Almería vs Málaga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Sun, 19 Apr - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
3 Winner 2
Málaga MLA
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Léo Baptistão - 90+1'
Adrián Embarba - 63', 50'
Goal
|
Goal
Haitam Abaida - 84'
Adrián Niño - 67'
Daijiro Chirino 90+9' Red Card
|
Red Card Ramón Enríquez 90+9'

CONTEXT

In a pulsating Segunda División clash, Almería stunned pre-match stronger side Málaga with a 3-2 home victory marked by second-half pandemonium. The opening 45 minutes ended level at 0-0, as Málaga's 54% possession failed to yield breakthroughs against Almería's stubborn defense. Tempers flared post-interval, with red cards to both teams unleashing chaos and five goals in quick succession. Almería, holding just 46% possession, displayed ruthless efficiency to edge ahead and hold firm. This outcome showed minimal structural deviation of 4.4%, staying fully aligned with market expectations. Efficiency shifts remained in line, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The mutual dismissals proved the defining distortion, transforming a deadlock into high drama.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Almería's victory registered minimal structural deviation at 4.4 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without available metrics.
  • Event impact: Red cards triggered a five-goal second-half explosion after 0-0 halftime.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion dominated second-half adjustments for both sides.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. González Esteban

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Pérez de Colosía Alonso

1st Assistant

L. Marín Robles

2nd Assistant

M. Ibáñez Juárez

4th Official

Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
1.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Racing Santander Rank: L
Leganés Rank: W
Castellón Rank: L
Real Sociedad II Rank: W
Huesca Rank: W
Real Zaragoza Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Las Palmas Rank: W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: D
FC Andorra Rank: D
Leganés Rank: D
Cádiz Rank: W
Huesca Rank: W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 8 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
95.61%
Draw
4.2%
Away Málaga
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.67
33.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Málaga
Power Score
26.67
33.31
League Position
2
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Málaga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.30
27.78
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.78
46.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Almería +1.85 Efficiency Index
vs
Málaga -1.85 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Málaga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Almería Málaga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Almería Málaga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Málaga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Almería
vs
Málaga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Almería Málaga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Almería 0.41
Málaga 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Almería Málaga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Almería 0.05
Málaga 0.07
Almería
Málaga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MLA had peak pressure around 10'.
  • MLA started the game with stronger pressure.
ALM Pressure MLA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MLA reached the top pressure at 10' (98.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
25 matches
Málaga MLA Away
Match Record
10
Wins
7
8
Draws
8
7
Losses
10
Goals
31
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
31
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:06:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
D. Chirino
Curaçao
22 D. Chirino
R. Ely
Brazil
5 R. Ely
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
A. Muñoz Miguel
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
S. Dzodic
Serbia
29 S. Dzodic
A. Luz Horta
Substitution
Portugal
6 A. Luz Horta
A. Puigmal Martínez
Substitution
Spain
2 A. Puigmal Martínez
S. Arribas Calvo
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
A. Embarba Blázquez
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Substitution
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
Spain
1 A. Herrero Peinador
R. Garrido Hierro
Spain
31 R. Garrido Hierro
F. Montero Rubio
Substitution
Spain
20 F. Montero Rubio
D. Murillo Dominguez
Spain
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
C. Puga Medina
Spain
3 C. Puga Medina
R. Rodríguez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
37 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
I. Merino Rodríguez
Spain
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
J. Muñoz Benavides
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
C. Dotor Gonzalez
Substitution
Spain
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez
J. Dorrio Ortega
Substitution
Spain
25 J. Dorrio Ortega
C. Ruiz Rubio
Spain
9 C. Ruiz Rubio

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 19, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity :
17400
Attendance :
16205
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jon Ander González Esteban
David Pérez de Colosía Alonso
Luis Miguel Marín Robles
Marcelo Ibáñez Juárez

Statistics

Possession
ALM
48%
MLA
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 3
46 Dangerous attacks 40
46 Possession 54
3 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 7
70 Ball Safe 75
14 Goal Attempts 9
3 Assists 2
4 Substitutions 5
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
16 Throwins 17
17 Dribble Attempts 15
7 Goal Kicks 12

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
92 Attacks 97

Possession

53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
28 Successful Long Passes 27
53 Long Passes 59
400 Passes 470
333 Successful Passes 387
83 Successful Passes Percentage 82
13 Key Passes 11

Defensive

2 Saves 3
36 Duels Won 43
11 Tackles 11
10 Interceptions 7

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2
19 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

2 Offsides 4
18 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
7.01
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
6.85
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Defender
6.57
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
6.89
22
Daijiro Chirino
Daijiro Chirino Defender
6.68
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal Midfielder
6.78
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão
Attacker72'
6.86
6
André Horta
André Horta Midfielder
6.69
8
Gui Guedes
Gui Guedes
Midfielder72'
6.66
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
7.57
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Midfielder
2
7.13
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo
Attacker87'
7.09
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Midfielder
6.84
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
6.56
9
Thalys
Thalys
Attacker78'
6.72
Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
6.99
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Defender
6.89
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Defender
6.99
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Defender
6.75
4
Einar Galilea
Einar Galilea
Defender82'
6.87
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Defender
6.81
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
6.85
7
Haitam Abaida
Haitam Abaida
Attacker82'
6.5
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Midfielder
6.85
6
Ramón Enríquez
Ramón Enríquez
Midfielder90+2'
6.67
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Midfielder
6.69
25
Josué Dorrio
Josué Dorrio Midfielder
6.65
35
Aarón Ochoa
Aarón Ochoa
Midfielder64'
6.77
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez Midfielder
6.74
21
Adrián Niño
Adrián Niño
Attacker64'
6.82
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
7.04

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Daijiro Chirino
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
90+9'
90+9'
Event
Ramón Enríquez
Violent conduct / 2nd Redcard
Event
Thalys
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+2'
Event
6th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Ramón Enríquez → Carlos Dotor
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Carlos Puga
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Léo Baptistão
Header / 5th Goal
90+1'
Event
Jon Morcillo → Adrián Embarba
8th Substitution
87'
84'
Event
Haitam Abaida
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
82'
Event
Haitam Abaida → Joaquín Muñoz
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Einar Galilea → Javi Montero
7th Substitution
Event
Thalys → Miguel de la Fuente
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Gui Guedes → André Horta
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Léo Baptistão → Arnau Puigmal
3rd Substitution
72'
67'
Event
Adrián Niño
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
64'
Event
Adrián Niño → Rafa Rodríguez
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Aarón Ochoa → Josué Dorrio
2nd Substitution
Event
Adrián Embarba
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
63'
Event
Adrián Embarba
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
50'
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Javi Montero
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
24'
Event
Rafa Rodríguez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
André Horta
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
8'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Almería exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Almería vs Málaga preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.