Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika Kaliningrad Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Akhmat Arena Thu, 23 Apr - 4:45 PM
Premier League
Akhmat Grozny AKH
1 – 1
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad
Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 4:45 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
K. Andrade - 60' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Derik Lacerda - 51'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Akhmat Grozny 1–1 Baltika Kaliningrad. The match ended in a draw. Baltika Kaliningrad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 57%–43%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed significant 100% structural deviation attributed to Baltika Kaliningrad.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No major events or second-half adjustments impacted the result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced zero distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Kukulyak

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Akhmat Grozny S. Cherchesov
S. Cherchesov
VS
Baltika Kaliningrad A. Talalaev
A. Talalaev
1.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.69
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: D
Krasnodar Rank: L
Rostov Rank: W
Akron Rank: D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krasnodar Rank: D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: D
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: D
Sochi Rank: W
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Rostov Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Akhmat Grozny
0%
Draw
0%
Away Baltika Kaliningrad
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.57
27.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Akhmat Grozny
Baltika Kaliningrad
Power Score
18.57
27.64
League Position
9
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Akhmat Grozny — Opponent-weighted form score
Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Akhmat Grozny Baltika Kaliningrad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Akhmat Grozny

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Baltika Kaliningrad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Akhmat Grozny ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Baltika Kaliningrad
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.67
40.93
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.93
16.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Akhmat Grozny -2.80 Efficiency Index
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad +2.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Akhmat Grozny
Baltika Kaliningrad
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Akhmat Grozny ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Baltika Kaliningrad
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Akhmat Grozny Baltika Kaliningrad
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Akhmat Grozny Baltika Kaliningrad
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Akhmat Grozny
Baltika Kaliningrad
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Akhmat Grozny
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Akhmat Grozny Baltika Kaliningrad
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Akhmat Grozny 0.14
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Akhmat Grozny Baltika Kaliningrad
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Akhmat Grozny 0.02
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.02
Akhmat Grozny
Baltika Kaliningrad
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Baltika Kaliningrad had peak pressure around 58'.
  • AKH started the game with stronger pressure.
AKH Pressure Baltika Kaliningrad Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Baltika Kaliningrad reached the top pressure at 58' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Akhmat Grozny AKH Home
3 matches
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
1
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:01:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
V. Uljanov
Russia
1 V. Uljanov
D. Khlusevich
Substitution
Russia
82 D. Khlusevich
O. Ndong
Senegal
90 O. Ndong
K. Cake
Albania
5 K. Cake
M. Bogosavac
Serbia
8 M. Bogosavac
I. Silva Lima
Substitution
Brazil
11 I. Silva Lima
T. Ibishev
Russia
4 T. Ibishev
M. Samorodov
Kazakhstan
20 M. Samorodov
E. dos Santos Cacintura
Angola
17 E. dos Santos Cacintura
L. Sadulaev
Russia
7 L. Sadulaev
G. Melkadze
Substitution
Russia
77 G. Melkadze
Pitch
I. Kukushkin
Russia
81 I. Kukushkin
A. Filin
Russia
25 A. Filin
K. Andrade Murillo
Colombia
16 K. Andrade Murillo
S. Varatynov
Russia
2 S. Varatynov
N. Gassama
France
4 N. Gassama
I. Petrov
Substitution
Russia
10 I. Petrov
A. Mendel
Substitution
Russia
8 A. Mendel
M. Beveev
Russia
23 M. Beveev
M. Petrov
Substitution
Russia
73 M. Petrov
D. Severino Lacerda
Substitution
Brazil
18 D. Severino Lacerda
N. Titkov
Substitution
Russia
22 N. Titkov

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 23, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Akhmat Arena
Capacity :
30597
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Evgeny Kukulyak

Statistics

Possession
AKH
53%
Baltika Kaliningrad
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 4
50 Dangerous attacks 52
57 Possession 43
5 Corners 4
20 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

79 Ball Safe 71
3 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 2
3 Goal Attempts 10
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
8 Successful Dribbles 3
19 Dribble Attempts 12
23 Throwins 19
18 Successful Headers 29
7 Goal Kicks 4
0 Assists 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

86 Attacks 92
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

68 Long Passes 75
73 Successful Passes Percentage 62
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
299 Successful Passes 197
408 Passes 316
26 Successful Long Passes 31

Defensive

61 Duels Won 64
14 Tackles 20
8 Interceptions 16
4 Saves 1

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 13
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

12 Fouls 22
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Evgeny Kukulyak

Starting XI ▼

1
Vadim Ulyanov
Vadim Ulyanov Goalkeeper
6.84
5
Klisman Cake
Klisman Cake Defender
6.76
8
Miroslav Bogosavac
Miroslav Bogosavac Defender
6.7
82
Daniil Khlusevich
Daniil Khlusevich Defender
5.98
19
S. Pryakhin
S. Pryakhin
Midfielder57'
6.7
90
Ousmane N’Dong
Ousmane N’Dong Defender
6.88
4
Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Turpal-Ali Ibishev Midfielder
6.62
7
Lechi Sadulaev
Lechi Sadulaev Midfielder
6.83
11
Ismael Silva
Ismael Silva Midfielder
6.93
10
Rifat Zhemaletdinov
Rifat Zhemaletdinov
Midfielder85'
6.54
17
Egas Cacintura
Egas Cacintura Midfielder
6.91
20
Maksim Samorodov
Maksim Samorodov Midfielder
6.99
77
Georgiy Melkadze
Georgiy Melkadze Attacker
6.88
13
Mohamed Konaté
Mohamed Konaté
Attacker85'
6.68
Referee : Evgeny Kukulyak

Starting XI ▼

81
I. Kukushkin
I. Kukushkin Goalkeeper
6.51
2
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov Defender
6.85
16
K. Andrade
K. Andrade Defender
7.1
25
Aleksandr Filin
Aleksandr Filin Defender
7.01
4
Nathan Gassama
Nathan Gassama Midfielder
7.07
8
Andrey Mendel
Andrey Mendel Midfielder
6.77
68
Mikhail Ryadno
Mikhail Ryadno
Defender71'
6.65
10
Ilya Petrov
Ilya Petrov Midfielder
6.88
26
Ivan Belikov
Ivan Belikov
Defender46'
6.91
23
Mingiyan Beveev
Mingiyan Beveev Midfielder
6.86
18
Derik Lacerda
Derik Lacerda Attacker
6.81
15
T. Yenne
T. Yenne
Attacker81'
6.55
22
Nikolai Titkov
Nikolai Titkov Attacker
6.87
5
Aymane Mourid
Aymane Mourid
Midfielder87'
6.61
73
Maksim Petrov
Maksim Petrov Attacker
7.12
69
I. Manelov
I. Manelov
Attacker81'
6.61

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Miroslav Bogosavac
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+2'
87'
Event
Aymane Mourid → Nikolai Titkov
8th Substitution
Event
Mohamed Konaté → Georgiy Melkadze
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Rifat Zhemaletdinov → Ismael Silva
7th Substitution
85'
81'
Event
T. Yenne → Derik Lacerda
5th Substitution
81'
Event
I. Manelov → Maksim Petrov
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Mikhail Ryadno → Andrey Mendel
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Ivan Belikov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Ousmane N’Dong
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
Event
K. Andrade
Header / 1st Own Goal
60'
Event
S. Pryakhin → Daniil Khlusevich
2nd Substitution
57'
51'
Event
Derik Lacerda
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
46'
Event
Ivan Belikov → Ilya Petrov
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Nathan Gassama
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Ilya Petrov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

This 1-1 stalemate underscores Baltika Kaliningrad's grit despite being the stronger side on paper, clawing back from a second-half deficit at Akhmat Grozny's home. Akhmat's 57% possession failed to yield a win, highlighting conversion issues post-goalless halftime. The significant deviation for Baltika reflects their underperformance relative to strength but efficiency in line with norms. With no reds or disruptions, the draw feels fair yet frustrating for the hosts who controlled play. Both squads gain a point, but Baltika maximizes road resilience while Akhmat ponders wastefulness. Expect tactical tweaks ahead, as this result shifts momentum subtly in a competitive league.

Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika Kaliningrad preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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