AGF vs FC Midtjylland Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark

Vejlby Stadion Sun, 26 Apr - 6:00 PM

Superliga

AGF AGF

0 – 0

FC Midtjylland FCM

Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 6:00 PM

Round 7 Championship Round

CONTEXT

AGF and FC Midtjylland played out a tense 0-0 draw in the Danish Superliga, with the halftime score also locked at 0-0. AGF held the edge in possession at 57% to Midtjylland's 43%, yet neither team could find a breakthrough. FC Midtjylland entered as the stronger team but failed to impose their quality, resulting in a stalemate that defied expectations. The match featured a significant structural deviation of 71.3% favoring FC Midtjylland, highlighting unexpected tactical dynamics. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half adjustments, keeping the game structurally balanced. AGF's home advantage in ball control did not translate to goals, while Midtjylland's attacking intent was repelled by solid defending. This low-event affair emphasized defensive resilience over offensive flair.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: The match exhibited a significant structural deviation of 71.3% favoring FC Midtjylland.
Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations throughout the contest.
xG alignment: xG data was unavailable, preventing assessment of alignment with actual outcome.
Market alignment: The draw outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to absent data.
Event impact: No major events or adjustments influenced the match progression.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to game structure.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

J. A. Sundberg

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

J. Poulsen

M. Tullberg

1.8

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

13 - 11 - 29

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

AGF

35.64%

Draw

28.73%

FC Midtjylland

35.64%

Movement

Changes since opening

AGF

+31.16%

Draw

-62.69%

FC Midtjylland

+31.55%

Team Power Ranking

31.33

40.6

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

AGF

FC Midtjylland

Power Score

31.33

40.6

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

AGF — Opponent-weighted form score

FC Midtjylland — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AGF FC Midtjylland

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

AGF

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

FC Midtjylland

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AGF ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy FC Midtjylland

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

28.95

29.88

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

29.88

28.95

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

AGF -0.09 Efficiency Index

FC Midtjylland +0.09 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

AGF

FC Midtjylland

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AGF ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy FC Midtjylland

Created Set-piece attacking threat

AGF FC Midtjylland

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

AGF FC Midtjylland

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

AGF

FC Midtjylland

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

AGF

FC Midtjylland

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

AGF FC Midtjylland

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

AGF FC Midtjylland

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

AGF

FC Midtjylland

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

AGF had peak pressure around 31'.
AGF started the game with stronger pressure.

AGF Pressure FCM Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: AGF reached the top pressure at 31' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 53 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AGF AGF Home

53 matches

FC Midtjylland FCM Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-33

Goal Difference

+33

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:20:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

1 J. Hansen

2 F. Beijmo

3 H. Dalsgaard

19 E. Kahl

11 G. Links

4 M. Knudsen

17 K. Yakob

26 J. Andersen

31 T. Kristensen

10 K. Malt Arnstad

13 J. Serra

16 E. Olafsson

22 M. Bech Sørensen

3 H. Lee

4 O. Diao

55 V. Jensen

8 P. Billing

19 P. Bravo Landazuri

43 K. Mbabu

58 D. Simsir

11 D. Osorio Osorio

10 K. Cho

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 26, 2026, 06:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 7 · Championship Round

Stadium :

Vejlby Stadion

Capacity :

11500

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Jakob A. Sundberg

Statistics

Possession

AGF

55%

FCM

45%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 1

2 Shots 2

70 Dangerous attacks 37

57 Possession 43

6 Corners 3

18 Free kicks 10

0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 10

9 Goal Attempts 6

3 Substitutions 3

28 Throwins 13

43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38

63 Ball Safe 73

6 Successful Dribbles 8

14 Dribble Attempts 21

Attacking

2 Counter Attacks 3

1 Big Chances Missed 1

88 Attacks 62

Possession

12 Key Passes 7

74 Successful Passes Percentage 71

265 Successful Passes 193

33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

359 Passes 273

51 Long Passes 57

17 Successful Long Passes 22

Defensive

2 Saves 2

18 Tackles 18

6 Interceptions 17

60 Duels Won 52

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 10

6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

0 Offsides 2

10 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Jakob A. Sundberg

Manager ▼

J. Poulsen Coach

Starting XI ▼

Jesper Hansen Goalkeeper

6.92

Felix Beijmo Defender

7.23

Henrik Dalsgaard Defender

6.83

Eric Kahl Defender

6.93

Frederik Tingager

Defender90+2'

6.84

Magnus Knudsen Midfielder

6.99

Gift Links Midfielder

7.34

Kevin Yakob Midfielder

6.85

Jacob Andersen Midfielder

6.63

Frederik Emmery

Attacker70'

6.78

Kristian Arnstad Attacker

7.29

Janni Serra Attacker

6.69

Patrick Mortensen

Attacker46'

6.77

Tobias Bech Attacker

7.22

Substitutes ▼

Patrick Mortensen

Attacker46'

6.77

Frederik Emmery

Attacker70'

6.78

Frederik Tingager

Defender90+2'

6.84

Bench ▼

Mads Hedenstad Goalkeeper

Tobias Mölgaard Defender

Jonas Jensen-Abbew Defender

6.38

Nicolai Poulsen Midfielder

6.85

Sebastian Jørgensen Midfielder

6.71

James Bogere Attacker

6.43

Referee : Jakob A. Sundberg