Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland

Pittodrie Stadium Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM

Premiership

Aberdeen ABE

Kilmarnock KIL

Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 2:00 PM

Round 34 2nd Phase

Afeez Aremu - 1'

CONTEXT

Aberdeen secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Kilmarnock at home, striking first in the opening half to lead 1-0 at halftime and holding firm thereafter. Despite enjoying only 41% possession against Kilmarnock's 59%, the Dons demonstrated clinical finishing and resolute defending to defy expectations. Kilmarnock, considered the stronger side pre-match, dominated the ball but failed to convert chances, leaving Aberdeen's backline unbreached. The minimal structural deviation of 3.9% underscored a result closely aligned with underlying patterns, with no red cards or major disruptions altering the flow. Efficiency stayed in line with norms, and the outcome matched market alignments despite the possession disparity. Aberdeen's opportunistic approach proved decisive, capitalizing on their limited control to grind out three points in a tightly contested affair.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Aberdeen's 1-0 win exhibited minimal structural deviation of 3.9%.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Match outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without available metrics.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events significantly impacted proceedings.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary actions.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

N. Walsh

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Connor

1st Assistant

D. McFarlane

2nd Assistant

S. Murdoch

4th Official

S. Robinson

N. McCann

1.04

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.72

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

38 - 12 - 17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Aberdeen

96.07%

Draw

3.73%

Kilmarnock

0.19%

Team Power Ranking

15.18

19.66

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Aberdeen

Kilmarnock

Power Score

15.18

19.66

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score

Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aberdeen Kilmarnock

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Kilmarnock

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aberdeen ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Kilmarnock

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

31.34

25.76

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

25.76

31.34

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Aberdeen +0.54 Efficiency Index

Kilmarnock -0.54 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Aberdeen

Kilmarnock

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aberdeen ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Kilmarnock

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Aberdeen Kilmarnock

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Aberdeen Kilmarnock

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Aberdeen

Kilmarnock

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Aberdeen

Kilmarnock

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Aberdeen Kilmarnock

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Aberdeen Kilmarnock

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Aberdeen

Kilmarnock

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

ABE had peak pressure around 82'.
ABE started the game with stronger pressure.

ABE Pressure KIL Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: ABE reached the top pressure at 82' (59.31).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 67 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aberdeen ABE Home

67 matches

Kilmarnock KIL Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+36

Goal Difference

-36

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:05:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2

Match Formation 4-4-2

1 D. Mitov

22 J. Milne

23 L. Morrison

21 G. Molloy

28 A. Jensen

32 A. Aremu

16 S. Armstrong

3 M. Frame

25 L. Cameron

20 T. Olusanya

15 K. Nisbet

1 M. Stryjek

21 M. Schjonning-Larsen

6 R. Deas

14 G. Stanger

2 J. Brandon

11 G. Kiltie

36 A. Tshibola

18 T. Lowery

52 F. Curtis

44 J. Hugill

20 N. Serghei Clescenco

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 34 · 2nd Phase

Stadium :

Pittodrie Stadium

Capacity :

20866

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

N. Walsh

Frank Connor

Daniel McFarlane

S. Murdoch

Statistics

Possession

ABE

41%

KIL

59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

2 Big Chances Created 0

10 Shots 11

57 Dangerous attacks 84

41 Possession 59

6 Corners 5

16 Free kicks 16

1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

6 Substitutions 3

4 Dribble Attempts 7

25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 86

24 Throwins 30

6 Goal Kicks 6

1 Successful Dribbles 6

66 Ball Safe 77

1 Injuries 1

1 Hit Woodwork 2

Attacking

78 Attacks 110

2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

206 Successful Passes 321

302 Passes 428

26 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

13 Successful Long Passes 30

7 Key Passes 7

50 Long Passes 75

68 Successful Passes Percentage 75

Defensive

44 Duels Won 51

8 Interceptions 5

15 Tackles 12

3 Saves 3

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 30

6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

16 Fouls 16

1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : N. Walsh

Manager ▼

S. Robinson Coach

Starting XI ▼

Dimitar Mitov Goalkeeper

6.82

Gavin Molloy Defender

6.72

Jack Milne Defender

6.73

Elvis Bwomono

Defender81'

6.44

Liam Morrison Defender

6.54

Mitchel Frame Midfielder

6.72

Graeme Shinnie

Midfielder58'

6.71

Stuart Armstrong Midfielder

6.96

Mats Knoester

Defender72'

6.87

Alexander Jensen Midfielder

6.69

Afeez Aremu Midfielder

6.81

Ante Palaversa

Midfielder72'

6.61

Kevin Nisbet Attacker

6.86

Toyosi Olusanya Attacker

6.56

Topi Keskinen

Attacker87'

6.72

Lyall Cameron Attacker

6.58

Dennis Geiger

Midfielder59'

6.63

Substitutes ▼

Graeme Shinnie

Midfielder58'

6.71

Dennis Geiger

Midfielder59'

6.63

Mats Knoester

Defender72'

6.87

Ante Palaversa

Midfielder72'

6.61

Elvis Bwomono

Defender81'

6.44

Topi Keskinen

Attacker87'

6.72

Bench ▼

Per Kristian Bråtveit Goalkeeper

6.95

Dylan Lobban Midfielder

6.55

Marko Lazetić Attacker

6.58

Referee : N. Walsh