Antwerp vs Standard Liège Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Bosuilstadion Sun, 3 May - 2:00 PM
Pro League
Antwerp ANT
0 Winner 5
Standard Liège STL
Full Time Sun, 3 May 2:00 PM
Round 6 Conference League Play-off Group
|
Goal
Rafiki Saïd - 62', 48'
David Bates - 42'
Timothé Nkada - 38'
Yuto Tsunashima - 33' (Own Goal)
Kiki Kouyaté 90' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Standard Liège delivered a commanding 5-0 victory over Antwerp in the Belgian Pro League, defying the home side's 64% possession dominance. The away team surged to a 3-0 halftime lead, exploiting Antwerp's defensive frailties with clinical precision. A red card to Antwerp early in the second half triggered a collapse, as Standard Liège added two more goals to seal a rout. Despite null xG data, the result underscored Standard Liège's superiority as the pre-identified stronger team. Antwerp's ball control yielded no goals, revealing stark inefficiencies in chance creation and conversion. The minimal 2.7% structural deviation favored the winners, with market alignment confirming pre-match sentiments. This performance cements Standard Liège's credentials while exposing Antwerp's vulnerabilities under pressure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited minimal 2.7% structural deviation favoring Standard Liège.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from available data.
  • Event impact: Red card to Antwerp decisively altered match momentum.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion dominated second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Vergoote

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Clerkx

4th Official

M. Seeldraeyers

1st Assistant

M. Tiesters

2nd Assistant

Antwerp J. Oosting
J. Oosting
VS
Standard Liège V. Euvrard
V. Euvrard
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Westerlo Rank: 71 W
Standard Liège Rank: 70 W
OH Leuven Rank: 66 W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 68 L
Genk Rank: 76 L
OH Leuven Rank: 65 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genk Rank: 77 D
Antwerp Rank: 70 L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 69 W
Westerlo Rank: 71 L
OH Leuven Rank: 65 W
Westerlo Rank: 71 D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 8 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Antwerp
0.77%
Draw
1.91%
Away Standard Liège
97.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.32
70.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Antwerp
Standard Liège
Power Score
70.32
70.92
League Position
10
8
Global Rank
198
186

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Antwerp — Opponent-weighted form score
Standard Liège — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Antwerp Standard Liège

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Antwerp

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Standard Liège

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Antwerp ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Standard Liège
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.80
45.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
45.00
21.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Antwerp -2.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Standard Liège +2.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Antwerp
Standard Liège
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Antwerp ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Standard Liège
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Antwerp Standard Liège
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Antwerp Standard Liège
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Antwerp
Standard Liège
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Antwerp
vs
Standard Liège
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Antwerp Standard Liège
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Antwerp 0.19
Standard Liège 0.63
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Antwerp Standard Liège
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Antwerp 0.21
Standard Liège 0.00
Antwerp
Standard Liège
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ANT had peak pressure around 14'.
  • ANT started the game with stronger pressure.
ANT Pressure STL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ANT reached the top pressure at 14' (94.43).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Antwerp ANT Home
21 matches
Standard Liège STL Away
Match Record
8
Wins
5
8
Draws
8
5
Losses
8
Goals
35
Goals Scored
23
23
Goals Conceded
35
+12
Goal Difference
-12

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:04:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
T. Nozawa
Japan
41 T. Nozawa
Z. Van Den Bosch
Belgium
33 Z. Van Den Bosch
Y. Tsunashima
Substitution
Japan
4 Y. Tsunashima
D. Foulon
Belgium
5 D. Foulon
A. Valencia
Ecuador
14 A. Valencia
D. Praet
Substitution
Belgium
8 D. Praet
Xander Dierckx
Belgium
78 Xander Dierckx
E. Tuypens
Substitution
Belgium
56 E. Tuypens
Y. Hamdaoui
Substitution
Morocco
43 Y. Hamdaoui
C. Scott
Germany
30 C. Scott
G. Kerk
Substitution
Netherlands
7 G. Kerk
Pitch
L. Epolo Matthieu
Belgium
1 L. Epolo Matthieu
H. Lawrence
England
18 H. Lawrence
D. Bates
Scotland
4 D. Bates
I. Hautekiet
Belgium
25 I. Hautekiet
G. Mortensen
Denmark
3 G. Mortensen
I. Karamoko
France
20 I. Karamoko
C. Nielsen
Substitution
Denmark
94 C. Nielsen
M. Fossey
Substitution
United States
13 M. Fossey
R. Said Ahamada
Substitution
Comoros
17 R. Said Ahamada
A. Adnane
Substitution
Belgium
11 A. Adnane
T. NKada
Substitution
France
59 T. NKada

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 6 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
Bosuilstadion
Capacity :
16649
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
K. Clerkx
Jasper Vergoote
Michele Seeldraeyers
Martijn Tiesters

Statistics

Possession
ANT
61%
STL
39%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 5
2 Big Chances Created 4
11 Shots 15
59 Dangerous attacks 24
64 Possession 36
7 Corners 3
5 Free kicks 18
3 Yellow Cards 0
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

26 Dribble Attempts 13
23 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
4 Goal Kicks 7
23 Throwins 18
6 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Assists 3
0 Injuries 1
8 Goal Attempts 10
82 Ball Safe 81
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

150 Attacks 53
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
473 Successful Passes 240
547 Passes 313
38 Successful Long Passes 14
86 Successful Passes Percentage 77
67 Long Passes 47
10 Key Passes 13

Defensive

16 Tackles 26
36 Duels Won 59
17 Interceptions 11
4 Saves 7

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 6
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
18 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Starting XI ▼

41
Taishi Brandon Nozawa
Taishi Brandon Nozawa Goalkeeper
6.96
4
Yuto Tsunashima
Yuto Tsunashima Defender
6.88
20
Rein Van Helden
Rein Van Helden
Defender66'
6.94
5
Daam Foulon
Daam Foulon Defender
6.82
33
Zeno Van Den Bosch
Zeno Van Den Bosch Defender
6.85
8
Dennis Praet
Dennis Praet Midfielder
6.92
16
Mauricio Benitez
Mauricio Benitez
Midfielder85'
6.88
14
Anthony Valencia
Anthony Valencia Midfielder
6.9
56
Eran Tuypens
Eran Tuypens Midfielder
6.71
25
Kiki Kouyaté
Kiki Kouyaté
Defender66'
6.93
78
Xander Dierckx
Xander Dierckx Midfielder
6.42
7
Gyrano Kerk
Gyrano Kerk Attacker
6.84
9
Marwan Alsahafi
Marwan Alsahafi
Attacker66'
6.59
30
Christopher Scott
Christopher Scott Attacker
6.98
43
Youssef Hamdaoui
Youssef Hamdaoui Attacker
6.71
22
Farouck Adekami
Farouck Adekami
Midfielder46'
6.86
Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Starting XI ▼

1
Matthieu Epolo
Matthieu Epolo Goalkeeper
7.06
4
David Bates
David Bates Defender
6.86
18
Henry Lawrence
Henry Lawrence Defender
6.68
25
Ibe Hautekiet
Ibe Hautekiet Defender
6.87
3
Gustav Julius Mortensen
Gustav Julius Mortensen Midfielder
6.67
13
Marlon Fossey
Marlon Fossey Midfielder
6.85
24
Josué Homawoo
Josué Homawoo
Defender55'
6.84
20
Ibrahim Karamoko
Ibrahim Karamoko Midfielder
6.73
94
Casper Nielsen
Casper Nielsen Midfielder
6.82
8
Nayel Mehssatou
Nayel Mehssatou
Defender82'
6.5
11
Adnane Abid
Adnane Abid Attacker
6.85
7
Tobias Mohr
Tobias Mohr
Midfielder63'
6.92
17
Rafiki Saïd
Rafiki Saïd Attacker
2
6.83
26
Bernard Nguene
Bernard Nguene
Attacker82'
6.7
59
Timothé Nkada
Timothé Nkada Attacker
6.48
10
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Attacker63'
6.71

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kiki Kouyaté
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
90'
Event
Mauricio Benitez → Dennis Praet
10th Substitution
85'
82'
Event
Nayel Mehssatou → Casper Nielsen
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Bernard Nguene → Rafiki Saïd
9th Substitution
Event
Kiki Kouyaté
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
72'
Event
Marwan Alsahafi → Gyrano Kerk
7th Substitution
66'
Event
Kiki Kouyaté → Eran Tuypens
6th Substitution
66'
Event
Rein Van Helden → Yuto Tsunashima
5th Substitution
66'
63'
Event
Dennis Eckert Ayensa → Timothé Nkada
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Tobias Mohr → Adnane Abid
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Rafiki Saïd
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Zeno Van Den Bosch
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
59'
55'
Event
Josué Homawoo → Marlon Fossey
2nd Substitution
48'
Event
Rafiki Saïd
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Farouck Adekami → Youssef Hamdaoui
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
David Bates
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
38'
Event
Timothé Nkada
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
33'
Event
Yuto Tsunashima
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Boubakar Kouyate receives a second yellow card.
85
Update Update
Mauricio Benitez comes on for Dennis Praet.
83
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Eckert takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
82
Update Update
Nayel Mehssatou comes on for Casper Nielsen.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Bernard Nguene comes on for Rafiki Said.
78
Attempt Attempt
Marwan Al-Sahafi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Marwan Al-Sahafi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Rafiki Said takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
David Bates takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Eckert takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Praet takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Gustav Mortensen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Marwan Al-Sahafi is on, and Gyrano Kerk is off.
66
Substitution Substitution
Rein Van Helden is substituted for Yuto Tsunashima.
66
Update Update
Boubakar Kouyate replaces Eran Tuypens.
65
Attempt Attempt
Casper Nielsen's right-footed shot is blocked.
63
Update Update
Tobias Mohr comes on for Adnane Abid.
63
Update Update
Dennis Eckert replaces Timothe Nkada.
59
Attempt Attempt
Gyrano Kerk takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
55
Update Update
Josue Homawoo comes on for Marlon Fossey.
51
Attempt Attempt
Farouck Adekami takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Rafiki Said scores with a left-footed shot.
46
Update Update
Farouck Adekami is on, and Youssef Hamdaoui is off.
45
Update Update
Gyrano Kerk's header attempt goes wide.
45
Attempt Attempt
David Bates takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gyrano Kerk takes a header shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Rafiki Said takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Update Update
Goal! David Bates scores, making it 0-3.
42
Attempt Attempt
David Bates takes a left-footed shot and scores.
38
Update Update
Goal! Timothe Nkada scores, making it 0-2.
38
Attempt Attempt
Timothe Nkada scores with a right-footed shot.
33
Update Update
Own goal! Yuto Tsunashima scores, making it 0-1.
32
Attempt Attempt
Rafiki Said takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Valencia takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Scott takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
22
Attempt Attempt
Timothe Nkada takes a left-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Daam Foulon takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Zeno Van Den Bosch's header is saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Scott takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jasper Vergoote.

CONCLUSION

Standard Liège's 5-0 thrashing of Antwerp stands as a masterclass in efficiency and opportunism, transforming possession disparity into a goal avalanche. Leading 3-0 at halftime, they navigated the red card fallout with composure, netting twice more. Antwerp's 64% possession proved futile without penetration, amplifying their structural shortcomings. This minimal-deviation win reinforces Standard Liège's stronger-team billing and market consensus. For Antwerp, the red card exposed disciplinary and adaptive frailties, demanding tactical introspection. Standard Liège's clinical edge propels their campaign, while Antwerp faces recovery challenges.

Antwerp vs Standard Liège preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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