AIK vs Djurgården Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Strawberry Arena Sun, 10 May - 12:00 PM
Allsvenskan
AIK AIK
2 Winner 4
Djurgården DJU
Full Time Sun, 10 May 12:00 PM
Round 7 Regular Season
Dino Besirovic - 64'
Goal
|
Goal
B. Hegland - 86'
Mikael Marques - 45+2'
Miro Tenho - 16'
Hampus Finndell - 10'

CONTEXT

Djurgården claimed a convincing 4-2 away victory over AIK in the Allsvenskan, leading 3-1 at halftime and extending their advantage in the second half. Despite AIK holding 57% possession to Djurgården's 43%, the visitors demonstrated superior finishing and game management. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half adjustments or knockout implications. Pre-identified as the stronger team, Djurgården's win featured a significant 15.6% structural deviation in their favor, with efficiency metrics remaining in line with norms. The outcome aligned with pre-match market positioning, though xG data for both sides was unavailable, preventing detailed chance quality evaluation. AIK's response fell short, underscoring Djurgården's clinical edge.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed significant 15.6% deviation favoring Djurgården.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with performance standards.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, so alignment cannot be assessed.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments influenced the final outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any disciplinary distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Al Hakim

Sweden 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Mattsson

4th Official

Sweden

M. Culum

1st Assistant

Sweden

F. Klyver

2nd Assistant

Sweden

League averages

Allsvenskan Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.65
Yellow cards / match 3.21
Red cards / match 0.05
Penalties / match 0.19
AIK J. Riveiro
J. Riveiro
VS
Djurgården J. Honkavaara
J. Honkavaara
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elfsborg Rank: 57 D
Malmö FF Rank: 63 L
Degerfors Rank: 47 L
Kalmar Rank: 49 W
Brommapojkarna Rank: 49 D
Halmstad Rank: 45 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
IFK Göteborg Rank: 56 W
Hammarby Rank: 68 D
Elfsborg Rank: 57 L
Malmö FF Rank: 63 L
Kalmar Rank: 51 W
GAIS Rank: 59 W
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 13 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AIK
4.5%
Draw
11.12%
Away Djurgården
84.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.7
66.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AIK
Djurgården
Power Score
56.7
66.16
League Position
9
4
Global Rank
597
299

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AIK — Opponent-weighted form score
Djurgården — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AIK Djurgården

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AIK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Djurgården

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AIK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Djurgården
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.88
48.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
48.02
30.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AIK -1.77 Efficiency Index
vs
Djurgården +1.77 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AIK
Djurgården
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AIK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Djurgården
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AIK Djurgården
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AIK Djurgården
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AIK
Djurgården
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AIK
vs
Djurgården
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AIK Djurgården
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AIK 0.19
Djurgården 0.58
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AIK Djurgården
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AIK 0.12
Djurgården 0.03
AIK
Djurgården
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DJU had peak pressure around 51'.
  • AIK started the game with stronger pressure.
AIK Pressure DJU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DJU reached the top pressure at 51' (76.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AIK AIK Home
40 matches
Djurgården DJU Away
Match Record
21
Wins
6
13
Draws
13
6
Losses
21
Goals
55
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
55
+28
Goal Difference
-28

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:02:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
K. Nordfeldt
Sweden
15 K. Nordfeldt
M. Thychosen
Denmark
17 M. Thychosen
A. Csongvai
Hungary
33 A. Csongvai
I. Cissé
Ivory Coast
25 I. Cissé
S. Wilson
Kenya
21 S. Wilson
B. Celina
Kosovo
10 B. Celina
D. Beširović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
19 D. Beširović
A. Kouame
Substitution
Ivory Coast
48 A. Kouame
J. Hove
Norway
8 J. Hove
Zadok Yohanna
Substitution
36 Zadok Yohanna
K. Filling
Substitution
29 K. Filling
Pitch
J. Rinne
Sweden
35 J. Rinne
M. Larsson
Substitution
Sweden
24 M. Larsson
M. Marques
Sweden
21 M. Marques
M. Tenho
Finland
5 M. Tenho
P. Johansson
Sweden
2 P. Johansson
H. Finndell
Substitution
Sweden
14 H. Finndell
M. Siltanen
Finland
20 M. Siltanen
J. Okkels
Substitution
Denmark
19 J. Okkels
B. Hegland
Substitution
Norway
16 B. Hegland
P. Åslund
Substitution
Sweden
8 P. Åslund
K. Lien
Norway
9 K. Lien

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 7 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Strawberry Arena
Capacity :
54000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mohammed Al Hakim
Erik Mattsson
Mehmet Culum
Fredrik Klyver

Statistics

Possession
AIK
55%
DJU
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 4
9 Shots 18
72 Dangerous attacks 33
57 Possession 43
7 Corners 9
14 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

52 Successful Dribbles Percentage 52
4 Substitutions 5
13 Successful Dribbles 11
34 Throwins 24
25 Dribble Attempts 21
69 Ball Safe 69
1 Injuries 2
7 Goal Kicks 7
2 Assists 3
6 Goal Attempts 14
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

113 Attacks 74
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

45 Long Passes 55
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
389 Passes 296
80 Successful Passes Percentage 76
310 Successful Passes 225
9 Key Passes 13
27 Successful Long Passes 23

Defensive

19 Tackles 20
6 Saves 3
6 Interceptions 13
57 Duels Won 61

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 13
6 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

12 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Mohammed Al Hakim

Starting XI ▼

15
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Kristoffer Nordfeldt Goalkeeper
10
Bersant Celina
Bersant Celina Defender
17
Mads Thychosen
Mads Thychosen Defender
21
Stanley Wilson
Stanley Wilson Defender
25
Ibrahim Cissé
Ibrahim Cissé Defender
33
Áron Csongvai
Áron Csongvai Defender
8
Johan Hove
Johan Hove Midfielder
19
Dino Besirovic
Dino Besirovic Midfielder
7
Amel Mujanic
Amel Mujanic
Midfielder88'
48
Axel Kouame
Axel Kouame Midfielder
45
Taha Ayari
Taha Ayari
Midfielder73'
29
Kevin Filling
Kevin Filling Attacker
16
Sixten Gustafsson
Sixten Gustafsson
Attacker57'
36
Z. Yohanna
Z. Yohanna Attacker
11
Victor Gonçalves Andersson
Victor Gonçalves Andersson
Midfielder46'
Referee : Mohammed Al Hakim

Starting XI ▼

35
Jacob Rinne
Jacob Rinne Goalkeeper
2
Piotr Johansson
Piotr Johansson Defender
5
Miro Tenho
Miro Tenho Defender
21
Mikael Marques
Mikael Marques Defender
24
Max Larsson
Max Larsson Defender
18
Adam Ståhl
Adam Ståhl
Defender62'
8
Patric Åslund
Patric Åslund Midfielder
15
Oskar Fallenius
Oskar Fallenius
Attacker81'
14
Hampus Finndell
Hampus Finndell Midfielder
13
Daniel Stensson
Daniel Stensson
Midfielder81'
16
B. Hegland
B. Hegland Midfielder
22
Joel Asoro
Joel Asoro
Attacker89'
19
Jeppe Okkels
Jeppe Okkels Midfielder
10
Mikael Anderson
Mikael Anderson
Midfielder62'
20
Matias Siltanen
Matias Siltanen Midfielder
9
Kristian Strømland Lien
Kristian Strømland Lien Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Joel Asoro → B. Hegland
9th Substitution
Event
Amel Mujanic → Dino Besirovic
8th Substitution
88'
86'
Event
B. Hegland
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
Event
Jose Riveiro
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
84'
Event
5th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Bersant Celina
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
82'
81'
Event
Daniel Stensson → Hampus Finndell
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Oskar Fallenius → Patric Åslund
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Adam Ståhl
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Stanley Wilson
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
Event
Taha Ayari → Axel Kouame
5th Substitution
73'
70'
Event
Jani Honkavaara
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Dino Besirovic
Header / 5th Goal
64'
62'
Event
Adam Ståhl → Max Larsson
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Mikael Anderson → Jeppe Okkels
3rd Substitution
Event
Sixten Gustafsson → Kevin Filling
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Victor Gonçalves Andersson → Z. Yohanna
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Mikael Marques
Header / 4th Goal
30'
Event
Max Larsson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Kevin Filling
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
22'
16'
Event
Miro Tenho
Header / 2nd Goal
10'
Event
Hampus Finndell
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Aron Csongvai takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Aron Csongvai takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Aron Csongvai takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Neville Anderson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Aron Csongvai takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Aron Csongvai takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Matias Siltanen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Aron Csongvai takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Neville Anderson takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
89
Update Update
Joel Asoro is on, and Bo Asulv Hegland is off.
88
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Neville Anderson takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
88
Update Update
Amel Mujanic comes on for Dino Besirevic.
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Bo Asulv Hegland with his right foot results in a goal.
80
Attempt Attempt
Johan Hove takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
80
Attempt Attempt
Johan Hove takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
80
Update Update
Lars Erik Oskar Fallenius comes on for Patric Karl Emil Aslund.
79
Update Update
Daniel Stensson comes on for Hampus Finndell.
79
Attempt Attempt
Sixten Gustafsson's right-footed shot is blocked.
73
Update Update
Taha Ayari replaces Axel Kouame.
64
Update Update
Dino Besirevic scores with a header.
62
Update Update
Mikael Neville Anderson is on, and Jeppe Okkels is off.
62
Update Update
Adam Stahl is on, and Max Larsson is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Matias Siltanen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Update Update
Sixten Gustafsson comes on for Kevin Filling.
46
Substitution Substitution
Victor Andersson is substituted for Zadok Yohanna.
46
Attempt Attempt
Victor Andersson takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kouame's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Update Update
Mikael Marques scores with a header.
45
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kouame takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jeppe Okkels takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Lien's header is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Lien's header is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Lien's header is saved.
43
Update Update
Mikael Marques scores with a header.
39
Attempt Attempt
Patric Karl Emil Aslund takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kouame takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
31
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kouame's right-footed shot is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Filling takes a right-footed shot and scores.
22
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Filling takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
16
Update Update
Miro Tenho scores with a header.
10
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hampus Finndell scores to make it 0-1.
10
Attempt Attempt
Hampus Finndell takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
1
Attempt Attempt
Dino Besirevic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Djurgården's 4-2 win at AIK validated their status as the stronger side, overcoming lower possession through effective conversion. The halftime 3-1 lead set the tone, with AIK's 57% share failing to yield sufficient goals. Significant structural deviation of 15.6% marked Djurgården's outperformance, consistent with market alignment and steady efficiency. Lacking xG data and red cards, the scoreline purely reflected on-pitch execution. AIK's second-half efforts narrowed but did not bridge the gap, highlighting Djurgården's resilience and finishing prowess in a disciplined contest.

AIK vs Djurgården preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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