AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Vitality Stadium Wed, 22 Apr - 7:00 PM
Premier League
AFC Bournemouth BOU
2 – 2
Leeds United LEE
Full Time Wed, 22 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Rayan - 85'
Eli Kroupi - 60'
Goal
|
Goal
Sean Longstaff - 90+7'
James Hill - 68' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

AFC Bournemouth hosted Leeds United in a pulsating Premier League encounter that ended in a 2-2 draw. The first half finished goalless, with Bournemouth controlling 60% possession but struggling to convert chances against a resilient Leeds defense. Leeds, deemed the stronger team pre-match, grew into the game after the break, matching Bournemouth's intensity. Both sides scored twice in the second half, showcasing end-to-end action and defensive lapses. Despite Bournemouth's dominance in territory, Leeds' efficiency in key moments secured a valuable point. The result represents a significant deviation from pre-match market expectations, which heavily favored a home win. No red cards were shown, and the draw leaves both teams with mixed feelings ahead of their next fixtures.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited a significant 96.3% structural deviation favoring Leeds United.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome not aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No notable second-half adjustments or knockout events impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Salisbury

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Perry

1st Assistant

S. Allison

4th Official

N. Greenhalgh

2nd Assistant

AFC Bournemouth A. Iraola
A. Iraola
VS
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.24
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Newcastle United Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: D
Burnley Rank: D
Brentford Rank: D
Sunderland Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: W
Brentford Rank: D
Crystal Palace Rank: D
Sunderland Rank: L
Manchester City Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AFC Bournemouth
96.11%
Draw
3.7%
Away Leeds United
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.13
30.55
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
Power Score
30.13
30.55
League Position
7
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AFC Bournemouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AFC Bournemouth Leeds United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AFC Bournemouth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Leeds United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AFC Bournemouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leeds United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.67
29.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.75
34.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AFC Bournemouth +0.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Leeds United -0.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AFC Bournemouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leeds United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AFC Bournemouth Leeds United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AFC Bournemouth Leeds United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AFC Bournemouth
vs
Leeds United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AFC Bournemouth Leeds United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AFC Bournemouth 0.22
Leeds United 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AFC Bournemouth Leeds United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AFC Bournemouth 0.05
Leeds United 0.03
AFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BOU had peak pressure around 59'.
  • BOU started the game with stronger pressure.
BOU Pressure LEE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BOU reached the top pressure at 59' (90.64).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AFC Bournemouth BOU Home
7 matches
Leeds United LEE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
2
Goals
15
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
15
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-23T00:04:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
Đ. Petrović
Serbia
1 Đ. Petrović
A. Jiménez Sánchez
Spain
20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
J. Hill
England
23 J. Hill
M. Senesi
Argentina
5 M. Senesi
A. Truffert
France
3 A. Truffert
A. Scott
England
8 A. Scott
R. Christie
Substitution
Scotland
10 R. Christie
D. Brooks
Substitution
Wales
7 D. Brooks
E. Kroupi
Substitution
France
22 E. Kroupi
M. Tavernier
Substitution
England
16 M. Tavernier
F. de Lima Barbosa
Brazil
9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Pitch
K. Darlow
Wales
26 K. Darlow
P. Struijk
Netherlands
5 P. Struijk
J. Bijol
Substitution
Slovenia
15 J. Bijol
J. Justin
England
24 J. Justin
G. Gudmundsson
Sweden
3 G. Gudmundsson
A. Tanaka
Substitution
Japan
22 A. Tanaka
E. Ampadu
Wales
4 E. Ampadu
J. Bogle
Substitution
England
2 J. Bogle
N. Okafor
Substitution
Switzerland
19 N. Okafor
B. Aaronson
Substitution
United States
11 B. Aaronson
D. Calvert-Lewin
England
9 D. Calvert-Lewin

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 22, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Vitality Stadium
Capacity :
11700
Attendance :
11226
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Michael Salisbury
Marc Perry
Samuel Allison
Nick Greenhalgh

Statistics

Possession
BOU
57%
LEE
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 5
76 Dangerous attacks 38
60 Possession 40
12 Corners 1
11 Free kicks 8
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

12 Goal Attempts 6
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
27 Throwins 19
7 Goal Kicks 6
75 Ball Safe 63
1 Injuries 0
14 Dribble Attempts 12
21 Successful Headers 28
7 Successful Dribbles 7
4 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0
1 Hit Woodwork 2

Attacking

113 Attacks 91
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

27 Successful Long Passes 23
371 Successful Passes 234
80 Successful Passes Percentage 75
60 Long Passes 48
465 Passes 310
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
14 Key Passes 7

Defensive

10 Tackles 22
48 Duels Won 64
13 Interceptions 6
2 Saves 5

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 11
10 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

7 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Michael Salisbury

Starting XI ▼

1
Djordje Petrovic
Djordje Petrovic Goalkeeper
6.8
3
Adrien Truffert
Adrien Truffert Defender
6.8
5
Marcos Senesi
Marcos Senesi Defender
7.03
20
Álex Jiménez
Álex Jiménez Defender
6.72
23
James Hill
James Hill Defender
6.94
7
David Brooks
David Brooks Midfielder
6.72
37
Rayan
Rayan
Attacker67'
6.98
8
Alex Scott
Alex Scott Midfielder
6.98
10
Ryan Christie
Ryan Christie Midfielder
6.69
21
Amine Adli
Amine Adli
Attacker73'
6.78
16
Marcus Tavernier
Marcus Tavernier Midfielder
6.93
27
Alex Tóth
Alex Tóth
Midfielder90+1'
6.47
22
Eli Kroupi
Eli Kroupi Midfielder
6.83
12
Tyler Adams
Tyler Adams
Midfielder73'
6.78
9
Evanilson
Evanilson Attacker
6.82
Referee : Michael Salisbury

Starting XI ▼

26
Karl Darlow
Karl Darlow Goalkeeper
6.79
5
Pascal Struijk
Pascal Struijk Defender
6.92
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Defender
6.88
14
Lukas Nmecha
Lukas Nmecha
Attacker64'
6.71
24
James Justin
James Justin Defender
6.9
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Midfielder
6.59
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon
Defender46'
6.76
3
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Gabriel Gudmundsson Midfielder
6.65
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu Midfielder
7
22
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka Midfielder
6.79
10
Joël Piroe
Joël Piroe
Attacker89'
6.55
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Attacker
6.91
11
Brenden Aaronson
Brenden Aaronson Attacker
6.75
8
Sean Longstaff
Sean Longstaff
Midfielder84'
6.98
19
Noah Okafor
Noah Okafor Attacker
6.8
29
Wilfried Gnonto
Wilfried Gnonto
Attacker64'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Sean Longstaff
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Evanilson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Evanilson
Goal disallowed
90+2'
Event
Alex Tóth → Marcus Tavernier
9th Substitution
90+1'
89'
Event
Joël Piroe → Ao Tanaka
8th Substitution
Event
Rayan
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
85'
84'
Event
Sean Longstaff → Brenden Aaronson
7th Substitution
Event
Amine Adli → Ryan Christie
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Tyler Adams → Eli Kroupi
5th Substitution
73'
68'
Event
James Hill
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
Event
Rayan → David Brooks
4th Substitution
67'
64'
Event
Wilfried Gnonto → Noah Okafor
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Lukas Nmecha → Jaka Bijol
3rd Substitution
Event
Eli Kroupi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
60'
46'
Event
Joe Rodon → Jayden Bogle
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Álex Jiménez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
41'
Event
Eli Kroupi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'

Match Commentary

89
Update Update
Marcos Senesi from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Joël Piroe replaces Ao Tanaka.
89
Update Update
Dominic Calvert-Lewin fouled a Leeds United player.
88
Corner Corner
Marcos Senesi of Bournemouth hits the bar with a header from the center of the box, assisted by Alex Scott's cross following a corner.
87
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Ethan Ampadu concedes.
85
Attempt Attempt
Amine Adli's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Evanilson.
85
Attempt Attempt
Joe Rodon of Leeds United attempts an attack with a header from the left side of the box, but it's saved.
85
Corner Corner
Bournemouth is awarded a corner after Pascal Struijk concedes.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bournemouth leads 2-1 against Leeds United. Rayan scores for Bournemouth with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Tyler Adams' cross following a corner.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Sean Longstaff replaces Brenden Aaronson.
81
Update Update
James Justin from Leeds United won a free kick in defense.
81
Update Update
James Justin of Leeds United won a free kick in defense.
80
Corner Corner
Bournemouth is awarded a corner after Joe Rodon concedes.
78
Update Update
James Justin from Leeds United won a free kick in defense.
78
Update Update
Rayan from Bournemouth committed a foul.
77
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Alex Scott of Bournemouth takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Leeds United's goalkeeper, Karl Darlow, in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Amine Adli.
76
Corner Corner
James Hill from Bournemouth missed a chance, heading the ball from the center of the box over the goal. The assist came from Alex Scott, who delivered a cross after a corner.
75
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after James Justin concedes.
75
Corner Corner
Rayan from Bournemouth attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Karl Darlow of Leeds United. The assist was provided by Marcus Tavernier.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Amine Adli replaces Ryan Christie.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Tyler Adams replaces Junior Kroupi.
71
Corner Corner
Leeds United win a corner after James Hill concedes.
70
Update Update
Adrien Truffert from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
70
Update Update
Adrien Truffert from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
James Hill scores an own goal for Bournemouth. The match is now 1-1 against Leeds United.
68
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Nmecha's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
James Hill scores an own goal for Bournemouth. The match is now 1-1 against Leeds United.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Rayan comes on for David Brooks.
67
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Nmecha's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Brenden Aaronson provided the assist.
66
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United shot with his right foot from the center of the box.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Lukas Nmecha replaces Jaka Bijol.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Wilfried Gnonto replaces Noah Okafor.
62
Attempt Attempt
Noah Okafor from Leeds United hits the left post with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bournemouth leads 1-0 against Leeds United. Junior Kroupi scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by Marcos Senesi after a fast break.
59
Corner Corner
Bournemouth is awarded a corner after Gabriel Gudmundsson concedes.
57
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Christie from Bournemouth attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it is saved.
54
Corner Corner
Bournemouth is awarded a corner after Pascal Struijk concedes.
54
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Pascal Struijk concedes.
52
Update Update
Marcos Senesi of Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
52
Update Update
Dominic Calvert-Lewin fouled a Leeds United player.
51
Attempt Attempt
David Brooks from Bournemouth misses a chance with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
49
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Alex Scott from Bournemouth shot with his right foot from outside the box after a corner.
48
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Pascal Struijk concedes.
47
Update Update
Junior Kroupi from Bournemouth won a free kick in an attacking position.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Joe Rodon for Leeds United.
46
Attempt Attempt
Noah Okafor from Leeds United missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box. The assist was provided by Brenden Aaronson.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Bournemouth and Leeds United tied at 0-0.
45
Update Update
Adrien Truffert of Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Brenden Aaronson of Leeds United commits a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Bournemouth and Leeds United.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Joe Rodon replaces Jayden Bogle.
43
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Marcus Tavernier from Bournemouth shot with his right foot from the center of the box but missed.
43
Corner Corner
Bournemouth is awarded a corner after Jaka Bijol concedes.
43
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Christie from Bournemouth attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the six-yard box, but his shot is saved by Leeds United's goalkeeper Karl Darlow, positioned in the center of the goal. The assist came from Junior Kroupi.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Álex Jiménez from Bournemouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
41
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson from Leeds United won a free kick on the left wing.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Álex Jiménez of Bournemouth.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Truffert against Bournemouth.
38
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu of Leeds United won a free kick in defense.
37
Corner Corner
Brenden Aaronson of Leeds United attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but Djordje Petrovic of Bournemouth saves it in the right corner. The assist came from Ao Tanaka.
36
Corner Corner
Bournemouth is awarded a corner after Pascal Struijk concedes.
34
Attempt Attempt
David Brooks from Bournemouth has a shot from outside the box with his left foot, but it is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Adrien Truffert of Bournemouth takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Leeds United's goalkeeper, Karl Darlow, in the center of the goal.
32
Update Update
Offside called against Leeds United. Jayden Bogle is offside.
31
Update Update
Dominic Calvert-Lewin of Leeds United won a free kick in defense.
31
Update Update
Dominic Calvert-Lewin fouled a Leeds United player.
28
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Jaka Bijol concedes.
25
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu of Leeds United won a free kick in defense.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Junior Kroupi of Bournemouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
25
Update Update
Foul committed by Junior Kroupi for Bournemouth.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Jayden Bogle for Leeds United.
23
Update Update
Adrien Truffert of Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
16
Update Update
Evanilson's header from the right side of the six-yard box is blocked. The assist came from David Brooks, who delivered the cross.
16
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after James Justin concedes.
15
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Ethan Ampadu concedes.
12
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson of Leeds United won a free kick in defense.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Álex Jiménez of Bournemouth.
11
Update Update
Jayden Bogle fouled a Leeds United player.
11
Update Update
Adrien Truffert from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
10
Attempt Attempt
Evanilson had a missed chance for Bournemouth, shooting with his right foot from a difficult position on the right but missing to the left. Ryan Christie provided the assist with a header.
9
Update Update
Alex Scott from Bournemouth won a free kick in an attacking position.
9
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu of Leeds United commits a foul.
4
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Álex Jiménez from Bournemouth.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw between AFC Bournemouth and Leeds United highlights football's unpredictability, as Leeds United defied pre-match favoritism toward Bournemouth to claim a share of the spoils. Bournemouth's 60% possession did not translate into victory, underscoring Leeds' clinical second-half response. With no red cards or major disruptions, the result stems from pure on-pitch merit. This significant deviation challenges market assumptions and boosts Leeds' momentum as the stronger-rated side. Both teams demonstrated resilience, but the point apiece keeps their campaigns evenly poised.

AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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