Dender vs Sporting Charleroi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Van Roystadion Sat, 7 Mar - 5:15 PM
Pro League
Dender DEN
2 – 2
Sporting Charleroi SPC
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 5:15 PM
Roman Kvet - 21'
David Hrncar - 39'
Goal
|
Goal
Aurélien Scheidler - 6'
Antoine Colassin - 78'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Dender 2–2 Sporting Charleroi. The match ended in a draw. Sporting Charleroi showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sporting Charleroi showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Boterberg
J. Boterberg
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
N. Senecaut
N. Senecaut
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Ledda
M. Ledda
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
T. Vanpoucke
T. Vanpoucke
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Dender Y. Ferrera
Y. Ferrera
VS
Sporting Charleroi H. Cornelis
H. Cornelis
0.76
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.23
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cercle Brugge Rank: D
Sint-Truiden Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: L
Genk Rank: L
Anderlecht Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Club Brugge Rank: L
Westerlo Rank: L
Gent Rank: L
Cercle Brugge Rank: L
Sint-Truiden Rank: W
Antwerp Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dender
25.43%
Draw
27.27%
Away Sporting Charleroi
47.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
22.62
40.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dender
Sporting Charleroi
Power Score
22.62
40.48
League Position
16
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dender — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dender Sporting Charleroi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dender

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dender ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.95
45.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
45.88
38.95
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dender -0.61 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Charleroi +0.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dender
Sporting Charleroi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dender ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dender Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dender Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dender
Sporting Charleroi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dender DEN Home
5 matches
Sporting Charleroi SPC Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
5
-8
Goal Difference
+8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:12:06+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 05:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stadium
Van Roystadion
Capacity
8157
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jan Boterberg
N. Senecaut
Massimiliano Ledda
Tom Vanpoucke

Statistics

Possession
DEN
42%
SPC
58%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 6
35 Dangerous attacks 83
43 Possession 57
5 Corners 13
11 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
16 Successful Headers 22
3 Successful Dribbles 12
10 Dribble Attempts 18
30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
1 Goal Attempts 2
17 Throwins 28
2 Assists 2
17 Ball Safe 18
14 Goal Kicks 5
1 Injuries 0
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

73 Attacks 104
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

24 Successful Long Passes 31
230 Successful Passes 330
323 Passes 409
62 Long Passes 54
71 Successful Passes Percentage 81
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
12 Key Passes 18

Defensive

16 Tackles 17
10 Interceptions 9
4 Saves 2

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 5
15 Total Crosses 39

Discipline

8 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jordan Kadiri
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+6'
90+3'
Event
Yassine Titraoui
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Filip Szymczak → Parfait Guiagon
8th Substitution
Event
Jordan Kadiri → David Hrncar
7th Substitution
83'
78'
Event
Antoine Colassin
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
75'
Event
Parfait Guiagon
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Krzysztof Koton → Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Mohamed Berte → David Toševski
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Malcolm Viltard → Alireza Jahanbakhsh
6th Substitution
68'
62'
Event
Antoine Colassin → Antoine Bernier
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Patrick Pflücke → Étienne Camara
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
David Hrncar
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
39'
Event
Bo De Kerf → Luc De Fougerolles
1st Substitution
33'
Event
Roman Kvet
Header / 2nd Goal
21'
6'
Event
Aurélien Scheidler
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sporting Charleroi exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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