AGF vs Nordsjælland Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark

Vejlby Stadion Fri, 10 Apr - 5:00 PM

Superliga

AGF AGF

1 – 1

Nordsjælland FCN

Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 5:00 PM

Round 4 Championship Round

Frederik Tingager - 82'

Juho Lähteenmäki - 9'

CONTEXT

The match between AGF and Nordsjælland has finished with a full-time score of 1-1. This draw represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, which had pointed strongly toward an AGF victory. Nordsjælland were identified as the stronger team overall and secured a result that exceeded what most forecasts anticipated, earning a point despite entering as clear underdogs. AGF controlled possession at 61 percent to Nordsjælland’s 39 percent and fought back from a 0-1 half-time deficit. No red cards were issued to either side, and the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations across both teams. Without available xG data, it remains unclear precisely how the scoring chances translated, yet the outcome ultimately failed to align with the pre-match projection favoring the home side. Both squads showed solid organization in the second half as AGF pushed for a winner that never arrived. The shared points reflected a competitive encounter where Nordsjælland’s resilience proved decisive in frustrating the hosts.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Nordsjælland showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

M. Redder

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Bramsen

1st Assistant

A. Bøgebjerg

2nd Assistant

F. Svendsen

4th Official

J. Poulsen

J. Olsen

2.07

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.79

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

17 - 12 - 27

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

AGF

50.8%

Draw

23.94%

Nordsjælland

25.26%

Movement

Changes since opening

AGF

+45.29%

Draw

-62.03%

Nordsjælland

+16.74%

Team Power Ranking

36.92

37.99

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

AGF

Nordsjælland

Power Score

36.92

37.99

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

AGF — Opponent-weighted form score

Nordsjælland — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AGF Nordsjælland

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

AGF

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Nordsjælland

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AGF ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Nordsjælland

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

46.15

23.46

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

23.46

46.15

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

AGF +2.23 Efficiency Index

Nordsjælland -2.23 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

AGF

Nordsjælland

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AGF ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Nordsjælland

Created Set-piece attacking threat

AGF Nordsjælland

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

AGF Nordsjælland

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

AGF

Nordsjælland

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

AGF

Nordsjælland

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

AGF Nordsjælland

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

AGF Nordsjælland

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

AGF

Nordsjælland

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

AGF had peak pressure around 97'.
FCN started the game with stronger pressure.

AGF Pressure FCN Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: AGF reached the top pressure at 97' (95.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 56 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AGF AGF Home

56 matches

Nordsjælland FCN Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-23

Goal Difference

+23

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:02:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

1 J. Hansen

2 F. Beijmo

3 H. Dalsgaard

19 E. Kahl

11 G. Links

4 M. Knudsen

17 K. Yakob

39 F. Emmery Søgaard

31 T. Kristensen

10 K. Malt Arnstad

13 J. Serra

13 A. Hansen

36 C. Yirenkyi

3 T. Salquist

2 P. Ankersen

23 R. Norheim

47 M. Såby Heyde

18 J. Meltofte Janssen

25 J. Lähteenmäki

14 I. Adel

37 M. Lamine Sadio

11 A. Rasmussen

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 10, 2026, 05:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 4 · Championship Round

Stadium :

Vejlby Stadion

Capacity :

11500

Attendance :

10620

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Steffen Beck Bramsen

Andreas Bøgebjerg

Frederik Svendsen

Mikkel Redder

Statistics

Possession

AGF

60%

FCN

40%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

3 Big Chances Created 0

11 Shots 3

63 Dangerous attacks 23

61 Possession 39

5 Corners 1

16 Free kicks 10

0 Yellow Cards 6

Match Overview

26 Dribble Attempts 14

2 Goal Kicks 12

14 Successful Dribbles 6

1 Assists 1

54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43

23 Throwins 18

2 Hit Woodwork 1

0 Injuries 1

20 Goal Attempts 6

5 Substitutions 5

74 Ball Safe 84

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0

152 Attacks 72

0 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

478 Successful Passes 288

52 Long Passes 54

563 Passes 365

19 Key Passes 3

85 Successful Passes Percentage 79

27 Successful Long Passes 23

52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

19 Tackles 20

1 Saves 7

12 Interceptions 15

58 Duels Won 42

Build-up

11 Accurate Crosses 0

27 Total Crosses 3

Discipline

10 Fouls 16

3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Mikkel Redder

Manager ▼

J. Poulsen Coach

Starting XI ▼

Jesper Hansen Goalkeeper

Felix Beijmo Defender

Henrik Dalsgaard Defender

Frederik Tingager

Defender82'

Eric Kahl Defender

Magnus Knudsen Midfielder

Gift Links Midfielder

Kevin Yakob Midfielder

Sebastian Jørgensen

Midfielder73'

Frederik Emmery Midfielder

Jacob Andersen

Defender82'

Kristian Arnstad Attacker

Janni Serra Attacker

Patrick Mortensen

Attacker62'

Tobias Bech Attacker

James Bogere

Attacker82'

Substitutes ▼

Patrick Mortensen

Attacker62'

Sebastian Jørgensen

Midfielder73'

Jacob Andersen

Defender82'

James Bogere

Attacker82'

Frederik Tingager

Defender82'

Bench ▼

Mads Hedenstad Goalkeeper

Tobias Mölgaard Defender

Jonas Jensen-Abbew Defender

Tómas Óli Kristjánsson Attacker

Referee : Mikkel Redder