AGF vs Viborg FF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Vejlby Stadion Sun, 17 May - 4:00 PM
Superliga
AGF AGF
6 Winner 2
Viborg FF Viborg FF
Full Time Sun, 17 May 4:00 PM
Round 10 Championship Round
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson - 90+4', 86'
Sebastian Jørgensen - 70'
Gift Links - 35'
Patrick Mortensen - 27'
Frederik Emmery - 1'
Goal
|
Goal
Lukas Kirkegaard - 90+1'
Thomas Jørgensen - 34'

CONTEXT

AGF defeated Viborg FF by a final score of 6-2. The halftime score was 3-1 to the home side. AGF controlled 64 percent of possession while Viborg FF held 36 percent. Expected goals stood at 2.21 for AGF and 2.51 for Viborg FF producing a differential of minus 0.3. No red cards were shown to either team. AGF entered as the stronger side and claimed the victory. The outcome diverged from xG projections yet remained consistent with pre-match market signals showing only a 2.4 percent minimal deviation. Efficiency metrics aligned with the stronger team. The match demonstrated how actual goal tallies can exceed underlying chance creation statistics without altering the overall result direction.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AGF recorded a minimal 2.4 percent deviation from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was not consistent with expected goals values.
  • Market alignment: The result stayed aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: AGF scored six goals against an xG of 2.21 while Viborg FF scored two against an xG of 2.51.
  • Event impact: The 6-2 scoreline reflected second-half goal accumulation beyond initial chance metrics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards occurred producing no disciplinary distortion to the match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Putros

Denmark 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Bramsen

1st Assistant

Denmark

J. Mastrup

2nd Assistant

Denmark

A. Uslu

4th Official

Denmark

League averages

Superliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.02
Yellow cards / match 3.4
Red cards / match 0.13
Penalties / match 0.27
AGF J. Poulsen
J. Poulsen
VS
Viborg FF Nickolai Lund
Nickolai Lund
2.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.56
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brøndby IF Rank: 66 W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 W
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 D
Nordsjælland Rank: 68 D
FC Midtjylland Rank: 78 L
Nordsjælland Rank: 68 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 61 L
FC Midtjylland Rank: 80 D
Nordsjælland Rank: 67 W
Brøndby IF Rank: 65 L
Nordsjælland Rank: 68 L
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 61 W
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 9 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AGF
97.6%
Draw
1.91%
Away Viborg FF
0.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.46
63.05
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AGF
Viborg FF
Power Score
72.46
63.05
League Position
1
5
Global Rank
145
388

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AGF — Opponent-weighted form score
Viborg FF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AGF Viborg FF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AGF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Viborg FF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AGF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Viborg FF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.13
70.28
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
70.28
28.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AGF -4.01 Efficiency Index
vs
Viborg FF +4.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AGF
Viborg FF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AGF
vs
Viborg FF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AGF Viborg FF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AGF Viborg FF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
AGF
Viborg FF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AGF
vs
Viborg FF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AGF Viborg FF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AGF 0.40
Viborg FF 0.50
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AGF Viborg FF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AGF 0.04
Viborg FF 0.15
AGF
Viborg FF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Viborg FF had peak pressure around 68'.
  • Viborg FF started the game with stronger pressure.
AGF Pressure Viborg FF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Viborg FF reached the top pressure at 68' (73.84).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AGF AGF Home
31 matches
Viborg FF Viborg FF Away
Match Record
13
Wins
9
9
Draws
9
9
Losses
13
Goals
46
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
46
+11
Goal Difference
-11

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:04:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Christiansen
Norway
21 M. Christiansen
F. Beijmo
Sweden
2 F. Beijmo
F. Tingager
Substitution
Denmark
5 F. Tingager
E. Kahl
Sweden
19 E. Kahl
G. Links
Substitution
South Africa
11 G. Links
M. Knudsen
Substitution
Norway
4 M. Knudsen
K. Malt Arnstad
Norway
10 K. Malt Arnstad
F. Emmery Søgaard
Substitution
39 F. Emmery Søgaard
S. Jørgensen
Denmark
8 S. Jørgensen
T. Kristensen
Denmark
31 T. Kristensen
P. Mortensen
Substitution
Denmark
9 (C) P. Mortensen
Pitch
L. Pedersen
Denmark
1 L. Pedersen
S. Kuzmic
Slovenia
30 S. Kuzmic
D. Anyembe
Kenya
24 D. Anyembe
L. Kirkegaard
Denmark
32 L. Kirkegaard
H. Bidstrup
Substitution
Denmark
26 H. Bidstrup
A. Bech
Substitution
Denmark
8 A. Bech
J. Grønning
Substitution
Denmark
13 (C) J. Grønning
T. Jørgensen
Denmark
10 T. Jørgensen
C. Ngos Nouck Horneman
Substitution
Denmark
11 C. Ngos Nouck Horneman
D. Hanza Meha
Equatorial Guinea
19 D. Hanza Meha
S. Jalal Karchoud
Substitution
Denmark
29 S. Jalal Karchoud

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 10 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Vejlby Stadion
Capacity :
11500
Attendance :
11573
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sandi Putros
Steffen Beck Bramsen
Jakob Mastrup
Aydin Uslu

Statistics

Possession
AGF
59%
Viborg FF
41%

Top Statistics

6 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 9
40 Dangerous attacks 46
64 Possession 36
2 Corners 2
18 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Goal Attempts 16
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
6 Assists 0
90 Ball Safe 72
18 Throwins 19
14 Successful Dribbles 5
21 Dribble Attempts 13
8 Goal Kicks 7
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

0 Counter Attacks 2
82 Attacks 67
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

522 Successful Passes 268
11 Key Passes 19
39 Long Passes 46
87 Successful Passes Percentage 83
597 Passes 323
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
20 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

7 Saves 4
21 Tackles 11
55 Duels Won 36
4 Interceptions 9

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
7 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

11 Fouls 18
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Sandi Putros

Starting XI ▼

21
Mads Hedenstad
Mads Hedenstad Goalkeeper
7.68
2
Felix Beijmo
Felix Beijmo Defender
6.71
5
Frederik Tingager
Frederik Tingager Defender
6.96
3
Henrik Dalsgaard
Henrik Dalsgaard
Defender63'
6.53
19
Eric Kahl
Eric Kahl Defender
7.18
4
Magnus Knudsen
Magnus Knudsen Midfielder
6.73
7
Markus Solbakken
Markus Solbakken
Midfielder75'
6.42
10
Kristian Arnstad
Kristian Arnstad Midfielder
7.42
11
Gift Links
Gift Links Midfielder
7.68
26
Jacob Andersen
Jacob Andersen
Defender63'
6.75
39
Frederik Emmery
Frederik Emmery Midfielder
9
20
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Attacker75'
2
8.53
8
Sebastian Jørgensen
Sebastian Jørgensen Attacker
7.82
9
Patrick Mortensen
Patrick Mortensen (C) Attacker
7.17
57
James Bogere
James Bogere
Attacker55'
6.53
31
Tobias Bech
Tobias Bech Attacker
7.62
Referee : Sandi Putros

Starting XI ▼

1
Lucas Lund
Lucas Lund Goalkeeper
5.8
24
Daniel Anyembe
Daniel Anyembe Defender
6.14
26
Hjalte Bidstrup
Hjalte Bidstrup Defender
6.3
23
Oliver Bundgaard
Oliver Bundgaard
Defender58'
5.83
30
Srdjan Kuzmic
Srdjan Kuzmic Defender
6.16
32
Lukas Kirkegaard
Lukas Kirkegaard Defender
6.6
8
Asker Beck
Asker Beck Midfielder
6.28
33
Frederik Damkjer
Frederik Damkjer
Midfielder84'
6.36
10
Thomas Jørgensen
Thomas Jørgensen Midfielder
7.55
13
Jeppe Grønning
Jeppe Grønning (C) Midfielder
6.05
5
Zan Zaletel
Zan Zaletel
Defender84'
5.84
11
Charly Nouck
Charly Nouck Attacker
6.47
17
Osman Addo
Osman Addo
Attacker68'
6.56
19
Dorian Hanza
Dorian Hanza Attacker
6.79
29
Sami Jalal
Sami Jalal Attacker
6.79
21
Bilal Brahimi
Bilal Brahimi
Midfielder67'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Right foot shot / 8th Goal
90+4'
90+1'
Event
Lukas Kirkegaard
Right foot shot / 7th Goal
Event
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
86'
84'
Event
Frederik Damkjer → Asker Beck
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Zan Zaletel → Jeppe Grønning
10th Substitution
Event
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson → Frederik Emmery
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Markus Solbakken → Magnus Knudsen
8th Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Jeppe Grønning
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Sebastian Jørgensen
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
70'
68'
Event
Osman Addo → Charly Nouck
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Bilal Brahimi → Sami Jalal
5th Substitution
Event
Jacob Andersen → Gift Links
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Henrik Dalsgaard → Frederik Tingager
4th Substitution
63'
58'
Event
Oliver Bundgaard → Hjalte Bidstrup
2nd Substitution
Event
Felix Beijmo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
Event
James Bogere → Patrick Mortensen
1st Substitution
55'
54'
Event
Daniel Anyembe
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Magnus Knudsen
Red card cancelled
45+5'
Event
Magnus Knudsen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+5'
Event
Gift Links
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
35'
34'
Event
Thomas Jørgensen
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Patrick Mortensen
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
27'
Event
Frederik Emmery
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Dorian Hanza takes a shot with his head but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
James Bogere attempted a header but missed the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
James Bogere attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Bundgaard takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Kirkegaard takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Kristjansson takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Bilal Brahimi takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Srdjan Kuzmic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Bundgaard takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
James Bogere takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Srdjan Kuzmic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
84
Update Update
Zan Zaletel replaces Jeppe Gronning.
84
Substitution Substitution
Frederik Damkjer is substituted off for Asker Beck.
80
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Malt Arnstad takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Malt Arnstad takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Update Update
Markus Solbakken comes on for Magnus Knudsen.
75
Attempt Attempt
Asker Beck's right-footed shot is blocked.
75
Update Update
Markus Solbakken comes on for Magnus Knudsen.
70
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Jorgensen scores with a left-footed shot.
69
Update Update
Asker Beck's header attempt goes wide.
68
Update Update
Osman Addo comes on for Charly Horneman.
68
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Bundgaard's left-footed shot is blocked.
67
Update Update
Bilal Brahimi comes on for Sami Jalal Karchoud.
66
Attempt Attempt
Charly Horneman takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Jorgensen's left-footed shot is saved.
63
Update Update
Henrik Dalsgaard replaces Frederik Tingager.
63
Substitution Substitution
Jacob Andersen is substituted for Gift Links.
62
Attempt Attempt
James Bogere takes a right-footed shot but misses.
61
Attempt Attempt
Dorian Hanza's right-footed shot is saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Sami Jalal Karchoud takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Sami Jalal Karchoud takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
58
Update Update
Oliver Bundgaard is on, and Hjalte Bidstrup is off.
57
Attempt Attempt
Srdjan Kuzmic's right-footed shot is saved.
55
Update Update
James Bogere comes on for Patrick Mortensen.
48
Attempt Attempt
Jeppe Gronning's right-footed shot is blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Charly Horneman's left-footed shot is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Sami Jalal Karchoud attempts a header but misses the shot.
42
Update Update
Hjalte Bidstrup's header attempt goes wide.
41
Attempt Attempt
Sami Jalal Karchoud takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Felix Beijmo takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Gift Links scores with a left-footed shot.
34
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Jorgensen takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
34
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Thomas Jorgensen scores with a left-footed shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Patrick Mortensen scores with a left-footed shot.
27
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Patrick Mortensen scores, making it 2-0.
27
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Patrick Mortensen with his left foot results in a goal.
6
Attempt Attempt
Eric Kahl takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Asker Beck takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Sandi Putros.
1
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Emmery takes a shot with his right foot and scores.

CONCLUSION

The 6-2 result for AGF over Viborg FF illustrates the separation between chance creation and finishing outcomes. Although Viborg FF generated a higher xG total the home side converted opportunities more effectively across both halves. Possession dominance by AGF supported sustained pressure that translated into additional goals after the interval. Absence of red cards maintained a full complement of players allowing standard tactical patterns to persist. The minimal deviation from pre-match indicators confirmed that the winner aligned with baseline team strength assessments. Variance in finishing efficiency accounted for the gap between expected and actual goals without shifting the overall competitive hierarchy. This performance underscores how single-match data can diverge from aggregate metrics while still reflecting underlying team quality differentials.

AGF vs Viborg FF preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.