Ajax vs PSV Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Johan Cruijff Arena Sat, 2 May - 6:00 PM
Eredivisie
Ajax AJA
2 – 2
PSV PSV
Full Time Sat, 2 May 6:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Mika Godts - 90+2'
Anton Gaaei - 11'
Goal
|
Goal
Myron Boadu - 77'
Ricardo Pepi - 1'

CONTEXT

Ajax and PSV played out a 2-2 draw in a tightly contested Eredivisie match at the Johan Cruyff Arena. The halftime score stood at 1-1, with both teams finding the net once in an even opening period. Possession was nearly split down the middle, Ajax registering 49% to PSV's 51%, indicative of a balanced battle. PSV entered as the stronger team on paper, yet the result marked a significant structural deviation of 77% tied to their performance. No red cards were issued, maintaining full squad integrity throughout. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations, reflecting steady execution without major shifts. The outcome diverged from market alignments, highlighting Ajax's resilience in securing a point against the favored visitors. This draw underscores the competitive depth in Dutch football's top flight.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed a significant 77% structural deviation associated with PSV.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was not achieved.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for analysis.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Lindhout

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Balder

1st Assistant

F. Vandeursen

2nd Assistant

J. van der Laan

4th Official

Ajax Ó. García Junyent
Ó. García Junyent
VS
PSV P. Bosz
P. Bosz
1.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.45
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
NAC Breda Rank: 55 W
Heracles Almelo Rank: 57 W
FC Twente Rank: 76 L
Feyenoord Rank: 76 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 65 W
FC Groningen Rank: 66 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
PEC Zwolle Rank: 63 W
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 67 W
FC Utrecht Rank: 71 W
Telstar Rank: 62 L
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 74 L
AZ Rank: 76 W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 11 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ajax
40.16%
Draw
22.98%
Away PSV
36.86%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ajax
+39.69%
Draw
+13.44%
PSV
-53.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.51
85.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ajax
PSV
Power Score
76.51
85.86
League Position
4
1
Global Rank
92
30

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ajax — Opponent-weighted form score
PSV — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ajax PSV

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ajax

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

PSV

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ajax ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy PSV
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.94
18.63
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.63
31.94
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ajax +1.40 Efficiency Index
vs
PSV -1.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ajax
PSV
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ajax ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy PSV
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ajax PSV
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ajax PSV
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ajax
PSV
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ajax
vs
PSV
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ajax PSV
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ajax 0.25
PSV 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ajax PSV
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ajax 0.04
PSV 0.04
Ajax
PSV
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PSV had peak pressure around 80'.
  • PSV started the game with stronger pressure.
AJA Pressure PSV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PSV reached the top pressure at 80' (83.91).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ajax AJA Home
41 matches
PSV PSV Away
Match Record
16
Wins
14
11
Draws
11
14
Losses
16
Goals
66
Goals Scored
61
61
Goals Conceded
66
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Paes
Netherlands
26 M. Paes
A. Gaaei
Denmark
3 A. Gaaei
J. Šutalo
Croatia
37 J. Šutalo
Y. Baas
Netherlands
15 Y. Baas
L. Rosa
Brazil
2 L. Rosa
Y. Regeer
Substitution
Netherlands
6 Y. Regeer
K. Itakura
Substitution
Japan
4 K. Itakura
J. Mokio
Belgium
24 J. Mokio
S. Berghuis
Substitution
Netherlands
23 S. Berghuis
K. Dolberg
Substitution
Denmark
9 K. Dolberg
M. Godts
Belgium
11 M. Godts
Pitch
M. Kovář
Czech Republic
32 M. Kovář
M. Ferreira dos Santos
Brazil
17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
Spain
3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
R. Flamingo
Netherlands
6 R. Flamingo
K. Sildillia
France
25 K. Sildillia
J. Veerman
Substitution
Netherlands
23 J. Veerman
P. Wanner
Substitution
Austria
10 P. Wanner
C. Driouech
Substitution
Morocco
11 C. Driouech
G. Til
Netherlands
20 G. Til
E. Bajraktarevic
Substitution
United States
19 E. Bajraktarevic
R. Pepi
Substitution
9 R. Pepi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Johan Cruijff Arena
Capacity :
55885
Attendance :
54439
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Johan Balder
Allard Lindhout
Freek Vandeursen
Jannick van der Laan

Statistics

Possession
AJA
50%
PSV
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 2
53 Dangerous attacks 50
49 Possession 51
6 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 6
10 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Assists 1
15 Throwins 17
4 Substitutions 5
10 Goal Attempts 7
74 Ball Safe 78
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
20 Dribble Attempts 7
10 Successful Headers 16

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
106 Attacks 89

Possession

50 Long Passes 44
23 Successful Long Passes 20
401 Successful Passes 430
84 Successful Passes Percentage 86
475 Passes 502
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
10 Key Passes 5

Defensive

45 Duels Won 45
13 Tackles 18
9 Interceptions 11
1 Saves 2

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 14
2 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

7 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Allard Lindhout

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Paes
Maarten Paes Goalkeeper
7
2
Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa Defender
6.95
3
Anton Gaaei
Anton Gaaei Defender
6.78
15
Youri Baas
Youri Baas Defender
7.17
37
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Defender
6.79
4
Ko Itakura
Ko Itakura Midfielder
6.92
43
Rayane Bounida
Rayane Bounida
Attacker82'
7.1
6
Youri Regeer
Youri Regeer Midfielder
6.97
48
Sean Steur
Sean Steur
Midfielder71'
6.82
24
Jorthy Mokio
Jorthy Mokio Midfielder
6.8
9
Kasper Dolberg
Kasper Dolberg Attacker
6.76
19
Don-Angelo Konadu
Don-Angelo Konadu
Attacker82'
6.66
11
Mika Godts
Mika Godts Attacker
7.62
23
Steven Berghuis
Steven Berghuis Attacker
7.37
10
Oscar Gloukh
Oscar Gloukh
Midfielder71'
6.95
Referee : Allard Lindhout

Starting XI ▼

32
Matej Kovar
Matej Kovar Goalkeeper
6.84
3
Yarek Gasiorowski
Yarek Gasiorowski Defender
6.9
6
Ryan Flamingo
Ryan Flamingo Defender
6.8
17
Mauro Júnior
Mauro Júnior Defender
7.26
25
Kiliann Sildillia
Kiliann Sildillia Defender
6.76
10
Paul Wanner
Paul Wanner Midfielder
7
8
Sergiño Dest
Sergiño Dest
Defender60'
6.98
11
Couhaib Driouech
Couhaib Driouech Midfielder
6.82
35
Joël van den Berg
Joël van den Berg
Midfielder86'
6.76
19
Esmir Bajraktarevic
Esmir Bajraktarevic Midfielder
6.97
27
Dennis Man
Dennis Man
Attacker72'
7.01
20
Guus Til
Guus Til Midfielder
7.2
23
Joey Veerman
Joey Veerman Midfielder
7.93
31
Noah Fernandez
Noah Fernandez
Midfielder59'
6.5
9
Ricardo Pepi
Ricardo Pepi Attacker
7.21
21
Myron Boadu
Myron Boadu
Attacker72'
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mika Godts
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
90+2'
88'
Event
Dennis Man
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
86'
Event
Joël van den Berg → Couhaib Driouech
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Couhaib Driouech
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Rayane Bounida → Ko Itakura
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Don-Angelo Konadu → Kasper Dolberg
8th Substitution
82'
77'
Event
Myron Boadu
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Sean Steur
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
75'
72'
Event
Myron Boadu → Ricardo Pepi
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Dennis Man → Esmir Bajraktarevic
6th Substitution
Event
Oscar Gloukh → Steven Berghuis
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Sean Steur → Youri Regeer
4th Substitution
71'
60'
Event
Sergiño Dest → Paul Wanner
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Noah Fernandez → Joey Veerman
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Anton Gaaei
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
11'
1'
Event
Ricardo Pepi
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Goal! Mika Godts scores to make it 2-2.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mika Godts scores with a left-footed shot.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dennis Man receives a yellow card.
86
Update Update
Joel van den Berg is on, and Couhaib Driouech is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Gloukh takes a left-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Myron Boadu takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Anton Gaaei takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Couhaib Driouech.
77
Attempt Attempt
Myron Boadu scores with a left-footed shot.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sean Steur receives a yellow card.
72
Update Update
Dennis Man is on, and Esmir Bajraktarevic is off.
72
Update Update
Myron Boadu comes on for Ricardo Pepi.
71
Update Update
Sean Steur is on, and Youri Regeer is off.
71
Update Update
Oscar Gloukh replaces Steven Berghuis.
70
Update Update
Youri Baas takes a header, but it misses the target.
70
Attempt Attempt
Youri Baas attempts a header but misses the shot.
68
Update Update
Yarek Gasiorowski's header is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Mauro Junior takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
60
Update Update
Sergino Dest comes on for Paul Wanner.
59
Update Update
Noah Fernandez replaces Joey Veerman.
59
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Oliveira Rosa takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Steven Berghuis takes a left-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Couhaib Driouech takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Couhaib Driouech takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Ricardo Pepi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Youri Regeer takes a shot with his head but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jorthy Mokio takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Dolberg's right-footed shot is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Dolberg's right-footed shot is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Anton Gaaei takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
11
Update Update
Goal! Anton Gaaei scores, making it 1-1.
8
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Couhaib Driouech with his right foot is saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Ricardo Pepi scores with a header.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw between Ajax and PSV encapsulates a match of equilibrium, with halftime at 1-1 and possession closely matched. PSV's status as the stronger team clashed with the significant 77% structural deviation in their output, leading to a result outside market alignments. Efficiency held steady, and the lack of red cards or impactful events preserved a pure tactical duel. Ajax's defensive resolve neutralized PSV's edge, earning a valuable point. This outcome reinforces the unpredictability of high-stakes Eredivisie encounters, where fine margins dictate shared spoils.

Ajax vs PSV preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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