Aberdeen vs St. Mirren Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Pittodrie Stadium Tue, 12 May - 6:45 PM
Premiership
Aberdeen ABE
0 Winner 2
St. Mirren STM
Full Time Tue, 12 May 6:45 PM
Round 37 2nd Phase
|
Goal
Killian Phillips - 80'
Richard King - 42'

CONTEXT

In a shocking upset at Pittodrie, St. Mirren stunned stronger favorites Aberdeen with a 0-2 victory. The visitors struck first in the opening half, leading 0-1 at halftime despite Aberdeen controlling 58% possession. The Dons pushed hard after the break but squandered opportunities, unable to breach a resolute St. Mirren defense. The away side doubled their advantage late on, showcasing clinical finishing amid Aberdeen's dominance in territory. No red cards marred the contest, allowing a fluid match that highlighted St. Mirren's efficiency against the hosts' wastefulness. This result marks a minimal deviation outcome, with the market aligning closely to the final scoreline. Aberdeen's failure to capitalize on superior ball control proved costly, extending their winless run while boosting St. Mirren's campaign.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: St. Mirren's win exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.1%.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment verification with outcome.
  • Market alignment: Final result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Lack of xG figures left expectations unassessable.
  • Event impact: No significant events or adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Dickinson

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Stewart

1st Assistant

Scotland

C. Rae

2nd Assistant

Scotland

D. McFarlane

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.91
Yellow cards / match 3.39
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.21
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
VS
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.8
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: 62 W
Livingston Rank: 55 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 W
Hibernian Rank: 69 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 L
Rangers Rank: 76 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: 58 L
Dundee Rank: 58 L
Livingston Rank: 53 L
Celtic Rank: 79 L
Aberdeen Rank: 59 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
24
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
24 - 18 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aberdeen
0.2%
Draw
1.92%
Away St. Mirren
97.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.87
57.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aberdeen
St. Mirren
Power Score
58.87
57.03
League Position
8
10
Global Rank
539
589

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aberdeen St. Mirren

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

St. Mirren

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aberdeen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Mirren
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.28
26.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.67
18.28
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aberdeen -0.81 Efficiency Index
vs
St. Mirren +0.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aberdeen
St. Mirren
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aberdeen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Mirren
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aberdeen St. Mirren
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aberdeen St. Mirren
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Aberdeen
St. Mirren
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Aberdeen
vs
St. Mirren
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Aberdeen St. Mirren
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Aberdeen 0.15
St. Mirren 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Aberdeen St. Mirren
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Aberdeen 0.05
St. Mirren 0.00
Aberdeen
St. Mirren
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STM had peak pressure around 44'.
  • STM started the game with stronger pressure.
ABE Pressure STM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STM reached the top pressure at 44' (54.22).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 58 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aberdeen ABE Home
58 matches
St. Mirren STM Away
Match Record
24
Wins
16
18
Draws
18
16
Losses
24
Goals
81
Goals Scored
58
58
Goals Conceded
81
+23
Goal Difference
-23

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:02:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
P. Worre Bråtveit
Norway
99 P. Worre Bråtveit
L. Morrison
Substitution
Scotland
23 L. Morrison
M. Knoester
Netherlands
5 M. Knoester
G. Molloy
Republic of Ireland
21 G. Molloy
N. Devlin
Substitution
Scotland
2 N. Devlin
A. Aremu
Substitution
Nigeria
32 A. Aremu
A. Palaversa
Croatia
18 A. Palaversa
M. Frame
Scotland
3 M. Frame
D. Geiger
Substitution
Germany
8 D. Geiger
T. Olusanya
England
20 T. Olusanya
K. Nisbet
Substitution
Scotland
15 K. Nisbet
Pitch
R. Sinclair
Scotland
27 R. Sinclair
M. Fraser
Scotland
22 M. Fraser
A. Gogić
Cyprus
13 A. Gogić
L. Donnelly
Northern Ireland
4 L. Donnelly
M. O'Hara
Scotland
6 M. O'Hara
M. Freckleton
England
21 M. Freckleton
J. Devaney
England
8 J. Devaney
A. Campbell
Scotland
16 A. Campbell
R. King
Jamaica
5 R. King
M. Mandron
France
9 M. Mandron
K. Phillips
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
88 K. Phillips

General Information

Date & Time :
May 12, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 37 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Pittodrie Stadium
Capacity :
20866
Attendance :
16138
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
David Dickinson
Graeme Stewart
Chris Rae
Dan McFarlane

Statistics

Possession
ABE
54%
STM
46%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 3
52 Dangerous attacks 44
58 Possession 42
6 Corners 1
11 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

24 Throwins 20
12 Dribble Attempts 11
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
3 Goal Kicks 6
3 Successful Dribbles 6
3 Goal Attempts 8
85 Ball Safe 84
0 Assists 2
4 Substitutions 1
1 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

106 Attacks 106

Possession

549 Passes 404
429 Successful Passes 289
78 Successful Passes Percentage 72
75 Long Passes 88
6 Key Passes 6
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
25 Successful Long Passes 34

Defensive

52 Duels Won 52
12 Tackles 14
12 Interceptions 12
3 Saves 1

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 17
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

14 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

99
Per Kristian Bråtveit
Per Kristian Bråtveit Goalkeeper
5
Mats Knoester
Mats Knoester Defender
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Defender
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Defender
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne
Defender46'
2
Nicky Devlin
Nicky Devlin Midfielder
38
Dylan Lobban
Dylan Lobban
Midfielder68'
3
Mitchel Frame
Mitchel Frame Midfielder
18
Ante Palaversa
Ante Palaversa Midfielder
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu Midfielder
25
Lyall Cameron
Lyall Cameron
Midfielder46'
8
Dennis Geiger
Dennis Geiger Attacker
4
Graeme Shinnie
Graeme Shinnie
Midfielder80'
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet Attacker
81
Topi Keskinen
Topi Keskinen
Attacker68'
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya Attacker
Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

27
R. Sinclair
R. Sinclair Goalkeeper
4
Liam Donnelly
Liam Donnelly Defender
13
Alex Gogic
Alex Gogic Defender
22
Marcus Fraser
Marcus Fraser Defender
5
Richard King
Richard King Midfielder
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara Midfielder
8
Jacob Devaney
Jacob Devaney Midfielder
16
Allan Campbell
Allan Campbell Midfielder
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Midfielder
9
Mikael Mandron
Mikael Mandron Attacker
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Attacker
32
Luke Douglas
Luke Douglas
Attacker90+2'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Luke Douglas → Killian Phillips
6th Substitution
Event
Graeme Shinnie  → Dennis Geiger
5th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Killian Phillips
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Dennis Geiger
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
79'
75'
Event
Jacob Devaney
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Topi Keskinen → Kevin Nisbet
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Dylan Lobban → Nicky Devlin 
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Steve Robinson
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Jack Milne → Liam Morrison
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Lyall Cameron → Afeez Aremu
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Richard King
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
16'
Event
Marcus Fraser
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Killian Phillips scores for St Mirren at the 80th minute.
80
Substitution Substitution
Graeme Shinnie is substituted for Aberdeen in the 80th minute.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dennis Geiger from Aberdeen receives a yellow card in the 79th minute.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jacob Devaney from St Mirren receives a yellow card in the 75th minute.
68
Substitution Substitution
Dylan Lobban is substituted for Aberdeen in the 68th minute.
68
Substitution Substitution
Topi Keskinen is substituted for Aberdeen in the 68th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Lyall Cameron is substituted for Aberdeen in the 45th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Jack Milne is substituted for Aberdeen in the 45th minute.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Richard King scores for St Mirren at the 42nd minute.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marcus Fraser of St Mirren receives a yellow card in the 16th minute.

CONCLUSION

St. Mirren's disciplined display and sharp counter-attacks earned a deserved 0-2 triumph over possession-heavy Aberdeen, flipping the script on the stronger home side's favoritism. With 42% possession, the Saints maximized every chance, contrasting Aberdeen's blunt attack despite 58% control. Halftime lead at 0-1 set the tone, and a second goal cemented control without disruptions. This minimal deviation victory underscores tactical nous over raw dominance, propelling St. Mirren up the table while exposing Aberdeen's conversion woes. Fans depart Pittodrie stunned, pondering what might have been in a match of fine margins.

Aberdeen vs St. Mirren preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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