AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Vitality Stadium Sun, 3 May - 1:00 PM
Premier League
AFC Bournemouth BOU
3 Winner 0
Crystal Palace CRY
Full Time Sun, 3 May 1:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Rayan - 77'
Eli Kroupi - 32' (P)
Jefferson Lerma - 10' (Own Goal)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

AFC Bournemouth delivered a dominant 3-0 home win against Crystal Palace, showcasing clinical finishing and defensive solidity. The Cherries raced to a 2-0 halftime lead, capitalizing on early opportunities despite possession splitting nearly evenly at 49% for Bournemouth and 51% for Palace. The second half saw Bournemouth extend their advantage with a third goal, maintaining control throughout without any red card incidents or notable tactical adjustments from either side. This outcome reflects a significant structural deviation of 39.9% in Bournemouth's favor, consistent with their status as the stronger team. Efficiency metrics for both squads remained in line with expectations, and the result aligned with pre-match market probabilities. Absent xG data limits precise chance quality evaluation, but Bournemouth's conversion rate clearly outpaced Palace's efforts. The clean sheet and multi-goal margin highlight Bournemouth's comprehensive superiority in this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match showed a significant 39.9% structural deviation favoring AFC Bournemouth.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams was in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remain unevaluated without provided data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Jones

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Davies

1st Assistant

M. Perry

2nd Assistant

J. Busby

4th Official

AFC Bournemouth A. Iraola
A. Iraola
VS
Crystal Palace O. Glasner
O. Glasner
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leeds United Rank: 87 D
Newcastle United Rank: 88 W
Arsenal Rank: 99 W
Manchester United Rank: 92 D
Burnley Rank: 77 D
Brentford Rank: 89 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Liverpool Rank: 91 L
West Ham United Rank: 83 D
Newcastle United Rank: 89 W
Leeds United Rank: 87 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 84 W
Manchester United Rank: 92 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 8 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AFC Bournemouth
60.08%
Draw
21.98%
Away Crystal Palace
17.94%

Movement

Changes since opening
AFC Bournemouth
-34.58%
Draw
+17.82%
Crystal Palace
+16.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.39
70.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AFC Bournemouth
Crystal Palace
Power Score
73.39
70.4
League Position
6
15
Global Rank
12
33

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AFC Bournemouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Crystal Palace — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AFC Bournemouth Crystal Palace

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AFC Bournemouth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Crystal Palace

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AFC Bournemouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Crystal Palace
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.86
17.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.55
37.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AFC Bournemouth +2.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Crystal Palace -2.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AFC Bournemouth
Crystal Palace
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AFC Bournemouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Crystal Palace
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AFC Bournemouth Crystal Palace
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AFC Bournemouth Crystal Palace
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AFC Bournemouth
Crystal Palace
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AFC Bournemouth
vs
Crystal Palace
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AFC Bournemouth Crystal Palace
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AFC Bournemouth 0.31
Crystal Palace 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AFC Bournemouth Crystal Palace
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AFC Bournemouth 0.00
Crystal Palace 0.06
AFC Bournemouth
Crystal Palace
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BOU had peak pressure around 13'.
  • BOU started the game with stronger pressure.
BOU Pressure CRY Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BOU reached the top pressure at 13' (91.32).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AFC Bournemouth BOU Home
18 matches
Crystal Palace CRY Away
Match Record
4
Wins
6
8
Draws
8
6
Losses
4
Goals
18
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
18
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:03:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
Đ. Petrović
Serbia
1 Đ. Petrović
A. Jiménez Sánchez
Spain
20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
J. Hill
England
23 J. Hill
M. Senesi
Argentina
5 M. Senesi
A. Truffert
France
3 A. Truffert
A. Scott
England
8 A. Scott
T. Adams
Substitution
United States
12 T. Adams
R. Rocha
Substitution
Brazil
37 R. Rocha
E. Kroupi
Substitution
France
22 E. Kroupi
M. Tavernier
Substitution
England
16 M. Tavernier
F. de Lima Barbosa
Substitution
Brazil
9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Pitch
D. Henderson
England
1 D. Henderson
C. Riad
Substitution
Morocco
34 C. Riad
M. Lacroix
France
5 M. Lacroix
J. Canvot
France
23 J. Canvot
J. Devenny
Scotland
55 J. Devenny
D. Kamada
Substitution
Japan
18 D. Kamada
J. Lerma Solís
Colombia
8 J. Lerma Solís
D. Muñoz Mejía
Substitution
Colombia
2 D. Muñoz Mejía
Y. Jesús Pino Santos
Substitution
Spain
10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
J. Strand Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 J. Strand Larsen
B. Johnson
Wales
11 B. Johnson

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Vitality Stadium
Capacity :
11700
Attendance :
11122
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Neil Davies
Marc Perry
John Busby
Robert Jones

Statistics

Possession
BOU
51%
CRY
49%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 1
51 Dangerous attacks 39
49 Possession 51
7 Corners 1
9 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

13 Successful Dribbles 5
16 Throwins 18
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
19 Successful Headers 15
24 Dribble Attempts 13
8 Goal Kicks 9
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 5
70 Ball Safe 73
0 Injuries 1
9 Goal Attempts 6
1 Assists 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

101 Attacks 86
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 78
17 Successful Long Passes 23
312 Successful Passes 309
48 Long Passes 66
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
382 Passes 398
10 Key Passes 6

Defensive

7 Interceptions 4
17 Tackles 22
61 Duels Won 52
1 Saves 3

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 11
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Robert Jones

Starting XI ▼

1
Djordje Petrovic
Djordje Petrovic Goalkeeper
6.78
3
Adrien Truffert
Adrien Truffert Defender
6.82
5
Marcos Senesi
Marcos Senesi Defender
7.04
20
Álex Jiménez
Álex Jiménez Defender
6.72
23
James Hill
James Hill Defender
6.93
8
Alex Scott
Alex Scott Midfielder
7
12
Tyler Adams
Tyler Adams Midfielder
6.79
10
Ryan Christie
Ryan Christie
Midfielder69'
6.69
16
Marcus Tavernier
Marcus Tavernier Midfielder
6.92
11
Ben Gannon-Doak
Ben Gannon-Doak
Attacker86'
6.6
22
Eli Kroupi
Eli Kroupi Midfielder
6.86
7
David Brooks
David Brooks
Midfielder70'
6.71
37
Rayan
Rayan Midfielder
6.96
21
Amine Adli
Amine Adli
Attacker86'
6.78
9
Evanilson
Evanilson Attacker
6.8
26
Enes Ünal
Enes Ünal
Attacker80'
6.52
Referee : Robert Jones

Starting XI ▼

1
Dean Henderson
Dean Henderson Goalkeeper
6.84
5
Maxence Lacroix
Maxence Lacroix Defender
6.98
23
Jaydee Canvot
Jaydee Canvot Defender
6.88
34
Chadi Riad
Chadi Riad Defender
6.67
26
Chris Richards
Chris Richards
Defender76'
6.85
2
Daniel Muñoz
Daniel Muñoz Midfielder
7.02
3
Tyrick Mitchell
Tyrick Mitchell
Defender46'
6.83
8
Jefferson Lerma
Jefferson Lerma Midfielder
6.75
18
Daichi Kamada
Daichi Kamada Midfielder
6.84
20
Adam Wharton
Adam Wharton
Midfielder46'
6.97
55
Justin Devenny
Justin Devenny Midfielder
6.48
10
Yéremy Pino
Yéremy Pino Attacker
6.88
7
Ismaïla Sarr
Ismaïla Sarr
Attacker46'
6.9
11
Brennan Johnson
Brennan Johnson Attacker
6.64
22
Jørgen Strand Larsen
Jørgen Strand Larsen Attacker
6.77
14
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Attacker65'
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Amine Adli → Rayan
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Ben Gannon-Doak → Marcus Tavernier
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Enes Ünal → Evanilson
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Rayan
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
77'
76'
Event
Chris Richards → Chadi Riad
7th Substitution
Event
David Brooks → Eli Kroupi
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Ryan Christie → Tyler Adams
5th Substitution
69'
65'
Event
Jean-Philippe Mateta → Jørgen Strand Larsen
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Tyrick Mitchell → Daniel Muñoz
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Ismaïla Sarr → Yéremy Pino
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Adam Wharton → Daichi Kamada
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Maxence Lacroix
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Eli Kroupi
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
32'
Event
Jefferson Lerma
Header / 1st Own Goal
10'
6'
Event
Jaydee Canvot
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Enes Unal's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ismaila Sarr takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Jimenez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Ismaila Sarr takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
86
Update Update
Ben Doak replaces Marcus Tavernier.
86
Update Update
Amine Adli replaces Rayan Vitor.
84
Attempt Attempt
Brennan Johnson's right-footed shot is blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Jean Philippe Mateta attempts a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Update Update
Enes Unal is on, and Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa is off.
79
Attempt Attempt
David Brooks takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
77
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Vitor scores with a right-footed shot.
76
Substitution Substitution
Chris Richards is substituted on for Chadi Riad.
70
Update Update
David Brooks is on, and Eli Junior Kroupi is off.
70
Update Update
Ryan Christie replaces Tyler Adams.
65
Substitution Substitution
Jean Philippe Mateta is substituted for Jorgen Strand Larsen.
64
Attempt Attempt
Brennan Johnson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Eli Junior Kroupi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Jorgen Strand Larsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Vitor's header shot misses the target.
46
Update Update
Tyrick Mitchell comes on for Daniel Munoz.
46
Update Update
Adam Wharton comes on for Daichi Kamada.
46
Update Update
Ismaila Sarr is on, and Yeremi Pino is off.
46
Attempt Attempt
Jorgen Strand Larsen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Vitor's header shot misses the target.
39
Attempt Attempt
Alex Scott takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maxence Lacroix receives a yellow card.
32
Attempt Attempt
Eli Junior Kroupi takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
31
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Eli Junior Kroupi scores, making it 2-0.
27
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Tavernier takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Vitor takes a header but misses the shot.
14
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Eli Junior Kroupi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
10
Update Update
Goal! Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa scores, making it 1-0.
10
Update Update
Own goal! Jefferson Andres Lerma Solis scores, making it 1-0.
10
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa attempts a header but misses the shot.
9
Attempt Attempt
Eli Junior Kroupi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Vitor takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
6
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jaydee Canvot receives a yellow card.

CONCLUSION

AFC Bournemouth's 3-0 triumph over Crystal Palace underscores their home strength and efficiency, converting balanced possession into a decisive victory. The 2-0 halftime edge set a commanding tone, with the second-half goal cementing dominance absent any disruptions like red cards. This significant 39.9% structural deviation aligns with Bournemouth's favored status, while efficiency stayed normative and market expectations held. Without xG details, shot quality insights are incomplete, yet the result affirms Bournemouth's control and Palace's struggles. This performance bolsters Bournemouth's campaign momentum.

AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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