Almería vs Mirandés Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Mon, 4 May - 6:30 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
4 Winner 2
Mirandés MIR
Full Time Mon, 4 May 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Jon Morcillo - 90+1' (P)
Fernando Medrano - 58' (Own Goal)
Juan Gutiérrez - 15' (Own Goal)
Léo Baptistão - 1'
Goal
|
Goal
Salim El Jebari - 18'
Fernando Medrano - 3'

CONTEXT

Almería defeated Mirandés 4-2 in a competitive La Liga 2 encounter that was evenly poised at 2-2 halftime. The home side dominated possession with 59% compared to Mirandés' 41%, reflecting their status as the stronger team. Almería surged ahead in the second half, adding two goals while Mirandés failed to respond, securing the victory. No red cards disrupted play, allowing continuous action throughout. The outcome demonstrated minimal structural deviation of 4%, aligning with pre-match expectations for Almería. Efficiency metrics stayed in line, underscoring a straightforward execution of game plan without major adjustments. Mirandés showed first-half resilience, matching Almería's scoring, but faded post-interval under sustained pressure. This result reinforces Almería's control and consistency.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Almería's 4-2 win exhibited minimal structural deviation of 4% from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Final result fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No key events like red cards altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion in scoreline development.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Etayo Herrera

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Domínguez Cervantes

4th Official

Spain

B. Valencia López

1st Assistant

Spain

D. Novoa Hernández

2nd Assistant

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.42
Yellow cards / match 4.76
Red cards / match 0.26
Penalties / match 0.33
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Mirandés A. Muneta Beldarrain
A. Muneta Beldarrain
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Granada Rank: 64 W
Málaga Rank: 68 W
Racing Santander Rank: 68 L
Leganés Rank: 64 W
Castellón Rank: 68 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 57 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 67 L
Castellón Rank: 67 D
Real Zaragoza Rank: 58 W
Albacete Rank: 66 D
Córdoba Rank: 65 D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 6 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
95.95%
Draw
3.73%
Away Mirandés
0.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.95
58.91
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Mirandés
Power Score
70.95
58.91
League Position
2
20
Global Rank
183
522

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Mirandés — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Mirandés

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mirandés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mirandés
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.68
33.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.17
20.68
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Almería -1.25 Efficiency Index
vs
Mirandés +1.25 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Mirandés
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mirandés
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Almería Mirandés
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Almería Mirandés
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Mirandés
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Almería
vs
Mirandés
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Almería Mirandés
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Almería 0.14
Mirandés 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Almería Mirandés
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Almería 0.06
Mirandés 0.06
Almería
Mirandés
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MIR had peak pressure around 79'.
  • ALM started the game with stronger pressure.
ALM Pressure MIR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MIR reached the top pressure at 79' (66.89).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
15 matches
Mirandés MIR Away
Match Record
7
Wins
2
6
Draws
6
2
Losses
7
Goals
23
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
23
+9
Goal Difference
-9

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:03:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
M. Ruiz
Spain
16 M. Ruiz
R. Ely
Brazil
5 R. Ely
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
A. Muñoz Miguel
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
S. Dzodic
Serbia
29 S. Dzodic
D. Lopy
Senegal
17 D. Lopy
L. Carrilho Baptistão
Substitution
Brazil
12 L. Carrilho Baptistão
S. Arribas Calvo
Substitution
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
A. Embarba Blázquez
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Substitution
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
Pitch
J. Palomares Pulpillo
Spain
13 J. Palomares Pulpillo
F. Medrano Gastañaga
Spain
3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
J. Cabello Trujillo
Spain
15 J. Cabello Trujillo
J. Gutiérrez Martínez
Spain
22 J. Gutiérrez Martínez
H. Novoa Ramos
Substitution
Spain
2 H. Novoa Ramos
R. Bauzà Sureda
Spain
18 R. Bauzà Sureda
T. Helguera Merello Volante
Uruguay
6 T. Helguera Merello Volante
A. Houary Jeddoub
Substitution
Morocco
29 A. Houary Jeddoub
S. El Jebari El Hannouni
Substitution
Morocco
30 S. El Jebari El Hannouni
U. del Cura Urra
Spain
48 U. del Cura Urra
F. Hernandez Coarasa
Substitution
Spain
28 F. Hernandez Coarasa

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity :
17400
Attendance :
15007
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Gorka Etayo Herrera
Abraham Domínguez Cervantes
Brian Valencia López
Daniel Novoa Hernández

Statistics

Possession
ALM
58%
MIR
42%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 3
64 Dangerous attacks 32
59 Possession 41
5 Corners 6
13 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

65 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
26 Throwins 19
1 Assists 2
7 Goal Attempts 9
15 Successful Dribbles 9
23 Dribble Attempts 16
80 Ball Safe 76
3 Goal Kicks 5
4 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 1
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

104 Attacks 75
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
85 Successful Passes Percentage 72
464 Passes 321
6 Key Passes 10
393 Successful Passes 232
48 Long Passes 41
26 Successful Long Passes 12

Defensive

3 Saves 2
54 Duels Won 52
15 Tackles 18
10 Interceptions 12

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

11 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Gorka Etayo Herrera

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
6.99
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
6.86
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Defender
6.75
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Defender
6.49
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
6.85
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
7.62
6
André Horta
André Horta
Midfielder87'
6.65
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão Midfielder
6.85
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal
Midfielder63'
6.78
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Midfielder
6.87
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Midfielder
7.17
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo
Attacker74'
7.09
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Midfielder
6.83
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
6.56
9
Thalys
Thalys
Attacker87'
6.71
Referee : Gorka Etayo Herrera

Starting XI ▼

13
Juanpa Palomares
Juanpa Palomares Goalkeeper
6.75
2
Hugo Novoa
Hugo Novoa Defender
6.56
27
Toni Tamarit
Toni Tamarit
Attacker76'
6.69
3
Fernando Medrano
Fernando Medrano Defender
6.79
15
Jorge Cabello
Jorge Cabello Defender
6.76
22
Juan Gutiérrez
Juan Gutiérrez Defender
6.73
6
Thiago Helguera
Thiago Helguera Midfielder
6.62
18
Rafel Bauzà
Rafel Bauzà Midfielder
6.85
29
Ali Houary
Ali Houary Midfielder
6.81
42
Julen Martínez Landa
Julen Martínez Landa
Attacker82'
6.54
28
Javi Hernández
Javi Hernández Attacker
7.27
11
Mickaël Ramon Vincent Malsa
Mickaël Ramon Vincent Malsa
Midfielder90+2'
30
Salim El Jebari
Salim El Jebari Attacker
6.68
17
Pablo Pérez
Pablo Pérez
Defender76'
6.64
48
Unax del Cura
Unax del Cura Attacker
6.95

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Mickaël Ramon Vincent Malsa → Javi Hernández
8th Substitution
Event
Jon Morcillo
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+1'
89'
Event
Juanpa Palomares
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
André Horta → Sergio Arribas
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Thalys → Miguel de la Fuente
7th Substitution
87'
82'
Event
Julen Martínez Landa → Ali Houary
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Pablo Pérez → Salim El Jebari
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Toni Tamarit → Hugo Novoa
4th Substitution
Event
Jon Morcillo → Adrián Embarba
2nd Substitution
74'
65'
Event
Salim El Jebari
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Arnau Puigmal → Léo Baptistão
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Léo Baptistão
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
62'
Event
Fernando Medrano
Left foot shot / 2nd Own Goal
58'
52'
Event
Juan Gutiérrez
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
18'
Event
Salim El Jebari
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Juan Gutiérrez
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
15'
3'
Event
Fernando Medrano
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Léo Baptistão
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
1'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Mickael Malsa comes on for Javier Hernandez.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jon Morcillo takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Julen Martinez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
87
Update Update
André Filipe Horta replaces Sergio Arribas Calvo.
87
Update Update
Thalys Gomes De Araujo is on, and Miguel De la Fuente is off.
85
Attempt Attempt
Dion Lopy takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
78
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bonini takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Pablo Perez Rico is on, and Salim El Jebari is off.
76
Update Update
Toni Tamarit comes on for Hugo Novoa Ramos.
74
Update Update
Jon Morcillo replaces Adrian Embarba.
72
Attempt Attempt
Ali Houary takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Ali Houary's left-footed shot is saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Rafel Bauza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Unax del Cura takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Juan Gutierrez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
63
Update Update
Arnau Puigmal comes on for Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao.
54
Attempt Attempt
Juan Gutierrez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Novoa Ramos takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Džodić takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Update Update
Miguel De la Fuente's header is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Unax del Cura takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Salim El Jebari takes a left-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Salim El Jebari scores with a left-footed shot.
15
Update Update
Own goal by Juan Gutierrez gives the lead at 2-1.
14
Attempt Attempt
Miguel De la Fuente takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Embarba takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Fernando Medrano takes a left-footed shot and scores.
1
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Gorka Etayo Herrera.

CONCLUSION

Almería's 4-2 triumph over Mirandés validated their favoritism, converting 59% possession into decisive second-half goals after a 2-2 halftime draw. Minimal deviation and market alignment indicate a result true to form for the stronger side. Absent red cards preserved natural flow, highlighting Almería's sustained pressure overwhelming Mirandés' early parity. Efficiency in line with norms suggests effective execution without surprises. Though xG absence limits precision, structural consistency points to reliable performance. This win bolsters Almería's standing, exposing Mirandés' limitations in maintaining resistance.

Almería vs Mirandés preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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