Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Livyi Bereh Mon, 27 Apr - 10:00 AM
Premier League
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1 – 1
Oleksandria Oleksandria
Full Time Mon, 27 Apr 10:00 AM
Round 25 Regular Season
Carlos Rojas - 33'
Goal
|
Goal
Miguel Campos - 90+2'

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi welcomed Oleksandria to a hard-fought encounter that concluded in a 1-1 draw. The home team struck first, securing a 1-0 lead by halftime through determined first-half play. Despite holding 48% possession compared to Oleksandria's 52%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi entered as the stronger side per pre-match assessments. The visitors mounted a resilient comeback in the second half, leveling the score and denying the hosts victory. No red cards disrupted proceedings, and the game proceeded without major tactical overhauls. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 72.9% aligned with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, diverging from expectations where the home side held a clear edge. Balanced possession reflected a competitive affair, with both teams showcasing efficiency in line with norms. The draw tempers Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's momentum while highlighting Oleksandria's grit.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited 72.9% structural deviation for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, rated significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, so alignment with expected goals cannot be assessed.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-market probabilities favoring Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable due to absent expected goals metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Rayda
M. Rayda
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.86
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
M. Yukhymenko
M. Yukhymenko
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.86
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
P. Kotubey
P. Kotubey
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.86
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
M. Skrypnyk
M. Skrypnyk
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.86
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi S. Nahornyak
S. Nahornyak
VS
Oleksandria V. Sharan
V. Sharan
1.07
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.36
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Karpaty Rank: D
Zorya Luhansk Rank: L
Kudrivka Rank: W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: W
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Veres Rank: L
Karpaty Rank: L
SK Poltava Rank: D
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: L
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
49.7%
Draw
27.05%
Away Oleksandria
23.25%

Movement

Changes since opening
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
+41.5%
Draw
-57.24%
Oleksandria
+15.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.31
10.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Oleksandria
Power Score
22.31
10.61
League Position
11
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Opponent-weighted form score
Oleksandria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Oleksandria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Oleksandria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oleksandria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.46
30.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.19
26.46
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi -0.38 Efficiency Index
vs
Oleksandria +0.38 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Oleksandria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oleksandria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Oleksandria
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Oleksandria
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Oleksandria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
vs
Oleksandria
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Oleksandria
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.19
Oleksandria 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Oleksandria
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.02
Oleksandria 0.02
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Oleksandria
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Epitsentr Dunayivtsi had peak pressure around 11'.
  • Epitsentr Dunayivtsi started the game with stronger pressure.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Pressure Oleksandria Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi reached the top pressure at 11' (72.49).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Home
1 matches
Oleksandria Oleksandria Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T06:14:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
O. Bilyk
Ukraine
31 O. Bilyk
V. Luchkevych
Substitution
Ukraine
67 V. Luchkevych
S. Grygorashchuk
Ukraine
3 S. Grygorashchuk
N. Coch Montaña
Spain
77 N. Coch Montaña
O. Klymets
Ukraine
97 (C) O. Klymets
M. Myronyuk
Substitution
Ukraine
8 M. Myronyuk
J. Ceberio Amonarriz
Spain
39 J. Ceberio Amonarriz
C. Rojas Mosquera
Spain
99 C. Rojas Mosquera
K. Kovalets
Substitution
Ukraine
6 K. Kovalets
J. Cifuentes Xalmet
Substitution
Spain
9 J. Cifuentes Xalmet
V. Sydun
Ukraine
20 V. Sydun
V. Dolgyi
Ukraine
1 V. Dolgyi
M. Ogarkov
Ukraine
23 M. Ogarkov
A. Bol
Ukraine
86 A. Bol
M. Ferreira Campos
Portugal
26 M. Ferreira Campos
B. Butko
Substitution
Ukraine
91 B. Butko
D. Vashchenko
Ukraine
20 D. Vashchenko
P. Yade
Senegal
37 P. Yade
S. Buletsa
Ukraine
10 S. Buletsa
D. Myshnov
Substitution
Ukraine
9 (C) D. Myshnov
J. da Silva
Substitution
44 J. da Silva
M. Rodrigues Teixeira
Substitution
Portugal
67 M. Rodrigues Teixeira

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 27, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 25 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Livyi Bereh
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mykhailo Rayda
Mykhailo Yukhymenko
Petro Kotubey
Maksym Skrypnyk

Statistics

Possession
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
49%
Oleksandria
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Shots 7
54 Dangerous attacks 54
48 Possession 52
5 Corners 8
17 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 9
1 Assists 1

Attacking

84 Attacks 77

Defensive

5 Saves 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
7 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Mykhailo Rayda

Starting XI ▼

31
Oleg Bilyk
Oleg Bilyk Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Stepan Grigorashchuk
Stepan Grigorashchuk Defender
6.26
67
Valeriy Luchkevych
Valeriy Luchkevych Defender
6.5
21
Vladyslav Supryaga
Vladyslav Supryaga
Attacker87'
6.67
77
Nil Coch
Nil Coch Defender
6.26
97
Oleksandr Klymets
Oleksandr Klymets (C) Defender
6.26
6
Kyrylo Kovalets
Kyrylo Kovalets Midfielder
6.5
28
Andriy Lipovuz
Andriy Lipovuz
Midfielder71'
6.47
8
Mykola Myronyuk
Mykola Myronyuk Midfielder
6.5
5
Yevhen Zaporozhets
Yevhen Zaporozhets
Midfielder87'
6.48
9
Joaquinete
Joaquinete Midfielder
6.37
2
Alagy Oliveira
Alagy Oliveira
Defender90+4'
6.35
20
Vadym Sydun
Vadym Sydun Midfielder
6.37
39
Jon Ceberio
Jon Ceberio Midfielder
6.37
99
Carlos Rojas
Carlos Rojas Midfielder
6.37
Referee : Mykhailo Rayda

Starting XI ▼

1
Viktor Dolgyi
Viktor Dolgyi Goalkeeper
6.12
23
Mykola Ogarkov
Mykola Ogarkov Defender
6.26
26
Miguel Campos
Miguel Campos Defender
6.26
86
Anton Bol
Anton Bol Defender
6.26
91
Bogdan Butko
Bogdan Butko Defender
6.26
40
Dmytro Chernysh
Dmytro Chernysh
Midfielder83'
6.37
9
Dmytro Myshnyov
Dmytro Myshnyov (C) Midfielder
6.37
49
Mateus Amaral
Mateus Amaral
Midfielder77'
6.61
10
Sergiy Buletsa
Sergiy Buletsa Midfielder
6.37
20
Daniil Vashchenko
Daniil Vashchenko Midfielder
6.37
37
Papa Ndiaga Yade
Papa Ndiaga Yade Midfielder
6.37
44
Jhonnatan Silva
Jhonnatan Silva Midfielder
6.37
24
Hussayn Touati
Hussayn Touati
Midfielder70'
6.45
67
Mauro Rodrigues
Mauro Rodrigues Midfielder
6.37
77
Dmytrii Kremchanin
Dmytrii Kremchanin
Attacker46'
6.35

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Hussayn Touati
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Alagy Oliveira → Joaquinete
8th Substitution
90+4'
90+2'
Event
Miguel Campos
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Vladyslav Supryaga → Valeriy Luchkevych
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Yevhen Zaporozhets → Mykola Myronyuk
7th Substitution
87'
83'
Event
Dmytro Chernysh → Bogdan Butko
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Papa Ndiaga Yade
2nd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Mateus Amaral → Dmytro Myshnyov
4th Substitution
Event
Andriy Lipovuz → Kyrylo Kovalets
3rd Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Hussayn Touati → Jhonnatan Silva
2nd Substitution
52'
Event
Jhonnatan Silva
1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Dmytrii Kremchanin → Mauro Rodrigues
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Carlos Rojas
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
33'
2'
Event
Papa Ndiaga Yade
Offside / Goal Disallowed

CONCLUSION

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 1-1 draw against Oleksandria underscores a resilient away performance that thwarted home dominance. Leading 1-0 at halftime, the hosts faltered post-interval, allowing equalization amid balanced possession. Deemed the stronger team, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi faced a significant 72.9% structural deviation in the result, misaligning with pre-market views. Efficiency held steady without xG insights to refine analysis. Absent disruptions like reds preserved a pure contest, yet the draw signals caution for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form. Oleksandria's second-half resolve earns praise, positioning them as spoilers in this even matchup.

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