L. Messi
L. Martínez
Argentina
22 L. Martínez

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 07, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 16
Stadium :
Atlanta Stadium
Capacity :
68239
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Statistics

Possession
ARG
62%
EGY
38%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
6 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 3
77 Dangerous attacks 18
64 Possession 36
6 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 16
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

58 Ball Safe 73
1 Penalties 0
2 Goal Kicks 13
13 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 7
19 Throwins 25
1 Hit Woodwork 0
7 Successful Headers 7
3 Assists 2
0 Injuries 2
16 Dribble Attempts 26
11 Successful Dribbles 10
69 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38

Attacking

139 Attacks 77
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

31 Long Passes 34
602 Passes 348
540 Successful Passes 289
90 Successful Passes Percentage 83
16 Key Passes 4
19 Successful Long Passes 11
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

Defensive

0 Saves 4
20 Tackles 15
7 Interceptions 10
50 Duels Won 45

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 8
8 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
13 Fouls 11

Lineup

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
6.58
3
Nicolás Tagliafico
Nicolás Tagliafico Defender
6.67
—
Nicolás Tagliafico
66'
6
Lisandro Martínez
Lisandro Martínez Defender
7.64
13
Cristian Romero
Cristian Romero Defender
6.92
—
Cristian Romero 
90+5'
26
Nahuel Molina
Nahuel Molina Defender
6.68
—
Nahuel Molina
73'
7
Rodrigo De Paul
Rodrigo De Paul Midfielder
7.06
—
Rodrigo De Paul
66'
16
Thiago Almada
Thiago Almada Midfielder
6.76
20
Alexis Mac Allister
Alexis Mac Allister Midfielder
7.12
24
Enzo Fernández
Enzo Fernández Midfielder
7.2
10
Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi Attacker
8.96
22
Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez Attacker
6.65

Starting XI ▼

23
Oufa Shobeir
Oufa Shobeir Goalkeeper
7.26
2
Yasser Ibrahim
Yasser Ibrahim Defender
6.77
3
Mohamed Hany
Mohamed Hany Defender
7.02
4
Hossam Abdelmaguid
Hossam Abdelmaguid Defender
6.73
5
Ramy Rabia
Ramy Rabia Defender
6.81
8
Emam Ashour
Emam Ashour Midfielder
7.2
—
Emam Ashour
46'
10
Mohamed Salah
Mohamed Salah Midfielder
7.46
11
Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf
Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf Midfielder
7.02
—
Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf
80'
14
Hamdy Fathy
Hamdy Fathy Midfielder
6.8
19
Marwan Ateya
Marwan Ateya Midfielder
7.04
22
Omar Marmoush
Omar Marmoush Attacker
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
90+9'
Event
Hossam Eyad
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+8'
Event
Marwan Ateya
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Zizo → Mohanad Lasheen
9th Substitution
Event
Facundo Medina → Julián Álvarez
7th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Nicolás Otamendi → Cristian Romero 
8th Substitution
90+5'
90+4'
Event
Hamdy Fathy
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Oufa Shobeir
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Enzo Fernández
Header / 5th Goal
90+2'
Event
Lionel Messi
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
83'
80'
Event
Omar Marmoush → Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf
6th Substitution
Event
Cristian Romero 
Header / 3rd Goal
79'
Event
Gonzalo Montiel  → Nahuel Molina
4th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Mahmoud Trezeguet → Haissem Hassan
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Nico González → Nicolás Tagliafico
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Lautaro Martínez → Rodrigo De Paul
3rd Substitution
66'
60'
Event
Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf
Goal disallowed
46'
Event
Hamdy Fathy → Emam Ashour
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Lionel Messi
Goalkeeper save
21'
15'
Event
Yasser Ibrahim
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Argentina leads 3-2 after Enzo Fernández scores with a header from the center of the box following a fast break.
90
Update Update
Trezeguet's header from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Mohamed Hany's cross.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mostafa Shobeir from Egypt receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hamdi Fathy from Egypt receives a yellow card.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Argentina: Nicolás Otamendi comes on for Cristian Romero.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Argentina: Facundo Medina comes on for Julián Alvarez.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Egypt: Zizo comes on for Mohanad Lasheen.
90
Update Update
Nico González commits a foul for Argentina.
90
Update Update
Zizo from Egypt wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Lautaro Martínez wins a free kick for Argentina in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Marwan Attia from Egypt commits a foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marwan Attia of Egypt receives a yellow card for a foul.
89
Update Update
Lautaro Martínez wins a free kick for Argentina on the right wing.
89
Update Update
Karim Hafez commits a foul for Egypt.
87
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Lionel Messi scores for Argentina with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the high center of the goal. The match is now 2-2, assisted by Gonzalo Montiel.
87
Update Update
Omar Marmoush wins a free kick for Egypt in the defensive half.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt missed. Lautaro Martínez (Argentina) takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box, but it goes wide to the right.
82
Update Update
Lautaro Martínez of Argentina misses a header from the right side of the six-yard box, sending it just to the right. The assist came from Lionel Messi.
82
Corner Corner
Argentina wins a corner after Mohamed Salah concedes.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Egypt: Omar Marmoush comes on for Mostafa Zico.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cristian Romero scores for Argentina with a header from the center of the box. The score is now Argentina 1, Egypt 2.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Argentina after Trezeguet concedes.
78
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Lionel Messi's right-footed shot from the center of the box for Argentina is blocked.
77
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Trezeguet from Egypt, who took a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
76
Update Update
Offside for Argentina. Julián Alvarez is caught offside.
75
Attempt Attempt
Lautaro Martínez from Argentina misses a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the right. The attempt was assisted by Nico González with a cross.
74
Attempt Attempt
Lautaro Martínez's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Argentina: Gonzalo Montiel comes on for Nahuel Molina.
73
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Egypt: Trezeguet comes on for Haissem Hassan due to an injury.
71
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Lisandro Martínez (Argentina) took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
70
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Egypt leads 2-0 over Argentina. Mostafa Zico scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by Haissem Hassan after a fast break.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Argentina after Mostafa Zico concedes.
67
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded to Argentina after Mostafa Zico concedes.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Mohamed Salah (Egypt).
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Argentina: Lautaro Martínez comes on for Rodrigo De Paul.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Argentina: Nico González comes on for Nicolás Tagliafico.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Argentina after Mostafa Zico concedes.
64
Update Update
Lisandro Martínez wins a free kick for Argentina on the left wing.
61
Update Update
Attempt blocked. Alexis Mac Allister's header from the left side of the six-yard box is blocked. Lionel Messi provided the assist with a cross.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Argentina after Mostafa Zico concedes.
59
Update Update
VAR decision confirms no goal. The score remains Argentina 0, Egypt 1.
58
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Egypt leads 2-0 over Argentina. Mostafa Zico scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box after a quick counterattack.
58
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Paredes' right-footed shot from outside the box for Argentina is blocked. Nahuel Molina provided the assist.
58
Update Update
VAR is checking the goal by Mostafa Zico for Egypt.
58
Update Update
Lisandro Martínez wins a free kick for Argentina on the left wing.
55
Update Update
Lionel Messi wins a free kick for Argentina in the attacking half.
55
Update Update
Hamdi Fathy commits a foul for Egypt.
54
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
54
Update Update
Delay in the match in Argentina.
53
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Leandro Paredes (Argentina) takes a right-footed shot from outside the box after a set piece.
52
Update Update
Leandro Paredes wins a free kick for Argentina in the attacking half.
52
Update Update
Foul committed by Mohamed Salah (Egypt).
48
Update Update
Nicolás Tagliafico commits a foul for Argentina.
48
Update Update
Haissem Hassan from Egypt is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
48
Update Update
Julián Alvarez commits a foul for Argentina.
48
Update Update
Mostafa Shobeir from Egypt is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
47
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Rodrigo De Paul from Argentina has his right-footed shot from outside the box saved.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Egypt: Hamdi Fathy comes on for Emam Ashour due to an injury.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Argentina 0, Egypt 1.
46
Update Update
Lisandro Martínez commits a foul for Argentina.
46
Update Update
Mohamed Salah wins a free kick for Egypt in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Julián Alvarez commits a foul for Argentina.
45
Update Update
Mohamed Salah wins a free kick for Egypt in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Julián Alvarez commits a foul for Argentina.
45
Update Update
Ramy Rabia from Egypt wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Ramy Rabia from Egypt.
45
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
45
Update Update
Nicolás Tagliafico is caught offside for Argentina.
44
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Julián Alvarez (Argentina) takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
44
Update Update
Lionel Messi wins a free kick for Argentina on the right wing.
43
Corner Corner
Nicolás Tagliafico (Argentina) misses an attempt with a header from the right side of the six-yard box after a corner.
41
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Argentina after Mostafa Shobeir concedes.
39
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Mostafa Shobeir from Egypt.
39
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Julián Alvarez from Argentina has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the center of the goal by Mostafa Shobeir from Egypt. Nicolás Tagliafico provided the assist.
38
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Lionel Messi (Argentina) takes a left-footed shot from outside the box.
35
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Karim Hafez takes a right-footed shot from outside the box for Egypt.
33
Update Update
Julián Alvarez from Argentina is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Mohanad Lasheen of Egypt.
32
Update Update
VAR is checking for another reason.
31
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Lionel Messi's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
30
Update Update
Alexis Mac Allister wins a free kick for Argentina in the attacking half.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Marwan Attia of Egypt.
29
Attempt Attempt
Enzo Fernández's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Alexis Mac Allister's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
23
Update Update
Lisandro Martínez commits a foul for Argentina.
23
Update Update
Mohamed Salah wins a free kick for Egypt in the defensive half.
23
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
21
Update Update
Cristian Romero commits a foul for Argentina.
21
Update Update
Emam Ashour from Egypt is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
21
Corner Corner
Penalty saved! Mostafa Shobeir from Egypt saves a left-footed shot from Lionel Messi of Argentina, which was aimed at the bottom right corner.
19
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Argentina as Nicolás Tagliafico is fouled in the penalty area.
19
Update Update
Penalty conceded by Haissem Hassan of Egypt for a foul in the penalty area.
18
Update Update
Julián Alvarez wins a free kick for Argentina in the defensive half.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Yasser Ibrahim of Egypt.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Egypt takes the lead 1-0 with a header from Yasser Ibrahim in the center of the box following a corner.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Egypt after Lisandro Martínez concedes.
13
Update Update
Rodrigo De Paul commits a foul for Argentina.
13
Update Update
Emam Ashour from Egypt is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
11
Update Update
Enzo Fernández commits a foul for Argentina.
11
Update Update
Karim Hafez from Egypt is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
9
Update Update
Rodrigo De Paul is caught offside for Argentina.
7
Update Update
Nicolás Tagliafico commits a foul for Argentina.
7
Update Update
Haissem Hassan from Egypt is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
5
Update Update
Enzo Fernández commits a foul for Argentina.
5
Update Update
Mohamed Salah wins a free kick for Egypt in the defensive half.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Francois Letexier.

CONCLUSION

Argentina demonstrated clear dominance through sustained possession and chance creation to overcome an early deficit and defeat Egypt 3-2. The second-half adjustments proved decisive as the stronger side converted their underlying superiority into a match-winning performance. With expected goals heavily favoring Argentina and no disciplinary interruptions, the contest followed a logical progression from data to result. Egypt's halftime advantage could not be sustained against the weight of opportunities conceded. This outcome reinforces Argentina's capacity to recover from adverse scorelines while maintaining structural control. The absence of red cards ensured both teams operated at full strength, allowing metrics to dictate the narrative without external distortion.

Argentina vs Egypt preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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