AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Vitality Stadium Tue, 19 May - 6:30 PM
Premier League
AFC Bournemouth BOU
Versus
Manchester City MCI
KICKOFF : Tue, 19 May - 6:30 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

AFC Bournemouth welcome Manchester City to Vitality Stadium in a Premier League regular season clash during the 2025/2026 campaign. The Cherries, perched in 6th place, face a daunting task against the 2nd-placed Citizens, who boast a commanding 25-point power advantage (98.73 vs 73.75). City's superior standing underscores their structural dominance, while recent form scores remain neck-and-neck at 40.11 for the visitors and 39.06 for the hosts. Bournemouth will lean on home advantage to disrupt City's rhythm, but the Sky Blues' pedigree suggests control from the outset. With no recent outings detailed, anticipation builds around tactical setups and individual battles. Set-piece and efficiency metrics remain unavailable, heightening focus on open-play dynamics. This matchup pits resilience against relentless quality.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Manchester City hold a 25-point power advantage over AFC Bournemouth.
  • Form: Form scores are similar, with Manchester City at 40.11 and AFC Bournemouth at 39.06.
  • Squad: AFC Bournemouth are 6th and Manchester City 2nd in the Premier League table.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not provided.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG metrics and low confidence.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable for both teams.
  • Market: AFC Bournemouth 21.3% (Δ+0.4%) | Draw 22.3% (Δ+0.1%) | Manchester City 56.4% (Δ-0.5%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
AFC Bournemouth A. Iraola
A. Iraola
VS
Manchester City Josep Guardiola
Josep Guardiola
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.2
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fulham Rank: 86 W
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 W
Leeds United Rank: 87 D
Newcastle United Rank: 89 W
Arsenal Rank: 98 W
Manchester United Rank: 92 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 W
Brentford Rank: 89 W
Everton Rank: 87 D
Burnley Rank: 77 W
Arsenal Rank: 98 W
Chelsea Rank: 88 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 18
18
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AFC Bournemouth
21.29%
Draw
22.29%
Away Manchester City
56.42%

Movement

Changes since opening
AFC Bournemouth
+0.38%
Draw
+0.09%
Manchester City
-0.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.75
98.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AFC Bournemouth
Manchester City
Power Score
73.75
98.73
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
11
2

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AFC Bournemouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Manchester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AFC Bournemouth Manchester City

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AFC Bournemouth BOU Home
19 matches
Manchester City MCI Away
Match Record
1
Wins
18
0
Draws
0
18
Losses
1
Goals
13
Goals Scored
56
56
Goals Conceded
13
-43
Goal Difference
+43

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:10:30+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
Đ. Petrović
1 Đ. Petrović
A. Smith
15 A. Smith
J. Hill
23 J. Hill
M. Senesi
5 M. Senesi
A. Truffert
3 A. Truffert
A. Scott
8 A. Scott
T. Adams
12 T. Adams
R. Rocha
37 R. Rocha
E. Kroupi
22 E. Kroupi
M. Tavernier
16 M. Tavernier
F. de Lima Barbosa
9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Pitch
G. Donnarumma
25 G. Donnarumma
R. Aït Nouri
21 R. Aït Nouri
J. Gvardiol
24 J. Gvardiol
A. Khusanov
45 A. Khusanov
M. Nunes
27 M. Nunes
B. Silva
20 B. Silva
N. González Iglesias
14 N. González Iglesias
J. Doku
11 J. Doku
M. Cherki
10 M. Cherki
A. Semenyo
42 A. Semenyo
O. Marmoush
7 O. Marmoush

General Information

Date & Time :
May 19, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Vitality Stadium
Capacity :
11700
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Anthony Taylor
Adam Nunn
Craig Pawson
Gary Beswick

Expected Lineup

Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

1
Djordje Petrovic
Djordje Petrovic Goalkeeper
6.8
9
Evanilson
Evanilson Centre Forward
6.8
3
Adrien Truffert
Adrien Truffert Left Back
6.84
5
Marcos Senesi
Marcos Senesi Left Back
7.08
8
Alex Scott
Alex Scott Defensive Midfield
6.99
12
Tyler Adams
Tyler Adams Defensive Midfield
6.81
15
Adam Smith
Adam Smith Right Back
6.54
16
Marcus Tavernier
Marcus Tavernier Left Wing
6.94
22
Eli Kroupi
Eli Kroupi Attacking Midfield
6.86
23
James Hill
James Hill Right Back
6.94
37
Rayan
Rayan Right Wing
7.02
Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper
6.9
7
Omar Marmoush
Omar Marmoush Centre Forward
6.94
24
Josko Gvardiol
Josko Gvardiol Left Back
7.02
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
Abdukodir Khusanov Right Back
6.92
10
Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki Attacking Midfield
7.33
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku Left Wing
7.22
20
Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva Defensive Midfield
6.96
27
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes Right Back
7.07
42
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Right Wing
7
14
Nico González
Nico González Defensive Midfield
6.93
21
Rayan Aït-Nouri
Rayan Aït-Nouri Left Back
6.89

CONCLUSION

Manchester City's overwhelming power edge positions them as clear favorites at Vitality Stadium, where Bournemouth's mid-table grit faces elite firepower. The Cherries' home form offers slim hope, but City's league standing and marginal form superiority tilt the scales decisively. Expect the visitors to dictate tempo through possession mastery, testing Bournemouth's defensive resolve. Without set-piece or efficiency insights, the duel hinges on transitional moments and squad depth. A City masterclass looms, though an inspired Bournemouth performance could yield a competitive spectacle and vital points in their top-half push.

AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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