Anderlecht vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Lotto Park Sun, 26 Apr - 4:30 PM
Pro League Anderlecht ADL 
1 
3
3
Union Saint-Gilloise USG Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 5 · Championship Round
Mihajlo Cvetkovic - 32'
|
Guilherme Smith - 65'
Adem Zorgane - 25', 17'
Killian Sardella 45+7' 
|
STANDINGS
Loading standings...
Sorry, standings could not be loaded right now.
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 14
CONTEXT
Anderlecht welcomed Union Saint-Gilloise to the Lotto Park for a high-stakes Belgian Pro League clash, which concluded with a 1-3 victory for the visitors. The first half saw Anderlecht take a possession edge at 55% to 45%, yet they trailed 1-2 at the break after Union Saint-Gilloise struck twice. Momentum swung dramatically in the second half when Anderlecht received a red card, leaving them short-handed and vulnerable. Despite controlling the ball more, the home side struggled to create meaningful chances post-dismissal, while Union Saint-Gilloise exploited the numerical advantage with clinical precision to add a third goal. Deemed the stronger team beforehand, Union Saint-Gilloise's win highlighted their superior efficiency and adaptability under pressure. This result underscores a significant structural deviation in their favor, aligning with pre-match assessments amid red card distortion.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Union Saint-Gilloise recorded a significant 45.3% structural deviation in their victory.
- Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with overall expectations.
- xG alignment: xG alignment remains undetermined due to unavailable data.
- Market alignment: Final outcome aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
- xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from missing metrics.
- Event impact: Red card event decisively altered match flow in second half.
- Red card distortion: Anderlecht's red card produced clear second-half distortion favoring Union Saint-Gilloise.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
J. Vergoote
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
M. Geerolf
1st Assistant
M. Tiesters
2nd Assistant
W. Smet
4th Official
J. Taravel
VS
D. Hubert
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.17
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sint-Truiden Rank: L
Mechelen Rank: W
Gent Rank: W
Club Brugge Rank: L
Cercle Brugge Rank: L
Mechelen Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gent Rank: D
Club Brugge Rank: W
Mechelen Rank: W
Sint-Truiden Rank: W
Sint-Truiden Rank: W
Dender Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 11
11
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Anderlecht18.94%
Draw
26.32%
Union Saint-Gilloise54.74%
Movement
Changes since opening Anderlecht+18.72%
Draw
+24.4%
Union Saint-Gilloise-43.12%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22 41.77 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Anderlecht Union Saint-GilloisePower Score
22
41.77
League Position
6
1
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Anderlecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Union Saint-Gilloise — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Anderlecht Union Saint-Gilloise
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Anderlecht
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Union Saint-Gilloise
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Anderlecht ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Union Saint-Gilloise
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.55
32.89
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.89
28.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Anderlecht -0.41 Efficiency Index
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise +0.41 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Anderlecht
Union Saint-Gilloise
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Anderlecht ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Union Saint-Gilloise
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Anderlecht Union Saint-Gilloise Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Anderlecht Union Saint-Gilloise Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Anderlecht
Union Saint-Gilloise
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Anderlechtvs
Union Saint-Gilloise
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Anderlecht Union Saint-Gilloise Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Anderlecht 0.24
Union Saint-Gilloise 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Anderlecht Union Saint-Gilloise Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Anderlecht 0.05
Union Saint-Gilloise 0.02
Anderlecht
Union Saint-Gilloise
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- USG had peak pressure around 75'.
- USG started the game with stronger pressure.
ADL Pressure USG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: USG reached the top pressure at 75' (87.10).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Anderlecht ADL Home
16 matches
Union Saint-Gilloise USG Away
Match Record 2
Wins
11
3
Draws
3
11
Losses
2
Goals 9
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
9
-17
Goal Difference
+17
Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:20:00+00:00
STARTING XI
Anderlecht Union Saint-Gilloise Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
26 C. Coosemans
L. Hey
#346'
7 I. Camara
54 K. Sardella
M. Angely
#481'
93 M. Diarra
79 A. Maamar
55 M. Kana
J. Kana
#6181'
13 N. Saliba
A. Bertaccini
#9161'
9 M. Cvetković
I. Kanate
#9970'
10 Y. Verschaeren
83 T. Degreef
11 T. Hazard
37 K. Scherpen
26 R. Sykes
16 C. Burgess
5 K. Mac Allister
I. Pavlic
#1481'
11 G. da Silva Carvalho
6 K. Van de Perre
2
R. Schoofs
#1776'
8 A. Zorgane
L. Patris
#2776'
25 A. Khalaili
10 A. El Hadj
O. Niang
#2266'
30 R. Florucz
M. Fuseini
#781'
13 K. Rodríguez Cortéz
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 04:30 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 5 · Championship Round
🏟️ Stadium :
Lotto Park
👥 Capacity :
21500
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Jasper Vergoote
Michael Geerolf
Martijn Tiesters
Wim Smet
Next Match
Anderlecht
vs
Club Brugge
League: Pro League
Kickoff: Sun, 3 May - 4:30 PM
Venue: Lotto Park
Union Saint-Gilloise
vs
Sint-Truiden
League: Pro League
Kickoff: Sat, 2 May - 6:45 PM
Venue: Stayen Stadion
Statistics
Possession
ADL
52%
USG
48%
Top Statistics
1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 4
54 Dangerous attacks 56
55 Possession 45
4 Corners 3
8 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0
Match Overview
28 Throwins 23
12 Goal Kicks 7
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
8 Successful Dribbles 7
1 Assists 2
21 Dribble Attempts 15
76 Ball Safe 69
7 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
Attacking
83 Attacks 97
Possession
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
463 Passes 374
382 Successful Passes 307
83 Successful Passes Percentage 82
6 Key Passes 9
43 Long Passes 52
16 Successful Long Passes 28
Defensive
1 Saves 2
43 Duels Won 50
12 Interceptions 10
19 Tackles 22
Build-up
2 Accurate Crosses 4
15 Total Crosses 13
Discipline
16 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 0
Lineup
Anderlecht Referee : Jasper Vergoote
Manager ▼
J. Taravel Coach
Starting XI ▼
26 Colin Coosemans Goalkeeper
6.867 Ilay Camara Defender
6.663Lucas Hey
6.83Defender46'
54 Killian Sardella Defender
6.76
79 Ali Maamar Defender
6.6193 Moussa Diarra Defender
6.64Mathys Angély
6.52Defender81'
9 Mihajlo Cvetkovic Midfielder
91Adriano Bertaccini
8.3Attacker61'
10 Yari Verschaeren Midfielder
6.7899Ibrahim Kanaté
Midfielder70'
6.56
13 Nathan-Dylan Saliba Midfielder
6.961Joshua Nga Kana
6.42Midfielder81'
55 Marco Kana Midfielder
6.7483 Tristan Degreef Midfielder
6.6211 Thorgan Hazard Attacker
7.36Substitutes ▼
3Lucas Hey
6.83Defender46'
91Adriano Bertaccini
8.3Attacker61'
99Ibrahim Kanaté
Midfielder70'
6.56
4Mathys Angély
6.52Defender81'
61Joshua Nga Kana
6.42Midfielder81'
Bench ▼
32
Justin Heekeren Goalkeeper
7.316
Ludwig Augustinsson Defender
6.9323
Mats Rits Midfielder
6.5778
Anas Tajaouart Midfielder
6.2477
Coba da Costa Attacker
6.53 Union Saint-Gilloise Referee : Jasper Vergoote
Manager ▼
D. Hubert Coach
Starting XI ▼
37 Kjell Scherpen Goalkeeper
6.995 Kevin Mac Allister Defender
7.16
16 Christian Burgess Defender
7.2626 Ross Sykes Defender
7.29
6 Kamiel Van De Perre Midfielder
6.918 Adem Zorgane Midfielder
2
7.0317Rob Schoofs
7.11Midfielder76'
11 Guilherme Smith Midfielder
14Ivan Pavlić
6.38Midfielder81'
25 Anan Khalaili Midfielder
7.1427Louis Patris
7.12Defender76'
10 Anouar Ait El Hadj Attacker
6.9713 Kevin Rodríguez Attacker
7.01
7Mohammed Fuseini
6.44Attacker81'
30 Raul Florucz Attacker
6.8722Ousseynou Niang
6.83Midfielder66'
Substitutes ▼
22Ousseynou Niang
6.83Midfielder66'
27Louis Patris
7.12Defender76'
17Rob Schoofs
7.11Midfielder76'
7Mohammed Fuseini
6.44Attacker81'
14Ivan Pavlić
6.38Midfielder81'
Bench ▼
1
Vic Chambaere Goalkeeper
6.6629 Massiré Sylla Defender
48
Fedde Leysen Defender
6.9320
Marc Giger Attacker
6.82Events
2ND-HALF
Ibrahim Kanaté
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Mathys Angély → Moussa Diarra
7th Substitution
81'
Joshua Nga Kana → Nathan-Dylan Saliba
9th Substitution
81'
81'
Mohammed Fuseini → Kevin Rodríguez
8th Substitution
81'
Ivan Pavlić → Guilherme Smith
10th Substitution
76'
Louis Patris → Anan Khalaili
5th Substitution
76'
Rob Schoofs → Adem Zorgane
6th Substitution
Ibrahim Kanaté → Yari Verschaeren
4th Substitution
70'
68'
Kevin Mac Allister
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
66'
Ousseynou Niang → Raul Florucz
3rd Substitution
65'
Guilherme Smith
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Adriano Bertaccini → Mihajlo Cvetkovic
2nd Substitution
61'
Lucas Hey → Ilay Camara
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Killian Sardella
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
45+7'
Killian Sardella
Card adjusted
45+7'
45+6'
Kevin Rodríguez
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
42'
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Header / 3rd Goal
32'
25'
Adem Zorgane
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
19'
Ross Sykes
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'
Adem Zorgane
Header / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Union Saint-Gilloise's 1-3 triumph over Anderlecht validates their status as the stronger side, overcoming a halftime deficit through ruthless exploitation of a rival red card. Anderlecht's 55% possession failed to yield results after the dismissal, exposing defensive frailties and inefficiency. The visitors' second-half surge, adding one more goal, reflected perfect adaptation to the numerical edge. This outcome, marked by significant structural deviation and market alignment, reinforces Union Saint-Gilloise's title credentials while highlighting Anderlecht's need for disciplinary improvements. Key distortions from the red card reshaped the contest, turning potential parity into a clear away win.
Anderlecht vs Union Saint-Gilloise preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
How We Build This Analysis
BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.