AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza Sun, 10 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
AC Milan MIL
2 Winner 3
Atalanta ATA
Full Time Sun, 10 May 6:45 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Christopher Nkunku - 90+4' (P)
Strahinja Pavlović - 88'
Goal
|
Goal
Giacomo Raspadori - 51'
Davide Zappacosta - 29'

CONTEXT

AC Milan faced Atalanta in a high-stakes Serie A clash at San Siro, culminating in a 2-3 defeat for the hosts. Atalanta surged ahead with a 2-0 halftime lead, capitalizing on early opportunities while Milan, holding 57% possession, failed to score before the break. The second half saw Milan rally with two goals, narrowing the gap, but Atalanta's defense and counter-attacks held firm for the victory. Pre-identified as the stronger side, Atalanta overcame Milan's home advantage and possession dominance. This result reflects Atalanta's clinical edge against Milan's profligacy, with no red cards or major disruptions altering the flow. The away win disrupts expectations, emphasizing Atalanta's efficiency in converting limited possession into points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Atalanta's win marked a significant structural deviation of 71.3% from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Pre-match market projections did not align with Atalanta's victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Zufferli

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Rossi

2nd Assistant

Italy

F. Fourneau

4th Official

Italy

P. Dei Giudici

1st Assistant

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.6
Yellow cards / match 3.28
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.18
AC Milan M. Allegri
M. Allegri
VS
Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: 75 L
Juventus Rank: 85 D
Hellas Verona Rank: 63 W
Udinese Rank: 77 L
Napoli Rank: 86 L
Torino Rank: 75 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genoa Rank: 74 D
Cagliari Rank: 69 L
Roma Rank: 83 D
Juventus Rank: 86 L
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 10 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AC Milan
42.58%
Draw
28.7%
Away Atalanta
28.72%

Movement

Changes since opening
AC Milan
+42.39%
Draw
+24.12%
Atalanta
-66.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.64
84.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AC Milan
Atalanta
Power Score
83.64
84.97
League Position
4
7
Global Rank
42
37

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AC Milan — Opponent-weighted form score
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AC Milan Atalanta

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AC Milan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Atalanta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AC Milan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atalanta
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.47
23.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.95
39.47
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AC Milan +1.57 Efficiency Index
vs
Atalanta -1.57 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AC Milan
Atalanta
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AC Milan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atalanta
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AC Milan Atalanta
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AC Milan Atalanta
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AC Milan
Atalanta
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AC Milan
vs
Atalanta
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AC Milan Atalanta
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AC Milan 0.40
Atalanta 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AC Milan Atalanta
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AC Milan 0.12
Atalanta 0.04
AC Milan
Atalanta
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MIL had peak pressure around 92'.
  • ATA started the game with stronger pressure.
MIL Pressure ATA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MIL reached the top pressure at 92' (86.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AC Milan MIL Home
38 matches
Atalanta ATA Away
Match Record
14
Wins
14
10
Draws
10
14
Losses
14
Goals
48
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
48
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:06:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Maignan
France
16 M. Maignan
K. De Winter
Substitution
Belgium
5 K. De Winter
M. Gabbia
Italy
46 M. Gabbia
S. Pavlović
Serbia
31 S. Pavlović
A. Saelemaekers
Belgium
56 A. Saelemaekers
R. Loftus-Cheek
Substitution
England
8 R. Loftus-Cheek
S. Ricci
Italy
4 S. Ricci
A. Rabiot
France
12 A. Rabiot
D. Bartesaghi
Substitution
Italy
33 D. Bartesaghi
S. Giménez
Substitution
Mexico
7 S. Giménez
R. Conceição Leão
Substitution
Portugal
10 R. Conceição Leão
Pitch
M. Carnesecchi
Italy
29 M. Carnesecchi
S. Kolašinac
Bosnia and Herzegovina
23 S. Kolašinac
I. Hien
Sweden
4 I. Hien
G. Scalvini
Substitution
Italy
42 G. Scalvini
N. Zalewski
Poland
59 N. Zalewski
É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
Brazil
13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
M. de Roon
Netherlands
15 M. de Roon
D. Zappacosta
Substitution
Italy
77 D. Zappacosta
G. Raspadori
Italy
18 G. Raspadori
C. De Ketelaere
Substitution
Belgium
17 C. De Ketelaere
N. Krstović
Montenegro
90 N. Krstović

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Capacity :
75817
Attendance :
73498
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Luca Zufferli
Christian Rossi
Francesco Fourneau
Pietro Dei Giudici

Statistics

Possession
MIL
57%
ATA
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 2
50 Dangerous attacks 26
57 Possession 43
2 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 8
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

18 Dribble Attempts 5
2 Hit Woodwork 0
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
18 Throwins 13
3 Goal Kicks 16
9 Successful Headers 7
7 Successful Dribbles 2
1 Assists 2
76 Ball Safe 70
1 Injuries 3
12 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 4
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

135 Attacks 72
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 80
17 Key Passes 8
34 Long Passes 54
478 Successful Passes 330
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28
20 Successful Long Passes 15
542 Passes 411

Defensive

13 Tackles 16
2 Saves 8
5 Interceptions 12
46 Duels Won 33

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 1
13 Total Crosses 3

Discipline

8 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Luca Zufferli

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
5
Koni De Winter
Koni De Winter Defender
24
Zachary Athekame
Zachary Athekame
Defender58'
31
Strahinja Pavlović
Strahinja Pavlović Defender
46
Matteo Gabbia
Matteo Gabbia Defender
4
Samuele Ricci
Samuele Ricci Midfielder
8
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
Ruben Loftus-Cheek Midfielder
18
Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku
Attacker46'
12
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder
33
Davide Bartesaghi
Davide Bartesaghi Midfielder
2
Pervis Estupiñán
Pervis Estupiñán
Defender80'
56
Alexis Saelemaekers
Alexis Saelemaekers Midfielder
7
Santiago Gimenez
Santiago Gimenez Attacker
9
Niclas Füllkrug
Niclas Füllkrug
Attacker58'
10
Rafael Leão
Rafael Leão Attacker
19
Youssouf Fofana
Youssouf Fofana
Midfielder58'
Referee : Luca Zufferli

Starting XI ▼

29
Marco Carnesecchi
Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper
4
Isak Hien
Isak Hien Defender
23
Sead Kolasinac
Sead Kolasinac Defender
42
Giorgio Scalvini
Giorgio Scalvini Defender
3
Odilon Kossounou
Odilon Kossounou
Defender48'
13
Éderson
Éderson Midfielder
15
Marten de Roon
Marten de Roon Midfielder
59
Nicola Zalewski
Nicola Zalewski Midfielder
77
Davide Zappacosta
Davide Zappacosta Midfielder
16
Raoul Bellanova
Raoul Bellanova
Defender55'
17
Charles De Ketelaere
Charles De Ketelaere Attacker
8
Mario Pašalić
Mario Pašalić
Midfielder63'
18
Giacomo Raspadori
Giacomo Raspadori Attacker
90
Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Raoul Bellanova
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Nikola Krstović
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Christopher Nkunku
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+4'
Event
Alexis Saelemaekers
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Pervis Estupiñán
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Adrien Rabiot
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Strahinja Pavlović
Header / 4th Goal
88'
Event
Pervis Estupiñán → Davide Bartesaghi
9th Substitution
80'
70'
Event
Isak Hien
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Honest Ahanor → Odilon Kossounou
7th Substitution
63'
Event
Mario Pašalić → Charles De Ketelaere
8th Substitution
Event
Youssouf Fofana → Rafael Leão
5th Substitution
58'
Event
Zachary Athekame → Koni De Winter
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Niclas Füllkrug → Santiago Gimenez
6th Substitution
58'
55'
Event
Raoul Bellanova → Davide Zappacosta
3rd Substitution
51'
Event
Giacomo Raspadori
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
48'
Event
Odilon Kossounou → Giorgio Scalvini
2nd Substitution
Event
Christopher Nkunku → Ruben Loftus-Cheek 
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Rafael Leão
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
34'
29'
Event
Davide Zappacosta
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
7'
Event
Éderson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Raoul Bellanova receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Gabbia attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Pervis Josue Estupinan Tenorio.
90
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Raspadori takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nikola Krstovic receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alexis Saelemaekers receives a yellow card.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Christopher Nkunku scores, making it 2 penalties for his team and 3 for the opponents.
90
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Nkunku takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Starhinja Pavlovic scores, making it 1-3, assisted by Samuele Ricci.
88
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal by Starhinja Pavlovic, and it's a goal!
86
Attempt Attempt
Adrien Rabiot takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Athekame takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Starhinja Pavlovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
80
Attempt Attempt
Adrien Rabiot takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Update Update
Pervis Josue Estupinan Tenorio comes on for Davide Bartesaghi.
75
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Nkunku takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Isak Hien receives a yellow card.
69
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Krstovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Youssouf Fofana's right-footed shot is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Nkunku takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Nkunku takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Krstovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
63
Update Update
Mario Pasalic comes on for Charles De Ketelaere.
63
Update Update
Honest Ahanor replaces Odilon Kossounou.
61
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Nkunku takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Substitution Substitution
Zachary Athekame is substituted off for Koni De Winter.
58
Update Update
Youssouf Fofana comes on for Rafael Leao.
58
Update Update
Niclas Fullkrug comes on for Santiago Gimenez.
56
Attempt Attempt
Rafael Leao takes a left-footed shot but misses.
55
Update Update
Raoul Bellanova comes on for Davide Zappacosta.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Giacomo Raspadori scores, making it 3-0, assisted by Ederson Jose dos Santos Lourenco.
51
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Raspadori takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
48
Update Update
Odilon Kossounou replaces Giorgio Scalvini.
46
Update Update
Christopher Nkunku replaces Ruben Loftus-Cheek.
46
Attempt Attempt
Rafael Leao takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Alexis Saelemaekers takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Adrien Rabiot takes a left-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Rafael Leao takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rafael Leao receives a yellow card.
34
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Gimenez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Davide Zappacosta scores to make it 0-2, assisted by Nikola Krstovic.
29
Attempt Attempt
Davide Zappacosta scores with a left-footed shot.
17
Attempt Attempt
Nicola Zalewski takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Krstovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Raspadori takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ederson Jose dos Santos Lourenco scores, making it 0-1.
7
Attempt Attempt
Ederson Jose dos Santos Lourenco takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
4
Attempt Attempt
Adrien Rabiot takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
1
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Gimenez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Atalanta's 2-3 victory at AC Milan validates their status as the stronger team, defying home possession dominance with superior finishing. Milan's second-half response fell short, exposing vulnerabilities despite 57% ball control. This significant deviation from projections boosts Atalanta's momentum in the league race while challenging Milan's consistency. Without red cards or disruptions, the result hinges on Atalanta's efficiency, underscoring football's unpredictability and rewarding clinical play over mere territorial advantage.

AC Milan vs Atalanta preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Serie A, Italy View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Dan A

Dan A creates clear football match previews built around team form, performance trends, and practical pre-match insights.