Almería vs Leganés Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain

Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Sun, 5 Apr - 4:30 PM

La Liga 2

Almería ALM

Leganés LEG

Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 4:30 PM

Round 34 Regular Season

Nico Melamed - 90+1'

Sergio Arribas - 31'

Gonzalo Melero - 13'

CONTEXT

The match between Almería and Leganés has finished, with Almería securing a 2-1 victory at full-time. The two sides went into the break evenly matched at 1-1, but the home side pulled ahead in the second half to claim the win. Heading into the fixture, Almería were the clear favorites with a 60.4% pre

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Almería showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

A. Morilla Turrión

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Gutiérrez Martino

1st Assistant

M. Camacho Garrote

4th Official

M. Herrera Ruiz

2nd Assistant

J. Ferrer Sicilia

I. Oca Pulido

1.84

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.16

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

3 - 2 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Almería

60.41%

Draw

22.57%

Leganés

17.02%

Team Power Ranking

70.08

59.6

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Almería

Leganés

Power Score

70.08

59.6

League Position

Global Rank

186

301

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Almería — Opponent-weighted form score

Leganés — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Leganés

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Almería

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Leganés

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Almería ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Leganés

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

30.88

27.66

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

27.66

30.88

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Almería +0.33 Efficiency Index

Leganés -0.33 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Almería

Leganés

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Almería ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Leganés

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Almería Leganés

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Almería Leganés

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Almería

Leganés

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Almería

Leganés

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Almería Leganés

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Almería Leganés

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Almería

Leganés

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home

8 matches

Leganés LEG Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:05:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-4-3

1 A. Fernández Moreno

16 M. Ruiz

5 R. Ely

18 F. Bonini

3 A. Muñoz Miguel

14 I. Mohammed

17 D. Lopy

2 A. Puigmal Martínez

11 S. Arribas Calvo

23 A. Embarba Blázquez

24 M. De la Fuente Escudero

1 J. Soriano Oropesa

2 M. Antolín Garzón

5 I. Miquel i Pons

24 A. Diawara

17 N. García García

8 S. Cisse

16 G. Melero Manzanares

22 S. Figueredo Vilar del Valle

9 D. Rodríguez Vázquez

19 D. García Campos

12 L. Nlavo Asue

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 05, 2026, 04:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos

Capacity :

17400

Attendance :

13726

Pitch Surface :

N/A

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Alejandro Morilla Turrión

Alaiz Gutiérrez Martino

Manuel Camacho Garrote

Manuel Herrera Ruiz

Statistics

Possession

ALM

65%

LEG

35%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1

2 Big Chances Created 1

5 Shots 6

60 Dangerous attacks 17

68 Possession 32

5 Corners 1

11 Free kicks 13

3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 14

30 Throwins 18

45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 23

9 Successful Dribbles 3

20 Dribble Attempts 13

5 Substitutions 5

2 Assists 1

75 Ball Safe 64

0 Injuries 2

15 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

135 Attacks 78

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 69

466 Successful Passes 172

540 Passes 250

56 Long Passes 62

12 Key Passes 3

37 Successful Long Passes 23

66 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

3 Interceptions 10

21 Tackles 19

2 Saves 5

64 Duels Won 45

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 10

5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 2

13 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro Morilla Turrión

Manager ▼

J. Ferrer Sicilia Coach

Starting XI ▼

Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper

Álex Muñoz Defender

Rodrigo Ely Defender

Marcos Luna Defender

Federico Bonini Defender

Arnau Puigmal Midfielder

Jon Morcillo

Attacker63'

Sergio Arribas Midfielder

Nico Melamed

Midfielder78'

Iddrisu Baba Midfielder

Stefan Dzodic

Midfielder67'

Dion Lopy Midfielder

Adrián Embarba Midfielder

Léo Baptistão

Attacker63'

Miguel de la Fuente Attacker

Thalys

Attacker78'

Substitutes ▼

Léo Baptistão

Attacker63'

Jon Morcillo

Attacker63'

Stefan Dzodic

Midfielder67'

Thalys

Attacker78'

Nico Melamed

Midfielder78'

Bench ▼

Fernando Martínez Goalkeeper

Nélson Monte Defender

Álex Centelles Defender

Chumi Defender

Daijiro Chirino Defender

André Horta Midfielder

Patrick Soko Attacker

Referee : Alejandro Morilla Turrión