Albacete vs Burgos Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain

Estadio Carlos Belmonte Sat, 4 Apr - 2:15 PM

La Liga 2

Albacete ALB

Burgos BUR

Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:15 PM

Round 34 Regular Season

Alex Rubio - 63'

Oier Luengo - 31' (Own Goal)

Álex Lizancos - 71'

Fer Niño - 45+2'

Kévin Appin - 13'

CONTEXT

The match between Albacete and Burgos has finished, concluding with a 1-1 draw at full-time. Interestingly, despite match data indicating a 1-2 halftime deficit for the home side, the final score settled at an even 1-1. This result did not align with the pre-match market, which favored Albacete with a 38.4% win probability, compared to a 31.5% chance for a draw and just 30.1% for a Burgos victory. Albacete controlled the ball for the majority of the contest, finishing with 54% possession to Burgos's 46%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both teams, it cannot be determined whether the drawn outcome aligned with the quality of scoring chances created. Despite this missing data, the match's overall efficiency shift was evaluated to be completely in line with baseline expectations. The flow of the game was uninterrupted by major disciplinary issues, as neither team received a red card. Burgos ultimately asserted themselves as the stronger team relative to their pre-match projections. By forcing a draw on the road, the away side engineered a significant deviation level of 68.5%,

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Burgos showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

L. Bestard Servera

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. García Andreu

2nd Assistant

V. Jiménez Rivero

1st Assistant

S. Escriche Guzmán

4th Official

A. González Fernández

L. Ramis Monfort

1.38

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.62

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

3 - 2 - 2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Albacete

38.38%

Draw

31.53%

Burgos

30.09%

Team Power Ranking

65.74

67.97

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Albacete

Burgos

Power Score

65.74

67.97

League Position

Global Rank

295

238

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Albacete — Opponent-weighted form score

Burgos — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Albacete Burgos

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Albacete

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Burgos

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Albacete ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Burgos

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

17.41

18.70

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

18.70

17.41

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Albacete -0.13 Efficiency Index

Burgos +0.13 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Albacete

Burgos

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Albacete ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Burgos

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Albacete Burgos

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Albacete Burgos

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Albacete

Burgos

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Albacete

Burgos

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Albacete Burgos

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Albacete Burgos

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Albacete

Burgos

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Albacete ALB Home

7 matches

Burgos BUR Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:04:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2

Match Formation 4-4-2

13 R. Lizoáin Cruz

15 F. Gámez López

5 J. Moreno Arrones Gil

24 J. Vallejo Lázaro

21 C. Neva Tey

3 J. Gomez

14 V. San Bartolomé Prieto

8 M. Fernández Figueira

6 A. Pacheco Ruiz

19 A. Rubio Roldan

10 J. Betancor Sánchez

13 A. Cantero Armendáriz

12 F. Miguel

8 G. Sierra Pérez

3 O. Luengo Redondo

2 A. Lizancos Saldaña

10 K. Appin

5 M. Atienza Villa

4 P. Galdames Millán

14 D. Gonzalez Ballesteros

16 F. Sánchez Rodríguez

9 F. Niño Rodriguez

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 04, 2026, 02:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Capacity :

17524

Attendance :

9562

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Christian García Andreu

Lluís Bestard Servera

Víctor Jiménez Rivero

Sergio Escriche Guzmán

Statistics

Possession

ALB

51%

BUR

49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3

1 Big Chances Created 2

1 Shots 4

48 Dangerous attacks 32

54 Possession 46

5 Corners 2

17 Free kicks 11

4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 10

35 Throwins 20

7 Goal Kicks 13

3 Successful Dribbles 5

0 Hit Woodwork 1

1 Assists 3

5 Substitutions 5

74 Ball Safe 93

21 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

0 Injuries 1

5 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

104 Attacks 101

Possession

5 Key Passes 6

364 Successful Passes 336

71 Long Passes 65

80 Successful Passes Percentage 82

33 Successful Long Passes 32

455 Passes 410

46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49

Defensive

16 Tackles 15

1 Saves 0

4 Interceptions 13

50 Duels Won 48

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 9

4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 2

11 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Lluís Bestard Servera

Manager ▼

A. González Fernández Coach

Starting XI ▼

Raúl Lizoain Goalkeeper

Jonathan Gómez Defender

Javi Moreno Defender

Fran Gámez Defender

Lorenzo Aguado

Defender79'

Carlos Neva Defender

Jesús Vallejo Defender

Ale Meléndez

Midfielder61'

Antonio Pacheco Midfielder

Martín Fernández Midfielder

Antonio Puertas

Attacker62'

Victor San Bartolome Prieto Midfielder

Samuel Obeng Gyabaa

Attacker79'

Jefté Betancor Attacker

José Carlos Lazo

Attacker62'

Alex Rubio Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Ale Meléndez

Midfielder61'

José Carlos Lazo

Attacker62'

Antonio Puertas

Attacker62'

Samuel Obeng Gyabaa

Attacker79'

Lorenzo Aguado

Defender79'

Bench ▼

Mario Ramos Fernández Goalkeeper

Lluís López Defender

Pepe Sánchez Defender

Daniel Bernabéu Garcia Defender

Capi Midfielder

Referee : Lluís Bestard Servera