Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye

Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu Mon, 27 Apr - 2:00 PM

Super Lig

Alanyaspor ANY

Samsunspor Samsunspor

Full Time Mon, 27 Apr 2:00 PM

Round 31 Regular Season

Meschack Elia - 90+7'

Güven Yalçın - 90+6'

Marius Mouandilmadji - 90+1'

Olivier Ntcham - 39'

Elayis Tavsan - 37'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Alanyaspor 2–3 Samsunspor. The result saw Samsunspor take the points. Samsunspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 48%–52%.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Samsunspor achieved a significant 70.9% structural deviation in their favor.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
xG alignment: xG data unavailable, so alignment cannot be determined.
Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to lack of data.
Event impact: No red cards or second-half adjustments influenced the result.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match dynamics.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

O. Ergün

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

O. Gülter

2nd Assistant

O. Gökçen

4th Official

M. Bulut

1st Assistant

N. Pereira Costa

T. Fink

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.24

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

2 - 3 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Alanyaspor

42.4%

Draw

28.48%

Samsunspor

29.12%

Movement

Changes since opening

Alanyaspor

+42.12%

Draw

+26.11%

Samsunspor

-68.23%

Team Power Ranking

20.69

30.45

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Alanyaspor

Samsunspor

Power Score

20.69

30.45

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Alanyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score

Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alanyaspor Samsunspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Alanyaspor

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Samsunspor

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Alanyaspor ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Samsunspor

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

39.58

27.02

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

27.02

39.58

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Alanyaspor +1.27 Efficiency Index

Samsunspor -1.27 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Alanyaspor

Samsunspor

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Alanyaspor ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Samsunspor

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Alanyaspor Samsunspor

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Alanyaspor Samsunspor

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Alanyaspor

Samsunspor

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Alanyaspor

Samsunspor

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Alanyaspor Samsunspor

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Alanyaspor Samsunspor

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Alanyaspor

Samsunspor

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

ANY had peak pressure around 49'.
Samsunspor started the game with stronger pressure.

ANY Pressure Samsunspor Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: ANY reached the top pressure at 49' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alanyaspor ANY Home

5 matches

Samsunspor Samsunspor Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-3

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:01:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

48 P. de Mileo Vidotti

20 F. Aksoy

3 N. Reis Lima

50 ?. Akdağ

94 F. Hadërgjonaj

58 A. Simão Muanza

17 N. Janvier

11 R. Pereira Duarte

27 İ. Kaya

9 S. Mounié

16 U. Hwang

71 İ. Eğribayat

15 A. Badra Diabaté

55 Y. Cift

24 T. Borevković

28 S. Gönül

10 J. Ntcham

20 Y. Kayan

2 J. Wooding Mendes

21 C. Holse

7 E. Tavsan

9 M. Mouandilmadji

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 27, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 31 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu

Capacity :

10128

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Onur Gülter

Ozan Ergün

Oğuzhan Gökçen

Mert Bulut

Statistics

Possession

ANY

48%

Samsunspor

52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3

2 Big Chances Created 4

6 Shots 2

40 Dangerous attacks 41

48 Possession 52

12 Corners 5

18 Free kicks 11

2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

20 Throwins 12

25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63

17 Successful Headers 10

12 Dribble Attempts 8

2 Goal Kicks 11

3 Successful Dribbles 5

1 Assists 3

60 Ball Safe 81

1 Injuries 2

12 Goal Attempts 6

6 Substitutions 5

Attacking

81 Attacks 86

0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

20 Successful Long Passes 27

330 Successful Passes 351

390 Passes 425

85 Successful Passes Percentage 83

47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

43 Long Passes 57

13 Key Passes 9

Defensive

11 Tackles 23

3 Interceptions 6

49 Duels Won 49

3 Saves 3

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 13

8 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

1 Offsides 4

11 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Ozan Ergün

Manager ▼

N. Pereira Costa Coach

Starting XI ▼

Paulo Victor Goalkeeper

6.71

Nuno Lima Defender

6.84

Fatih Aksoy Defender

6.61

İzzet Çelik

Midfielder69'

6.52

Ümit Akdağ Defender

6.92

Baran Moğultay

Defender46'

6.52

Ruan Midfielder

6.94

Nicolas Janvier Midfielder

6.87

Maestro Midfielder

6.85

Gaius Makouta

Midfielder87'

6.74

Florent Hadergjonaj Midfielder

7.08

Steve Mounié Attacker

6.67

Güven Yalçın

Attacker68'

6.74

Ui-jo Hwang Attacker

6.86

Enes Keskin

Midfielder87'

6.7

İbrahim Kaya Attacker

6.82

Meschack Elia

Attacker46'

6.58

Substitutes ▼

Meschack Elia

Attacker46'

6.58

Baran Moğultay

Defender46'

6.52

Güven Yalçın

Attacker68'

6.74

İzzet Çelik

Midfielder69'

6.52

Enes Keskin

Midfielder87'

6.7

Gaius Makouta

Midfielder87'

6.74

Bench ▼

Ertuğrul Taşkıran Goalkeeper

6.97

Bruno Viana Defender

6.66

Efecan Karaca Midfielder

6.65

Buluthan Bulut Midfielder

Referee : Ozan Ergün