Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu Sat, 9 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Alanyaspor ANY
3 Winner 1
Kayserispor KAY
Full Time Sat, 9 May 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
İbrahim Kaya - 61'
Florent Hadergjonaj - 40' (P)
Meschack Elia - 7'
Goal
|
Goal
László Bénes - 13'

CONTEXT

Alanyaspor claimed a convincing 3-1 home win against Kayserispor, maintaining their edge as the stronger side. The match saw Alanyaspor lead 2-1 at halftime, showcasing early dominance despite Kayserispor holding 54% possession overall compared to Alanyaspor's 46%. The home side extended their advantage in the second half without any reported adjustments or disruptions. No red cards were issued, keeping the game flowing evenly. This result reflected minimal structural deviation of 2.6%, aligning closely with pre-match expectations where Alanyaspor was heavily favored. Efficiency stayed in line throughout, underscoring Alanyaspor's clinical finishing and defensive solidity. Kayserispor managed a response before the break but couldn't overturn the deficit, highlighting Alanyaspor's control in key moments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Alanyaspor's 3-1 victory exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.6%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No significant events or second-half adjustments impacted the result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards resulted in no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Y. Kol

Türkiye 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

?. Avcı

4th Official

Türkiye

B. Birinci

1st Assistant

Türkiye

K. Ersoy

2nd Assistant

Türkiye

League averages

Super Lig Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.4
Yellow cards / match 4.22
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.32
Alanyaspor N. Pereira Costa
N. Pereira Costa
VS
Kayserispor E. Moe
E. Moe
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.86
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 D
Samsunspor Rank: 71 L
Kasımpaşa Rank: 65 L
Trabzonspor Rank: 79 D
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 66 D
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eyüpspor Rank: 64 D
Rizespor Rank: 69 W
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 65 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 L
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 L
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 63 W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Alanyaspor
97.38%
Draw
2.38%
Away Kayserispor
0.24%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.45
63.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Alanyaspor
Kayserispor
Power Score
68.45
63.39
League Position
12
17
Global Rank
247
386

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Alanyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Kayserispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alanyaspor Kayserispor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Alanyaspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kayserispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Alanyaspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kayserispor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Alanyaspor Kayserispor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Alanyaspor Kayserispor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Alanyaspor
Kayserispor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Alanyaspor
vs
Kayserispor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Alanyaspor Kayserispor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Alanyaspor 0.00
Kayserispor 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Alanyaspor Kayserispor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Alanyaspor 0.00
Kayserispor 0.00
Alanyaspor
Kayserispor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ANY had peak pressure around 60'.
  • KAY started the game with stronger pressure.
ANY Pressure KAY Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ANY reached the top pressure at 60' (91.08).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alanyaspor ANY Home
19 matches
Kayserispor KAY Away
Match Record
11
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
11
Goals
38
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
38
+20
Goal Difference
-20

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T16:30:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
P. de Mileo Vidotti
Brazil
48 P. de Mileo Vidotti
F. Aksoy
Türkiye
20 F. Aksoy
F. Aliti
Kosovo
5 F. Aliti
B. Willemen Da Silva
Brazil
30 B. Willemen Da Silva
F. Hadërgjonaj
Kosovo
94 F. Hadërgjonaj
G. Makouta
France
42 G. Makouta
N. Janvier
Substitution
France
17 N. Janvier
E. Keskin
Substitution
Türkiye
8 E. Keskin
M. Elia
Substitution
DR Congo
12 M. Elia
U. Hwang
Substitution
South Korea
16 U. Hwang
İ. Kaya
Substitution
Türkiye
27 İ. Kaya
Pitch
B. Bayazit
Netherlands
25 B. Bayazit
L. Carole
France
23 L. Carole
R. Civelek
Substitution
Türkiye
28 R. Civelek
S. Güler
Germany
6 S. Güler
J. Katongo
England
2 J. Katongo
F. Soyalp
Substitution
Türkiye
33 F. Soyalp
Y. Aït Bennasser
Morocco
15 Y. Aït Bennasser
D. Toköz
Substitution
Türkiye
24 D. Toköz
L. Bénes
Slovakia
8 L. Bénes
I. Tuci
Substitution
Albania
22 I. Tuci
M. Nunes Cardoso
Portugal
7 M. Nunes Cardoso

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu
Capacity :
10128
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
İlker Yasin Avcı
Yasin Kol
Bahtiyar Birinci
Kerem Ersoy

Statistics

Possession
ANY
45%
KAY
55%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 5
13 Shots 19
38 Dangerous attacks 59
46 Possession 54
1 Corners 7
14 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Successful Headers 16
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
18 Throwins 19
5 Substitutions 5
12 Dribble Attempts 8
1 Assists 1
9 Goal Attempts 10
68 Ball Safe 66
4 Successful Dribbles 3
10 Goal Kicks 8
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

71 Attacks 100
0 Big Chances Missed 5

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 86
50 Long Passes 57
375 Passes 432
28 Successful Long Passes 34
9 Key Passes 15
310 Successful Passes 371
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 60

Defensive

29 Duels Won 42
7 Saves 5
9 Tackles 12
3 Interceptions 6

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 26
2 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
13 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Yasin Kol

Starting XI ▼

48
Paulo Victor
Paulo Victor Goalkeeper
6.69
5
Fidan Aliti
Fidan Aliti Defender
6.92
20
Fatih Aksoy
Fatih Aksoy Defender
6.62
30
Bruno Viana
Bruno Viana Defender
6.69
8
Enes Keskin
Enes Keskin Midfielder
6.69
18
Baran Moğultay
Baran Moğultay
Defender88'
6.76
17
Nicolas Janvier
Nicolas Janvier Midfielder
6.89
6
İzzet Çelik
İzzet Çelik
Midfielder78'
6.5
42
Gaius Makouta
Gaius Makouta Midfielder
6.73
94
Florent Hadergjonaj
Florent Hadergjonaj Midfielder
7.08
12
Meschack Elia
Meschack Elia Attacker
6.62
7
Efecan Karaca
Efecan Karaca
Midfielder87'
6.65
16
Ui-jo Hwang
Ui-jo Hwang Attacker
6.84
10
Güven Yalçın
Güven Yalçın
Attacker78'
6.74
27
İbrahim Kaya
İbrahim Kaya Attacker
6.8
14
Ianis Hagi
Ianis Hagi
Midfielder71'
7.06
Referee : Yasin Kol

Starting XI ▼

25
Bilal Bayazıt
Bilal Bayazıt Goalkeeper
6.9
2
J. Katongo
J. Katongo Defender
6.46
6
Semih Güler
Semih Güler Defender
6.7
23
Lionel Carole
Lionel Carole Defender
6.63
28
Ramazan Civelek
Ramazan Civelek Defender
6.55
10
João Mendes
João Mendes
Midfielder55'
6.89
8
László Bénes
László Bénes Midfielder
7
15
Youssef Aït Bennasser
Youssef Aït Bennasser Midfielder
6.77
24
Dorukhan Toköz
Dorukhan Toköz Midfielder
6.53
61
Görkem Sağlam
Görkem Sağlam
Midfielder63'
6.59
33
Furkan Soyalp
Furkan Soyalp Midfielder
6.76
63
Fedor Chalov
Fedor Chalov
Attacker54'
6.75
7
Miguel Cardoso
Miguel Cardoso Attacker
6.98
22
Indrit Tuci
Indrit Tuci Attacker
6.71
18
Denis Makarov
Denis Makarov
Midfielder80'
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Baran Moğultay → Enes Keskin
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Efecan Karaca → Meschack Elia
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Gaius Makouta
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
85'
80'
Event
Denis Makarov → Indrit Tuci
7th Substitution
Event
İzzet Çelik → Nicolas Janvier
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Güven Yalçın → Ui-jo Hwang
6th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Semih Güler
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Ianis Hagi → İbrahim Kaya
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Nicolas Janvier
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
63'
63'
Event
Görkem Sağlam → Dorukhan Toköz
3rd Substitution
Event
İbrahim Kaya
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
61'
55'
Event
João Mendes → Ramazan Civelek
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Fedor Chalov → Furkan Soyalp
1st Substitution
51'
Event
Ramazan Civelek
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Florent Hadergjonaj
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
40'
13'
Event
László Bénes
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Meschack Elia
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
7'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Denis Makarov takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Fidan Aliti's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Update Update
Joao Sabino Mendes Neto Saraiva attempts a header but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Gorkem Saglam's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Gorkem Saglam's right-footed shot is blocked.
88
Update Update
Baran Mogultay comes on for Enes Keskin.
87
Update Update
Efecan Karaca comes on for Elia Meschack.
86
Attempt Attempt
Denis Makarov takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Laszlo Benes takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Guven Yalcin takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Denis Makarov takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
80
Attempt Attempt
Indrit Tuci takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
80
Update Update
Denis Makarov comes on for Indrit Tuci.
79
Attempt Attempt
Ianis Hagi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
78
Update Update
Guven Yalcin replaces Hwang Ui Jo.
76
Attempt Attempt
Fedor Chalov takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Janvier's right-footed shot is saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Joao Sabino Mendes Neto Saraiva takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
71
Update Update
Ianis Hagi is on, and Ibrahim Kaya is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Indrit Tuci's header is saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Laszlo Benes takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
67
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Kaya takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Joao Sabino Mendes Neto Saraiva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Update Update
Gorkem Saglam comes on for Dorukhan Tokoz.
61
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Kaya takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
56
Attempt Attempt
Enes Keskin takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
55
Update Update
Joao Sabino Mendes Neto Saraiva comes on for Ramazan Civelek.
54
Update Update
Fedor Chalov replaces Furkan Soyalp.
50
Attempt Attempt
Enes Keskin takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Florent Hadergjonaj has a right-footed shot that is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Kaya takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Furkan Soyalp takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Youssef Ait Bennasse takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Florent Hadergjonaj scores with a right-footed shot.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Florent Hadergjonaj scores, making it 2-1.
37
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Kaya takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Laszlo Benes scores with a left-footed shot.
13
Attempt Attempt
Laszlo Benes scores with a left-footed shot.
8
Attempt Attempt
Elia Meschack scores with a right-footed shot.
7
Attempt Attempt
Furkan Soyalp takes a shot with his head but misses.

CONCLUSION

Alanyaspor's 3-1 triumph over Kayserispor validated their status as the stronger team, with a halftime lead of 2-1 setting the tone. Despite Kayserispor's slight possession edge, Alanyaspor's efficiency and structure proved decisive, showing minimal deviation from expectations. The clean sheet on discipline and lack of major events allowed the home side's quality to shine through. This performance reinforces Alanyaspor's consistency, while Kayserispor's efforts fell short in converting possession into goals.

Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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