Aalesund vs Fredrikstad Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2026 Eliteserien, Norway

Color Line Stadion Tue, 7 Apr - 5:00 PM

Eliteserien

Aalesund Aalesund

Fredrikstad Fredrikstad

Full Time Tue, 7 Apr 5:00 PM

Round 3 Regular Season

Kristian Lonebu - 49'

Henrik Melland - 31'

Eirik Julius Granaas - 88'

Rocco Shein - 70'

Samuel Leach Holm - 44'

CONTEXT

The match between Aalesund and Fredrikstad has officially finished, with Fredrikstad securing a 3-2 away victory. Both teams went into the halftime break locked in a 1-1 draw, but the visitors ultimately edged out their opponents in a competitive second half. This away victory defied pre-match expectations. Aalesund entered the fixture as the market favorites with a 40.3% win probability, compared to Fredrikstad's 33.8% chance and a 25.9% likelihood of a draw. Consequently, Fredrikstad's triumph represents a significant deviation from the forecast, demonstrating that the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. On the pitch, the flow of the game was incredibly even, reflected by Fredrikstad holding a razor-thin possession advantage of 51% to Aalesund's 49%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final scoreline aligned with the quality of chances created. However, the teams' offensive efficiency shift remained entirely in line with general match dynamics. Finally, the fixture was contested without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were issued to impact the tactical balance of either side.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Fredrikstad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

K. Hagenes

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Jaeger

1st Assistant

M. Lokkeberg

2nd Assistant

T. Halsen

4th Official

K. Rekdal

A. Hagen

0.5

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.63

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

5 - 3 - 4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Aalesund

40.32%

Draw

25.87%

Fredrikstad

33.81%

Team Power Ranking

45.31

62.28

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Aalesund

Fredrikstad

Power Score

45.31

62.28

League Position

Global Rank

972

385

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Aalesund — Opponent-weighted form score

Fredrikstad — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aalesund Fredrikstad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Aalesund

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Fredrikstad

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aalesund ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Fredrikstad

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

35.51

19.71

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

19.71

35.51

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Aalesund +1.62 Efficiency Index

Fredrikstad -1.62 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Aalesund

Fredrikstad

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aalesund ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Fredrikstad

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Aalesund Fredrikstad

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Aalesund Fredrikstad

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Aalesund

Fredrikstad

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Aalesund

Fredrikstad

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Aalesund Fredrikstad

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Aalesund Fredrikstad

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Aalesund

Fredrikstad

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aalesund Aalesund Home

12 matches

Fredrikstad Fredrikstad Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T00:01:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2

Match Formation 5-4-1

1 K. Klaesson

14 U. Nwokoma

45 P. Aukland

5 A. Hammer Kjelsen

25 U. Valderhaug Syversen

16 J. Ørsal

21 M. Christensen

18 E. Hagen

8 H. Molvær Melland

11 D. Jóhannsson

39 K. Lonnebu

77 M. Børsheim

13 S. Sørløkk

4 F. Holmé

12 U. Fredriksen

5 S. Rafn

16 D. Eid

23 H. Skogvold

21 R. Shein

24 L. Owusu

20 O. Øhlenschlæger

10 J. Nunez Godoy

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 07, 2026, 05:00 PM

Competition :

2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 3 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Color Line Stadion

Capacity :

10778

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ , Clear

Referees :

Aleksander Jaeger

Monica Lokkeberg

Torgeir Halsen

Kristoffer Hagenes

Statistics

Possession

Aalesund

48%

Fredrikstad

52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3

0 Big Chances Created 1

6 Shots 0

48 Dangerous attacks 41

49 Possession 51

3 Corners 5

15 Free kicks 18

4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Goal Kicks 8

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64

8 Successful Dribbles 7

26 Throwins 10

2 Assists 2

5 Substitutions 5

90 Ball Safe 83

10 Goal Attempts 5

16 Dribble Attempts 11

Attacking

87 Attacks 112

4 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 79

12 Key Passes 6

433 Passes 457

326 Successful Passes 360

61 Long Passes 82

33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38

20 Successful Long Passes 31

Defensive

56 Duels Won 54

10 Tackles 18

3 Saves 4

3 Interceptions 7

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 18

5 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

18 Fouls 15

1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Kristoffer Hagenes

Manager ▼

K. Rekdal Coach

Starting XI ▼

Kristoffer Klaesson Goalkeeper

Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen Defender

Uba Charles Defender

Kristoffer Nessø

Midfielder64'

J. Ørsahl Defender

Ulrik Syversen Defender

E. Myrlid

Attacker89'

Philip Sandvik Aukland Defender

Henrik Melland Midfielder

Endre Hjertager Osenbroch

Midfielder76'

Elias Kristoffersen Hagen Midfielder

Mathias Christensen Midfielder

Hakon Butli Hammer

Midfielder64'

Davíð Snær Jóhannsson Attacker

I. Djantou

Attacker76'

Kristian Lonebu Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Hakon Butli Hammer

Midfielder64'

Kristoffer Nessø

Midfielder64'

Endre Hjertager Osenbroch

Midfielder76'

I. Djantou

Attacker76'

E. Myrlid

Attacker89'

Bench ▼

Tor Erik Valderhaug Larsen Goalkeeper

Marius Andresen Defender

Simen Haram Defender

E. Engqvist Defender

Referee : Kristoffer Hagenes