FC København vs Odense BK Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Parken Wed, 22 Apr - 4:00 PM
Superliga
FC København COP
2 Winner 1
Odense BK ODE
Full Time Wed, 22 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 6 Relegation Round
M. Madsen - 18'
Jordan Larsson - 41'
Goal
|
Goal
William Martin - 68'

FC København vs Odense BK preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

FC København claimed a hard-fought 2-1 win against Odense BK in a match defined by efficiency over dominance. Despite controlling just 34% of possession, the home side surged to a 2-0 halftime lead, showcasing clinical finishing early on. Odense BK, with 66% possession, mounted pressure in the second half, pulling one back late but falling short of an equalizer. FC København, considered the stronger team pre-match, demonstrated resilience and tactical discipline to secure the victory. The result highlights their ability to capitalize on limited opportunities against a possession-heavy opponent. No red cards disrupted play, and the game flowed without major interruptions. This outcome underscores FC København's effectiveness in transition play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC København exhibited a significant 41.5% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing xG data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without xG metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Dahl
J. Dahl
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.31
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.93
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. García Nilton
J. García Nilton
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.31
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.93
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
M. Redder
M. Redder
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.31
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.93
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. A. Sundberg
J. A. Sundberg
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.31
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.93
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
FC København B. Svensson
B. Svensson
VS
Odense BK A. Zorniger
A. Zorniger
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vejle Boldklub Rank: W
Randers FC Rank: W
Silkeborg IF Rank: W
Fredericia Rank: L
Odense BK Rank: L
Randers FC Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Randers FC Rank: W
Silkeborg IF Rank: L
Fredericia Rank: W
Vejle Boldklub Rank: D
FC København Rank: W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: L
31
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
31 - 14 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC København
58.47%
Draw
22.83%
Away Odense BK
18.71%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC København
-37.14%
Draw
+18.63%
Odense BK
+18.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.24
24.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC København
Odense BK
Power Score
24.24
24.1
League Position
7
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC København — Opponent-weighted form score
Odense BK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC København Odense BK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC København

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Odense BK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC København ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Odense BK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
66.62
25.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.30
66.62
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC København +3.87 Efficiency Index
vs
Odense BK -3.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC København
Odense BK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC København ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Odense BK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC København Odense BK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC København Odense BK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC København
Odense BK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC København
vs
Odense BK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC København Odense BK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC København 0.38
Odense BK 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC København Odense BK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC København 0.02
Odense BK 0.04
FC København
Odense BK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ODE had peak pressure around 41'.
  • COP started the game with stronger pressure.
COP Pressure ODE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ODE reached the top pressure at 41' (87.88).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 54 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC København COP Home
54 matches
Odense BK ODE Away
Match Record
31
Wins
9
14
Draws
14
9
Losses
31
Goals
98
Goals Scored
48
48
Goals Conceded
98
+50
Goal Difference
-50
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-23T00:01:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Pitch
D. Kotarski
Croatia
1 D. Kotarski
J. Suzuki
Japan
20 J. Suzuki
P. Hatzidiakos
Greece
6 P. Hatzidiakos
M. Jattah-Njie Jørgensen
Denmark
25 M. Jattah-Njie Jørgensen
M. López Lanfranco
Substitution
Peru
15 M. López Lanfranco
J. Larsson
Sweden
11 J. Larsson
M. Madsen
Denmark
21 M. Madsen
W. Clem
Substitution
Denmark
36 W. Clem
R. Rodrigues Silva
Substitution
Brazil
16 R. Rodrigues Silva
M. Elyounoussi
Substitution
Norway
10 M. Elyounoussi
V. Dadason
Substitution
Iceland
39 V. Dadason
V. Røsholt Myhra
Norway
16 V. Røsholt Myhra
M. McCoy
Denmark
15 M. McCoy
J. Berthel Askou Harvey
Denmark
13 J. Berthel Askou Harvey
N. Bürgy
Substitution
Switzerland
5 N. Bürgy
L. Owusu
Netherlands
20 L. Owusu
I. Ouédraogo
Substitution
Burkina Faso
22 I. Ouédraogo
R. Falk Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
8 R. Falk Jensen
J. Arp
Substitution
Germany
7 J. Arp
M. Ejdum
Denmark
18 M. Ejdum
J. Grot
Substitution
Netherlands
31 J. Grot
N. Ganaus
Germany
17 N. Ganaus

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 22, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 6 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Parken
Capacity
38065
Attendance
24227
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jesper Dahl
Jonathan García Nilton
Mikkel Redder
Jakob A. Sundberg

Statistics

Possession
COP
40%
ODE
60%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 3
20 Shots 14
53 Dangerous attacks 54
34 Possession 66
6 Corners 11
11 Free kicks 7

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1
27 Throwins 20
11 Dribble Attempts 29
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
5 Successful Dribbles 18
8 Goal Kicks 12
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Assists 1
58 Ball Safe 66
13 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

88 Attacks 101
5 Big Chances Missed 2
4 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
74 Successful Passes Percentage 87
247 Successful Passes 564
333 Passes 648
13 Key Passes 10
61 Long Passes 45
25 Successful Long Passes 19

Defensive

2 Saves 4
24 Tackles 11
50 Duels Won 49
16 Interceptions 12

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 26
5 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

7 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Mikkel Redder

Starting XI ▼

1
Dominik Kotarski
Dominik Kotarski Goalkeeper
6.79
6
Pantelis Hatzidiakos
Pantelis Hatzidiakos Defender
6.85
15
Marcos López
Marcos López Defender
7.06
24
Birger Meling
Birger Meling
Defender90+3'
6.61
20
Junnosuke Suzuki
Junnosuke Suzuki Defender
6.98
25
Zanka
Zanka Defender
6.79
11
Jordan Larsson
Jordan Larsson Midfielder
7.04
16
Robert
Robert Midfielder
6.81
7
Viktor Claesson
Viktor Claesson
Midfielder65'
6.75
21
M. Madsen
M. Madsen Midfielder
6.89
36
William Clem
William Clem Midfielder
6.91
27
Thomas Delaney
Thomas Delaney
Midfielder76'
6.71
10
Mohamed Elyounoussi
Mohamed Elyounoussi Attacker
7.22
17
Aurélio Buta
Aurélio Buta
Defender76'
6.11
39
Viktor Bjarki Dadason
Viktor Bjarki Dadason Attacker
6.77
14
Andreas Cornelius
Andreas Cornelius
Attacker65'
6.71
Referee : Mikkel Redder

Starting XI ▼

16
Viljar Myhra
Viljar Myhra Goalkeeper
6.92
5
Nicolas Bürgy
Nicolas Bürgy Defender
6.69
24
Yaya Bojang
Yaya Bojang
Defender79'
6.67
13
Julius Berthel Askou
Julius Berthel Askou Defender
6.92
15
Marcus McCoy
Marcus McCoy Defender
6.83
20
Leeroy Owusu
Leeroy Owusu Defender
6.87
7
Fiete Arp
Fiete Arp Midfielder
7.18
23
William Martin
William Martin
Midfielder58'
6.55
8
Rasmus Falk
Rasmus Falk Midfielder
7.03
6
Jakob Bonde
Jakob Bonde
Midfielder79'
6.7
18
Max Ejdum
Max Ejdum Midfielder
6.98
22
Ismahila Ouédraogo
Ismahila Ouédraogo Midfielder
6.87
3
Adam Sørensen
Adam Sørensen
Defender87'
6.6
17
Noah Ganaus
Noah Ganaus Attacker
6.97
31
Jay-Roy Grot
Jay-Roy Grot Attacker
6.83
11
Jona Niemiec
Jona Niemiec
Attacker58'
6.75

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Birger Meling → Marcos López
10th Substitution
90+3'
87'
Event
Adam Sørensen → Ismahila Ouédraogo
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Jakob Bonde → Rasmus Falk
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Yaya Bojang → Nicolas Bürgy
7th Substitution
Event
Aurélio Buta → Mohamed Elyounoussi
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Thomas Delaney → William Clem
6th Substitution
76'
68'
Event
William Martin
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Andreas Cornelius → Viktor Bjarki Dadason
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Viktor Claesson → Robert
3rd Substitution
65'
58'
Event
William Martin → Fiete Arp
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Jona Niemiec → Jay-Roy Grot
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jordan Larsson
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
41'
Event
M. Madsen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
18'

CONCLUSION

FC København's 2-1 triumph over Odense BK validates their status as the stronger side, triumphing despite low possession through sharp early goals and stout defense. The halftime 2-0 buffer proved decisive as Odense BK's second-half dominance yielded only a consolation. This performance reflects tactical maturity, turning minority ball control into maximum impact. The significant structural deviation amplifies the home win's impressiveness, aligning with market views while efficiency held steady. Without xG or disruptive events, the result stands as a testament to FC København's pragmatic approach in securing vital points.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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