Antwerp vs OH Leuven Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Bosuilstadion Sat, 18 Apr - 2:00 PM
Pro League
Antwerp ANT
2 Winner 0
OH Leuven OHL
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 3 Conference League Play-off Group
Youssef Hamdaoui - 89'
Xander Dierckx - 51'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Óscar Gil 28'
Red Card Birger Verstraete 73'

CONTEXT

Antwerp claimed a 2-0 home win against OH Leuven in a match that remained goalless at halftime with both teams level. Antwerp controlled 56% of possession throughout, reflecting their status as the stronger side. The second half saw OH Leuven reduced to nine men after two red cards, enabling Antwerp to capitalize with both goals post-interval. This outcome showed minimal structural deviation of 5.4% in Antwerp's favor, aligning closely with pre-match market expectations where Antwerp was heavily favored. Efficiency metrics remained in line with anticipated performance levels. The red card events introduced significant distortion, particularly influencing second-half dynamics and preventing any potential upset. No xG data was available for deeper chance quality analysis, but the possession edge and disciplinary issues underscored Antwerp's dominance. The result reinforces Antwerp's structural superiority without major surprises.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation measured minimal at 5.4% favoring Antwerp.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as true.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Event impact: Two red cards for OH Leuven altered second-half flow.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion evident from OH Leuven's two dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Put

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

W. Cochet

2nd Assistant

A. De Beuckelaer

4th Official

B. Bijnens

1st Assistant

Antwerp J. Oosting
J. Oosting
VS
OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
1.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.23
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Charleroi Rank: L
Genk Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: L
Standard Liège Rank: D
La Louvière Rank: D
Sint-Truiden Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genk Rank: D
Standard Liège Rank: L
Antwerp Rank: W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: L
Anderlecht Rank: L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 5 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Antwerp
94.6%
Draw
5.08%
Away OH Leuven
0.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.03
19.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Antwerp
OH Leuven
Power Score
20.03
19.53
League Position
10
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Antwerp — Opponent-weighted form score
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Antwerp OH Leuven

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Antwerp

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Antwerp ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy OH Leuven
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.88
14.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.89
46.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Antwerp +3.03 Efficiency Index
vs
OH Leuven -3.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Antwerp
OH Leuven
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Antwerp ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy OH Leuven
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Antwerp OH Leuven
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Antwerp OH Leuven
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Antwerp
OH Leuven
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Antwerp
vs
OH Leuven
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Antwerp OH Leuven
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Antwerp 0.35
OH Leuven 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Antwerp OH Leuven
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Antwerp 0.00
OH Leuven 0.03
Antwerp
OH Leuven
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ANT had peak pressure around 81'.
  • ANT started the game with stronger pressure.
ANT Pressure OHL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ANT reached the top pressure at 81' (87.74).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Antwerp ANT Home
12 matches
OH Leuven OHL Away
Match Record
5
Wins
2
5
Draws
5
2
Losses
5
Goals
19
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
19
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0.24
xG
1.89
1.89
xGA
0.24

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:05:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
T. Nozawa
Japan
41 T. Nozawa
Z. Van Den Bosch
Belgium
33 Z. Van Den Bosch
Y. Tsunashima
Japan
4 Y. Tsunashima
D. Foulon
Belgium
5 D. Foulon
A. Valencia
Ecuador
14 A. Valencia
Xander Dierckx
Substitution
Belgium
78 Xander Dierckx
D. Praet
Belgium
8 D. Praet
F. Adekami
Substitution
22 F. Adekami
C. Scott
Germany
30 C. Scott
V. Janssen
Netherlands
18 V. Janssen
G. Kerk
Netherlands
7 G. Kerk
Pitch
T. Leysen
Belgium
1 T. Leysen
T. Ominami
Japan
5 T. Ominami
R. Nyakossi
Switzerland
34 R. Nyakossi
E. Pletinckx
Belgium
28 E. Pletinckx
H. Teklab
Substitution
Germany
14 H. Teklab
W. George
Substitution
Belgium
6 W. George
B. Verstraete
Belgium
4 B. Verstraete
Ó. Gil Regaño
Spain
27 Ó. Gil Regaño
Y. Maziz
Substitution
France
10 Y. Maziz
S. Kaba
Substitution
Guinea
39 S. Kaba
T. Verlinden
Substitution
Belgium
7 T. Verlinden

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 3 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
Bosuilstadion
Capacity :
16649
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bert Put
Wouter Cochet
Arne De Beuckelaer
Bryan Bijnens

Statistics

Possession
ANT
56%
OHL
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 2
65 Dangerous attacks 31
56 Possession 44
11 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 2

Match Overview

11 Successful Dribbles 6
78 Ball Safe 92
3 Injuries 2
27 Throwins 14
26 Dribble Attempts 14
3 Goal Kicks 10
11 Goal Attempts 3
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
2 Assists 0
2 Substitutions 5

Attacking

105 Attacks 60
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
302 Successful Passes 222
84 Successful Passes Percentage 75
46 Long Passes 63
30 Successful Long Passes 29
361 Passes 295
18 Key Passes 5

Defensive

5 Interceptions 15
53 Duels Won 65
2 Saves 4
22 Tackles 29

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 8
10 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

16 Fouls 13
7 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Bert Put

Starting XI ▼

41
Taishi Brandon Nozawa
Taishi Brandon Nozawa Goalkeeper
7
4
Yuto Tsunashima
Yuto Tsunashima Defender
6.87
5
Daam Foulon
Daam Foulon Defender
6.77
33
Zeno Van Den Bosch
Zeno Van Den Bosch Defender
6.83
8
Dennis Praet
Dennis Praet Midfielder
6.89
14
Anthony Valencia
Anthony Valencia Midfielder
6.88
22
Farouck Adekami
Farouck Adekami Midfielder
6.86
56
Eran Tuypens
Eran Tuypens
Defender86'
6.42
78
Xander Dierckx
Xander Dierckx Midfielder
6.22
43
Youssef Hamdaoui
Youssef Hamdaoui
Midfielder79'
6.67
7
Gyrano Kerk
Gyrano Kerk Attacker
6.77
18
Vincent Janssen
Vincent Janssen Attacker
7.05
30
Christopher Scott
Christopher Scott Attacker
6.87
Referee : Bert Put

Starting XI ▼

1
Tobe Leysen
Tobe Leysen Goalkeeper
7.02
5
Takuma Ominami
Takuma Ominami Defender
6.64
28
Ewoud Pletinckx
Ewoud Pletinckx Defender
6.82
34
Roggerio Nyakossi
Roggerio Nyakossi Defender
6.84
4
Birger Verstraete
Birger Verstraete Midfielder
6.66
6
Wouter George
Wouter George Midfielder
6.66
24
Lukasz Lakomy
Lukasz Lakomy
Midfielder79'
6.84
14
Henok Teklab
Henok Teklab Midfielder
6.72
8
Siebe Schrijvers
Siebe Schrijvers
Midfielder76'
7.01
27
Óscar Gil
Óscar Gil Midfielder
6.64
7
Thibaud Verlinden
Thibaud Verlinden Attacker
6.74
77
Thibault Vlietinck
Thibault Vlietinck
Defender66'
6.48
10
Youssef Maziz
Youssef Maziz Attacker
6.95
33
Mathieu Maertens
Mathieu Maertens
Midfielder79'
6.7
39
Sory Kaba
Sory Kaba Attacker
6.9
19
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Attacker66'
6.7

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Vincent Janssen
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Youssef Hamdaoui
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
89'
Event
Eran Tuypens → Farouck Adekami
7th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Youssef Hamdaoui → Xander Dierckx
4th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Lukasz Lakomy → Wouter George
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Mathieu Maertens → Youssef Maziz
6th Substitution
Event
Xander Dierckx
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
76'
Event
Siebe Schrijvers → Henok Teklab
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Birger Verstraete
Card adjusted
73'
Event
Birger Verstraete
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
66'
Event
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi → Sory Kaba
1st Substitution
66'
Event
Thibault Vlietinck → Thibaud Verlinden
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Birger Verstraete
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Christopher Scott
Penalty disallowed
59'
Event
Xander Dierckx
Header / 1st Goal
51'
1ST-HALF
Event
Vincent Janssen
Goal disallowed
40'
28'
Event
Óscar Gil
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
24'
Event
Óscar Gil
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Antwerp's 2-0 victory over OH Leuven exemplified controlled dominance, breaking a goalless halftime deadlock after OH Leuven's two red cards shifted momentum decisively. With 56% possession and no concessions, Antwerp exploited the numerical advantage efficiently, aligning with their pre-designated stronger status. Minimal 5.4% structural deviation and true market alignment indicate a predictable outcome undistorted by chance beyond disciplinary events. Absent xG data limits shot quality insights, yet second-half red card distortion clearly amplified Antwerp's edge, preventing any competitive parity. This performance solidifies Antwerp's reliability in favorable setups.

Antwerp vs OH Leuven preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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