Almería vs Málaga Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain

Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Sun, 19 Apr - 7:00 PM

La Liga 2

Almería ALM

Málaga MLA

Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 7:00 PM

Round 36 Regular Season

Léo Baptistão - 90+1'

Adrián Embarba - 63', 50'

Haitam Abaida - 84'

Adrián Niño - 67'

Daijiro Chirino 90+9'

Ramón Enríquez 90+9'

CONTEXT

In a pulsating Segunda División clash, Almería stunned pre-match stronger side Málaga with a 3-2 home victory marked by second-half pandemonium. The opening 45 minutes ended level at 0-0, as Málaga's 54% possession failed to yield breakthroughs against Almería's stubborn defense. Tempers flared post-interval, with red cards to both teams unleashing chaos and five goals in quick succession. Almería, holding just 46% possession, displayed ruthless efficiency to edge ahead and hold firm. This outcome showed minimal structural deviation of 4.4%, staying fully aligned with market expectations. Efficiency shifts remained in line, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The mutual dismissals proved the defining distortion, transforming a deadlock into high drama.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Almería's victory registered minimal structural deviation at 4.4 percent.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams stayed in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without available metrics.
Event impact: Red cards triggered a five-goal second-half explosion after 0-0 halftime.
Red card distortion: Red card distortion dominated second-half adjustments for both sides.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

J. González Esteban

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Pérez de Colosía Alonso

1st Assistant

L. Marín Robles

2nd Assistant

M. Ibáñez Juárez

4th Official

J. Ferrer Sicilia

J. Funes Arjona

1.77

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.88

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

10 - 8 - 7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Almería

95.61%

Draw

4.2%

Málaga

0.19%

Team Power Ranking

26.67

33.31

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Almería

Málaga

Power Score

26.67

33.31

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Almería — Opponent-weighted form score

Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Málaga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Almería

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Almería ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Málaga

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

46.30

27.78

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

27.78

46.30

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Almería +1.88 Efficiency Index

Málaga -1.88 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Almería

Málaga

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Almería ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Málaga

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Almería Málaga

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Almería Málaga

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Almería

Málaga

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Almería

Málaga

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Almería Málaga

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Almería Málaga

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Almería

Málaga

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

MLA had peak pressure around 10'.
MLA started the game with stronger pressure.

ALM Pressure MLA Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: MLA reached the top pressure at 10' (98.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home

25 matches

Málaga MLA Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-5

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:06:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 A. Fernández Moreno

22 D. Chirino

5 R. Ely

18 F. Bonini

3 A. Muñoz Miguel

29 S. Dzodic

6 A. Luz Horta

2 A. Puigmal Martínez

11 S. Arribas Calvo

23 A. Embarba Blázquez

24 M. De la Fuente Escudero

1 A. Herrero Peinador

31 R. Garrido Hierro

20 F. Montero Rubio

16 D. Murillo Dominguez

3 C. Puga Medina

37 R. Rodríguez Ruiz

23 I. Merino Rodríguez

11 J. Muñoz Benavides

12 C. Dotor Gonzalez

25 J. Dorrio Ortega

9 C. Ruiz Rubio

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 19, 2026, 07:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos

Capacity :

17400

Attendance :

16205

Pitch Surface :

N/A

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Jon Ander González Esteban

David Pérez de Colosía Alonso

Luis Miguel Marín Robles

Marcelo Ibáñez Juárez

Statistics

Possession

ALM

48%

MLA

52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2

2 Big Chances Created 2

8 Shots 3

46 Dangerous attacks 40

46 Possession 54

3 Corners 5

9 Free kicks 18

2 Yellow Cards 3

1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 7

70 Ball Safe 75

14 Goal Attempts 9

3 Assists 2

4 Substitutions 5

53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47

16 Throwins 17

17 Dribble Attempts 15

7 Goal Kicks 12

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2

92 Attacks 97

Possession

53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46

28 Successful Long Passes 27

53 Long Passes 59

400 Passes 470

333 Successful Passes 387

83 Successful Passes Percentage 82

13 Key Passes 11

Defensive

2 Saves 3

36 Duels Won 43

11 Tackles 11

10 Interceptions 7

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2

19 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

2 Offsides 4

18 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Manager ▼

J. Ferrer Sicilia Coach

Starting XI ▼

Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper

7.01

Álex Muñoz Defender

6.85

Rodrigo Ely Defender

6.57

Federico Bonini Defender

6.89

Daijiro Chirino Defender

6.68

Arnau Puigmal Midfielder

6.78

Léo Baptistão

Attacker72'

6.86

André Horta Midfielder

6.69

Gui Guedes

Midfielder72'

6.66

Sergio Arribas Midfielder

7.57

Adrián Embarba Midfielder

7.13

Jon Morcillo

Attacker87'

7.09

Stefan Dzodic Midfielder

6.84

Miguel de la Fuente Attacker

6.56

Thalys

Attacker78'

6.72

Substitutes ▼

Gui Guedes

Midfielder72'

6.66

Léo Baptistão

Attacker72'

6.86

Thalys

Attacker78'

6.72

Jon Morcillo

Attacker87'

7.09

Bench ▼

Fernando Martínez Goalkeeper

Bruno Iribarne Goalkeeper

Nélson Monte Defender

6.75

Marcos Luna Defender

6.48

Álex Centelles Defender

6.65

Chumi Defender

6.54

Patrick Soko Attacker

6.7

Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban