Aberdeen vs Falkirk Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland

Pittodrie Stadium Sat, 14 Mar - 3:00 PM

Premiership

Aberdeen ABE

1 – 1

Falkirk Falkirk

Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 3:00 PM

Kevin Nisbet - 73'

Barney Stewart - 89'

CONTEXT

The match between Aberdeen and Falkirk has finished in a 1-1 draw. After a tightly contested first half that ended completely scoreless, both teams managed to find the back of the net in the second period, ultimately sharing the points. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating Falkirk, who entered the contest as the stronger team. The pre-match market gave the visitors a 39.8% chance of victory, compared to Aberdeen's 32.1% and a 28.2% probability for a draw. Consequently, the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match market forecasts. On the pitch, Falkirk controlled the tempo, holding 58% of the possession compared to Aberdeen's 42%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the 1-1 draw aligned with the underlying chances created by either side. However, the overall efficiency shift was recorded as being in line with standard play. The match concluded cleanly with zero red cards issued to either team, ensuring that disciplinary issues did not artificially impact the closely fought result.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Falkirk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

C. Scott

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Potter

1st Assistant

S. Anderson

2nd Assistant

D. Graves

4th Official

Peter Leven

J. McGlynn

1.42

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.52

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

10 - 3 - 5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Aberdeen

32.07%

Draw

28.17%

Falkirk

39.76%

Team Power Ranking

56.84

59.79

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Aberdeen

Falkirk

Power Score

56.84

59.79

League Position

Global Rank

551

293

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score

Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aberdeen Falkirk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Falkirk

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aberdeen ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Falkirk

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

25.24

17.67

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

17.67

25.24

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Aberdeen +0.73 Efficiency Index

Falkirk -0.73 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Aberdeen

Falkirk

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aberdeen

Falkirk

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Aberdeen Falkirk

Set-piece xG Share

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

+0.00 vs +0.00

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Aberdeen Falkirk

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

Aberdeen

Falkirk

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aberdeen ABE Home

2 matches

Falkirk Falkirk Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-2

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:02:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 D. Mitov

22 J. Milne

23 L. Morrison

21 G. Molloy

38 D. Lobban

16 S. Armstrong

4 (C) G. Shinnie

8 D. Geiger

3 M. Frame

15 K. Nisbet

27 M. Lazetić

19 S. Bain

3 L. McCann

5 L. Henderson

6 (C) C. Donaldson

28 F. Lissah

21 D. Tait

8 B. Spencer

29 C. Miller

14 F. Yeats

11 B. Broggio

16 B. Stewart

General Information

Date & Time :

Mar 14, 2026, 03:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland

Stadium :

Pittodrie Stadium

Capacity :

20866

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Calum Scott

Dougie Potter

Scott Robert Anderson

Daniel Graves

Statistics

Possession

ABE

44%

Falkirk

56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

4 Big Chances Created 0

3 Shots 4

32 Dangerous attacks 65

42 Possession 58

4 Corners 10

6 Free kicks 17

1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

4 Successful Dribbles 5

29 Successful Headers 20

11 Dribble Attempts 10

8 Goal Kicks 7

31 Throwins 29

83 Ball Safe 69

36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

5 Substitutions 4

0 Injuries 1

0 Assists 1

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 0

112 Attacks 121

Possession

6 Key Passes 5

20 Successful Long Passes 38

27 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

74 Long Passes 85

219 Successful Passes 330

63 Successful Passes Percentage 71

345 Passes 465

Defensive

2 Saves 2

14 Interceptions 8

15 Tackles 13

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 24

3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

17 Fouls 6

1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Calum Scott

Manager ▼

Peter Leven Coach

Starting XI ▼

Dimitar Mitov Goalkeeper

6.4

Gavin Molloy Defender

6.66

Jack Milne Defender

6.62

Liam Morrison Defender

7.06

Mitchel Frame Midfielder

6.69

Alexander Jensen

Midfielder81'

6.27

Graeme Shinnie (C) Midfielder

6.72

Ante Palaversa

Midfielder61'

6.26

Dennis Geiger Midfielder

6.7

Sivert Heltne Nilsen

Midfielder84'

6.48

Stuart Armstrong Midfielder

7.24

Lyall Cameron

Midfielder61'

6.43

Dylan Lobban Midfielder

7.1

Kevin Nisbet Attacker

6.99

Marko Lazetić Attacker

6.45

Toyosi Olusanya

Attacker61'

6.28

Substitutes ▼

Ante Palaversa

Midfielder61'

6.26

Toyosi Olusanya

Attacker61'

6.28

Lyall Cameron

Midfielder61'

6.43

Alexander Jensen

Midfielder81'

6.27

Sivert Heltne Nilsen

Midfielder84'

6.48

Bench ▼

Per Kristian Bråtveit Goalkeeper

Kenan Bilalovic Midfielder

Afeez Aremu Midfielder

Topi Keskinen Attacker

Referee : Calum Scott