Dinamo Zagreb vs Varaždin Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Maksimir
Sun, 26 Apr - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Dinamo Zagreb
GNK
2
1
1
Varaždin
Varaždin
Full Time
Sun, 26 Apr
4:45 PM
Round 32 ·
Regular Season
Josip Misic - 48'
Dion Beljo - 81'
|
Antonio Borsic - 51'
Dinamo Zagreb vs Varaždin preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
STANDINGS
Loading standings...
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: May 1
CONTEXT
Dinamo Zagreb secured a 2-1 victory over Varaždin, maintaining a goalless 0-0 scoreline at halftime before finding their breakthrough in the second half. The home side dominated possession with 64% to Varaždin's 36%, reflecting their status as the stronger team. Despite the control, the game remained tight until Dinamo converted their opportunities effectively. No red cards were issued, ensuring the result unfolded without disciplinary disruptions. The outcome demonstrated minimal structural deviation at 2.6%, aligning closely with pre-match expectations where Dinamo were heavily favored. Efficiency metrics stayed in line, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Varaždin mounted some resistance but couldn't overturn the possession disparity or capitalize on counter chances.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Dinamo Zagreb's win featured minimal structural deviation of 2.6%.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
-
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
-
Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
-
Event impact: No major events altered the match flow.
-
Red card distortion: No red cards caused zero distortion to the outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
M. Kovačević
VS
N. Šafarić
2.43
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.6
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961
Rank:
W
Rijeka
Rank:
D
Vukovar
Rank:
W
Osijek
Rank:
W
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rank:
W
Slaven Koprivnica
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka
Rank:
W
Osijek
Rank:
W
Slaven Koprivnica
Rank:
W
Gorica
Rank:
D
Istra 1961
Rank:
L
Vukovar
Rank:
W
30
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
30 - 8 - 3
3
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Dinamo Zagreb
97.43%
Draw
2.38%
Varaždin
0.19%
Movement
Changes since opening
Dinamo Zagreb
+1.82%
Draw
-1.82%
Varaždin
0%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
39.2
27.85
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Zagreb
Varaždin
Power Score
39.2
27.85
League Position
1
3
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Dinamo Zagreb Varaždin
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Dinamo Zagreb
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Varaždin
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Dinamo Zagreb
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Varaždin
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Zagreb
Varaždin
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb
Varaždin
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Zagreb
Varaždin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Varaždin
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Dinamo Zagreb
Varaždin
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo Zagreb
0.31
Varaždin
0.15
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb
Varaždin
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo Zagreb
0.04
Varaždin
0.04
Dinamo Zagreb
Varaždin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- GNK had peak pressure around 41'.
- Varaždin started the game with stronger pressure.
GNK Pressure
Varaždin Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
GNK reached the top pressure at 41' (100.00).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Dinamo Zagreb
GNK
Home
41
matches
Varaždin
Varaždin
Away
Match Record
30
Wins
3
8
Draws
8
3
Losses
30
Goals
97
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
97
+60
Goal Difference
-60
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-26T16:30:29+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-3-3
Match Formation
3-4-2-1
40 D. Livaković
N. Galesic
#1570'
25 M. Valincic
36 S. Domínguez Viloria
26 S. McKenna
B. Goda
#356'
22 M. Vinlöf
G. Vidović
#1046'
14 M. Soldo
27 J. Mišić
7 L. Stojković
M. Bakrar
#7156'
21 M. Lisica
9 D. Dijon
Arbër Hoxha
75'
11 A. Hoxha
33 J. Silić
16 N. Tepšić
44 M. Barać
M. Mladenovski
#1382'
2 S. Lesjak
25 A. Boršić
Iuri Tavares
#3859'
8 T. Duvnjak
S. Ilinkovic
#1582'
24 M. Marina
23 F. Maglica
D. Puclin
#682'
22 L. Mamić
7 M. Vuk
I. Canjuga
#2868'
10 A. Latković
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Maksimir
Capacity
24851
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Antonio Melnjak
Kruno Šarić
Oliver Romić
Luka Pajić
Next Match
Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Gorica
League: 1. HNL
Kickoff: Sat, 2 May - 2:00 PM
Venue: ŠRC Velika Gorica
Varaždin
vs
Hajduk Split
League: 1. HNL
Kickoff: Sun, 3 May - 4:15 PM
Venue: Stadion Poljud
Statistics
Possession
GNK
61%
Varaždin
39%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
1
1
Big Chances Created
1
6
Shots
2
52
Dangerous attacks
26
64
Possession
36
10
Corners
4
12
Free kicks
4
1
Yellow Cards
1
Match Overview
25
Throwins
22
24
Dribble Attempts
14
38
Successful Dribbles Percentage
71
9
Successful Dribbles
10
5
Goal Kicks
9
1
Hit Woodwork
0
5
Substitutions
5
2
Assists
1
Attacking
100
Attacks
54
1
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
552
Passes
315
87
Successful Passes Percentage
76
482
Successful Passes
239
40
Long Passes
61
13
Key Passes
4
20
Successful Long Passes
24
50
Successful Long Passes Percentage
39
Defensive
53
Duels Won
45
22
Tackles
25
9
Interceptions
9
1
Saves
6
Build-up
25
Total Crosses
12
7
Accurate Crosses
3
Discipline
1
Offsides
1
4
Fouls
12
Lineup
Referee :
Antonio Melnjak
Manager ▼
M. Kovačević
Coach
Starting XI ▼
40
Dominik Livakovic
Goalkeeper
6.66 22
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
Defender
6.95 3Bruno Goda
6.8Defender56'
25
Moris Valincic
Defender
6.86
15Niko Galesic
6.82Defender70'
26
Scott McKenna
Defender
7.12 36
Sergi Domínguez
Defender
7.1 7
Luka Stojkovic
Midfielder
7.24 14
Marko Soldo
Midfielder
6.77 10Gabriel Vidovic
7.01Midfielder46'
27
Josip Misic
Midfielder
9
Dion Beljo
Attacker
11
Arbër Hoxha
Attacker
6.98 —
Arbër Hoxha
75'
21
Mateo Lisica
Attacker
7.01 71Monsef Bakrar
6.88Attacker56'
Substitutes ▼
33
Ivan Nevistic
Goalkeeper
6.73 44
Ivan Filipovic
Goalkeeper
6.82 13
Paul Tabinas
Defender
6.48 42
Marko Zebić
Defender
41
Sven Šunta
Midfielder
6.61 23
Cardoso Varela
Attacker
6.62 30
Fran Topic
Attacker
6.74
Referee :
Antonio Melnjak
Manager ▼
N. Šafarić
Coach
Starting XI ▼
33
Josip Silic
Goalkeeper
6.95 2
Sven Lesjak
Defender
6.99 13Mario Mladenovski
6.63Defender82'
16
Novak Tepsic
Defender
6.72 44
Mateo Barac
Defender
6.73 8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Midfielder
6.81 38Iuri Tavares
Attacker59'
6.99
23
Frane Maglica
Midfielder
6.8 24
Mario Marina
Midfielder
6.73 15Silvio Ilinkovic
6.93Midfielder82'
25
Antonio Borsic
Midfielder
7
Matej Vuk
Attacker
6.8 10
Aleksa Latkovic
Attacker
7.13 28Ivan Canjuga
6.46Attacker68'
22
Luka Mamic
Attacker
6.67 6David Puclin
6.58Midfielder82'
Substitutes ▼
1
Oliver Zelenika
Goalkeeper
6.9 21
T. Novak
Goalkeeper
30
Luka Posinković
Defender
6.25 18
Paizinho
Attacker
6.6
Events
2ND-HALF
90+3'
Iuri Tavares
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
82'
Silvio Ilinkovic → Mario Marina
8th Substitution
82'
Mario Mladenovski → Sven Lesjak
9th Substitution
82'
David Puclin → Luka Mamic
10th Substitution
Dion Beljo
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
81'
Ismaël Bennacer → Arbër Hoxha
7th Substitution
75'
Niko Galesic → Moris Valincic
6th Substitution
70'
68'
Ivan Canjuga → Aleksa Latkovic
5th Substitution
59'
Iuri Tavares → Tomislav Duvnjak
4th Substitution
Bruno Goda → Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
3rd Substitution
56'
Monsef Bakrar → Mateo Lisica
2nd Substitution
56'
Moris Valincic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
55'
51'
Antonio Borsic
Header / 2nd Goal
Josip Misic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
48'
Gabriel Vidovic → Marko Soldo
1st Substitution
46'
CONCLUSION
Dinamo Zagreb's 2-1 triumph over Varaždin validated their superiority, with dominant possession translating into a second-half win after a 0-0 halftime stalemate. The minimal 2.6% deviation and full market alignment underscore a predictable result for the stronger side. Absent xG data limits performance nuance, but efficiency in line suggests clinical finishing amid control. Varaždin's lower possession limited threats, and no red cards preserved natural progression. This outcome reinforces Dinamo's consistency against weaker opposition.
How We Build This Analysis
BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.