Aalesund vs Kristiansund Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Color Line Stadion Sun, 26 Apr - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Aalesund Aalesund
1 – 1
Kristiansund Kristiansund
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 6 Regular Season
Kristian Lonebu - 83'
Goal
|
Goal
W. Igor - 62'

CONTEXT

Aalesund and Kristiansund delivered a 1-1 draw in their Norwegian league clash, with the halftime score locked at 0-0. Aalesund dominated possession at 55% but struggled to convert chances into goals, mirroring Kristiansund's defensive solidity despite holding 45%. The second half produced identical single strikes from each side, preserving equilibrium. Pre-match assessments positioned Aalesund as favorites at 52.4% probability, yet the outcome marked a significant 76.6% structural deviation benefiting Kristiansund, deemed the stronger team. No red cards or major disruptions occurred, and efficiency metrics aligned with expectations. This result underscores Kristiansund's resilience away, denying Aalesund a home victory despite territorial control.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The draw represented a significant 76.6% structural deviation favoring Kristiansund.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevented alignment evaluation with the outcome.
  • Market alignment: Pre-match market probabilities did not align with the 1-1 draw.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered the match's progression.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Nilsen

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Olav Dale

1st Assistant

E. Hareland

2nd Assistant

D. Refsnes

4th Official

Aalesund K. Rekdal
K. Rekdal
VS
Kristiansund A. Robertsen Skiri
A. Robertsen Skiri
0.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.11
0.4 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bodø / Glimt Rank: L
KFUM Rank: D
Fredrikstad Rank: L
Start Rank: D
Lillestrøm Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fredrikstad Rank: W
Tromsø Rank: L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: L
Brann Rank: W
Tromsø Rank: L
Vålerenga Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aalesund
52.44%
Draw
23.4%
Away Kristiansund
24.16%

Movement

Changes since opening
Aalesund
+46.93%
Draw
-67.49%
Kristiansund
+20.56%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
10.74
17.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aalesund
Kristiansund
Power Score
10.74
17.69
League Position
16
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aalesund — Opponent-weighted form score
Kristiansund — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aalesund Kristiansund

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aalesund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kristiansund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aalesund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kristiansund
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.09
27.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.33
42.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aalesund +1.51 Efficiency Index
vs
Kristiansund -1.51 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aalesund
Kristiansund
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aalesund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kristiansund
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aalesund Kristiansund
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aalesund Kristiansund
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Aalesund
Kristiansund
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Aalesund
vs
Kristiansund
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Aalesund Kristiansund
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Aalesund 0.32
Kristiansund 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Aalesund Kristiansund
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Aalesund 0.04
Kristiansund 0.02
Aalesund
Kristiansund
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Aalesund had peak pressure around 32'.
  • Aalesund started the game with stronger pressure.
Aalesund Pressure Kristiansund Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Aalesund reached the top pressure at 32' (95.56).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aalesund Aalesund Home
6 matches
Kristiansund Kristiansund Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
6
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:06:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
K. Klaesson
Norway
1 K. Klaesson
U. Nwokoma
Nigeria
14 U. Nwokoma
S. Haram
Substitution
Norway
4 S. Haram
A. Hammer Kjelsen
Norway
5 A. Hammer Kjelsen
O. Gudmundsson
Substitution
Iceland
3 O. Gudmundsson
K. Nesso
Substitution
Norway
7 K. Nesso
M. Christensen
Denmark
21 M. Christensen
E. Hagen
Norway
18 E. Hagen
H. Molvær Melland
Substitution
Norway
8 H. Molvær Melland
D. Jóhannsson
Substitution
Iceland
11 D. Jóhannsson
K. Lonnebu
Norway
39 K. Lonnebu
Pitch
A. Sæther
Norway
12 A. Sæther
F. Flex
Substitution
Denmark
3 F. Flex
D. Ulvestad
Norway
5 D. Ulvestad
J. Júlíusson
Iceland
4 J. Júlíusson
A. Munksgaard
Denmark
13 A. Munksgaard
H. Gikling Bruseth
Substitution
Norway
10 H. Gikling Bruseth
W. Igor
Nigeria
20 W. Igor
A. Kurd Rønning
Substitution
Norway
27 A. Kurd Rønning
S. Hestetun Kilen
Substitution
Norway
9 S. Hestetun Kilen
L. Alvheim
Norway
19 L. Alvheim
M. Isah Ubandoma
Substitution
Nigeria
7 M. Isah Ubandoma

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 6 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Color Line Stadion
Capacity :
10778
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Anders Olav Dale
Erland Hareland
Daniel Refsnes
Ola Hobber Nilsen

Statistics

Possession
Aalesund
53%
Kristiansund
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 4
63 Dangerous attacks 26
55 Possession 45
9 Corners 8
11 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

7 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1
7 Successful Dribbles 10
16 Throwins 9
16 Dribble Attempts 13
77 Ball Safe 77
12 Goal Attempts 11
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 77
7 Goal Kicks 10

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 3
3 Counter Attacks 3
102 Attacks 77

Possession

13 Key Passes 7
86 Successful Passes Percentage 80
55 Long Passes 76
440 Passes 370
28 Successful Long Passes 34
380 Successful Passes 296
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

Defensive

13 Tackles 20
3 Saves 6
8 Interceptions 7
37 Duels Won 62

Build-up

44 Total Crosses 21
9 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Ola Hobber Nilsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Kristoffer Klaesson
Kristoffer Klaesson Goalkeeper
6.64
3
Ólafur Guðmundsson
Ólafur Guðmundsson Defender
6.41
22
E. Engqvist
E. Engqvist
Defender60'
6.83
4
Simen Haram
Simen Haram Defender
7.06
25
Ulrik Syversen
Ulrik Syversen
Defender70'
6.29
5
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen Defender
6.63
7
Kristoffer Nessø
Kristoffer Nessø Defender
6.57
16
J. Ørsahl
J. Ørsahl
Defender69'
6.48
14
Uba Charles
Uba Charles Defender
6.59
8
Henrik Melland
Henrik Melland Midfielder
7.01
15
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Midfielder46'
6.51
18
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen Midfielder
6.7
21
Mathias Christensen
Mathias Christensen Midfielder
6.7
11
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson Attacker
6.66
20
I. Djantou
I. Djantou
Attacker46'
6.91
39
Kristian Lonebu
Kristian Lonebu Attacker
7.01
Referee : Ola Hobber Nilsen

Starting XI ▼

12
A. Sæther
A. Sæther Goalkeeper
7.19
3
F. Flex
F. Flex Defender
6.51
22
H. Haugen
H. Haugen
Defender89'
6.66
4
J. Júlíusson
J. Júlíusson Defender
6.98
5
D. Ulvestad
D. Ulvestad Defender
6.82
13
Alexander Munksgaard
Alexander Munksgaard Defender
6.81
10
Heine Gikling Bruseth
Heine Gikling Bruseth Midfielder
6.98
17
M. Williamsen
M. Williamsen
Defender89'
20
W. Igor
W. Igor Midfielder
6.45
27
A. Rønning
A. Rønning Midfielder
6.67
23
Tobias Hammer Svendsen
Tobias Hammer Svendsen
Midfielder60'
6.46
7
M. Ubandoma
M. Ubandoma Attacker
6.3
14
Syver Skeide
Syver Skeide
Midfielder72'
6.76
9
S. Kilen
S. Kilen Attacker
6.67
6
Jesper Isaksen
Jesper Isaksen
Midfielder89'
19
L. Alvheim
L. Alvheim Attacker
6.91

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Jesper Isaksen → S. Kilen
9th Substitution
89'
Event
M. Williamsen → Heine Gikling Bruseth
10th Substitution
89'
Event
H. Haugen → F. Flex
8th Substitution
Event
Kristian Lonebu
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
83'
Event
J. Ørsahl
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
81'
72'
Event
Syver Skeide → M. Ubandoma
7th Substitution
Event
Ulrik Syversen → Simen Haram
6th Substitution
70'
Event
J. Ørsahl → Kristoffer Nessø
5th Substitution
69'
62'
Event
W. Igor
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
E. Engqvist → Ólafur Guðmundsson
3rd Substitution
60'
60'
Event
Tobias Hammer Svendsen → A. Rønning
4th Substitution
56'
Event
M. Ubandoma
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
I. Djantou → Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch → Henrik Melland
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Henrik Melland
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45'
43'
Event
A. Rønning
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
28'
Event
J. Júlíusson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
28'
Event
6th Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 stalemate highlighted Kristiansund's effectiveness despite Aalesund's 55% possession edge and halftime goalless balance. Kristiansund, viewed as the stronger side, achieved a result defying pre-match favoritism toward Aalesund at 52.4% probability, with market misalignment confirmed. A 76.6% significant structural deviation underscored the away team's outperformance. Lacking xG metrics, performance depth is limited, but in-line efficiencies and absence of red cards or adjustments point to a fair reflection of balanced capabilities. Aalesund's failure to capitalize on control costs points, while Kristiansund builds positively from the draw.

Aalesund vs Kristiansund preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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