Cracovia Kraków vs Pogoń Szczecin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego Sat, 25 Apr - 6:15 PM
Ekstraklasa
Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków
1 – 1
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 6:15 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Kahveh Zahiroleslam - 90+5'
Goal
|
Goal
Kellyn Acosta - 18'
Oskar Wojcik 90' Second yellow card
|

Cracovia Kraków vs Pogoń Szczecin preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Cracovia Kraków and Pogoń Szczecin played out a 1-1 draw in the Ekstraklasa, with the visitors taking a 0-1 lead at halftime. Cracovia held 55% possession overall but suffered a red card, leaving them with ten men for part of the second half. Despite the disadvantage, the home side equalized, showcasing resilience against the stronger Pogoń team. The match featured no xG data, limiting deeper chance quality analysis, but possession favored Cracovia while Pogoń's efficiency kept them competitive. The red card introduced distortion, altering second-half flow as Cracovia defended deeply yet found a goal. Pogoń's failure to win despite strength points to missed opportunities. This result reflects moderate structural deviation, with the draw preventing a clearer outcome aligned with team hierarchies.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited moderate 8.1% structural deviation towards Pogoń Szczecin.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without shot data.
  • Event impact: Home red card significantly impacted second-half possession and attacking play.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion identified as key second-half adjustment factor.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Sylwestrzak
D. Sylwestrzak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
A. Karasewicz
A. Karasewicz
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
M. Sobczak
M. Sobczak
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
P. Szypula
P. Szypula
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Cracovia Kraków L. Elsner
L. Elsner
VS
Pogoń Szczecin T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
0.89
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.35
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Raków Częstochowa Rank: L
Arka Gdynia Rank: D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: L
Katowice Rank: W
Wisła Płock Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Piast Gliwice Rank: W
Legia Warszawa Rank: L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: L
Korona Kielce Rank: W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: L
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 8 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cracovia Kraków
3.61%
Draw
91.93%
Away Pogoń Szczecin
4.47%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.97
23.55
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cracovia Kraków
Pogoń Szczecin
Power Score
17.97
23.55
League Position
11
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cracovia Kraków — Opponent-weighted form score
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cracovia Kraków Pogoń Szczecin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cracovia Kraków

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cracovia Kraków ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pogoń Szczecin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.00
23.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.00
29.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cracovia Kraków +0.55 Efficiency Index
vs
Pogoń Szczecin -0.55 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cracovia Kraków
Pogoń Szczecin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cracovia Kraków ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pogoń Szczecin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cracovia Kraków Pogoń Szczecin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cracovia Kraków Pogoń Szczecin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cracovia Kraków
Pogoń Szczecin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cracovia Kraków
vs
Pogoń Szczecin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cracovia Kraków Pogoń Szczecin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cracovia Kraków 0.36
Pogoń Szczecin 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cracovia Kraków Pogoń Szczecin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cracovia Kraków 0.04
Pogoń Szczecin 0.03
Cracovia Kraków
Pogoń Szczecin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Cracovia Kraków had peak pressure around 66'.
  • Cracovia Kraków started the game with stronger pressure.
Cracovia Kraków Pressure Pogoń Szczecin Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Cracovia Kraków reached the top pressure at 66' (75.87).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków Home
33 matches
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Away
Match Record
12
Wins
13
8
Draws
8
13
Losses
12
Goals
45
Goals Scored
48
48
Goals Conceded
45
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:08:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
S. Madejski
Poland
13 S. Madejski
O. Wójcik
Poland
66 O. Wójcik
G. Henriksson
Sweden
4 G. Henriksson
B. Traoré
Substitution
France
61 B. Traoré
M. Perković
Croatia
39 M. Perković
D. Piła
Poland
79 D. Piła
A. Hasić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Hasić
K. Knap
Substitution
Poland
20 K. Knap
M. Dominguez
Substitution
Switzerland
10 M. Dominguez
J. Batoum
Substitution
Cameroon
29 J. Batoum
M. Yankov Minchev
Substitution
Bulgaria
17 M. Yankov Minchev
V. Cojocaru
Romania
77 V. Cojocaru
L. Borges da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
4 L. Borges da Silva
A. Szalai
Hungary
41 A. Szalai
D. Keramitsis
Greece
13 D. Keramitsis
D. Lončar
Croatia
22 D. Lončar
Natan Lawa
Substitution
47 Natan Lawa
K. Acosta
Substitution
United States
3 K. Acosta
F. Ulvestad
Norway
8 F. Ulvestad
M. Agger
Substitution
Denmark
25 M. Agger
P. Mukairu
Substitution
Nigeria
18 P. Mukairu
F. Čuić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 F. Čuić

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego
Capacity
15016
Attendance
10067
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Damian Sylwestrzak
Adam Karasewicz
Michal Sobczak
Piotr Szypula

Statistics

Possession
Cracovia Kraków
53%
Pogoń Szczecin
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
11 Shots 4
39 Dangerous attacks 27
55 Possession 45
7 Corners 0
20 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
4 Successful Dribbles 5
24 Throwins 15
11 Dribble Attempts 11
10 Goal Kicks 12
5 Substitutions 5
64 Ball Safe 59
9 Goal Attempts 5
2 Injuries 2
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 0

Attacking

72 Attacks 63
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

324 Successful Passes 264
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
18 Successful Long Passes 30
11 Key Passes 5
50 Long Passes 73
78 Successful Passes Percentage 76
415 Passes 349

Defensive

6 Interceptions 8
1 Saves 3
13 Tackles 9
55 Duels Won 48

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 8
8 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 20
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Damian Sylwestrzak

Starting XI ▼

13
Sebastian Madejski
Sebastian Madejski Goalkeeper
6.89
4
Gustav Henriksson
Gustav Henriksson Defender
6.75
39
Mauro Perkovic
Mauro Perkovic Defender
6.97
61
Brahim Traoré
Brahim Traoré Defender
6.75
18
Kahveh Zahiroleslam
Kahveh Zahiroleslam
Attacker81'
6.55
66
Oskar Wojcik
Oskar Wojcik Defender
7.03
10
Maxime Dominguez
Maxime Dominguez Midfielder
6.58
7
Mateusz Praszelik
Mateusz Praszelik
Midfielder81'
6.64
14
Ajdin Hasic
Ajdin Hasic Midfielder
6.97
20
Karol Knap
Karol Knap Midfielder
6.56
43
Mateusz Klich
Mateusz Klich
Midfielder58'
6.95
79
Dominik Pila
Dominik Pila Midfielder
6.72
17
Martin Yankov
Martin Yankov Attacker
6.84
11
Pau Sans
Pau Sans
Attacker58'
6.74
29
Jean Batoum
Jean Batoum Attacker
6.38
70
Dijon Kameri
Dijon Kameri
Midfielder72'
6.69
Referee : Damian Sylwestrzak

Starting XI ▼

77
Valentin Cojocaru
Valentin Cojocaru Goalkeeper
7.15
4
Léo Borges
Léo Borges Defender
6.94
32
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris
Defender61'
6.75
13
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Dimitrios Keramitsis Defender
6.88
22
Danijel Loncar
Danijel Loncar Defender
6.58
41
Attila Szalai
Attila Szalai Defender
6.73
3
Kellyn Acosta
Kellyn Acosta Midfielder
6.71
6
Jan Bieganski
Jan Bieganski
Midfielder46'
6.65
8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Fredrik Ulvestad Midfielder
7.01
25
M. Agger
M. Agger Midfielder
6.57
15
Hussein Ali
Hussein Ali
Defender80'
6.39
47
N. Lawa
N. Lawa Midfielder
6.52
90
Sam Greenwood
Sam Greenwood
Attacker60'
6.78
10
Filip Cuic
Filip Cuic Attacker
6.5
18
Paul Mukairu
Paul Mukairu Attacker
6.79
19
Mor Ndiaye
Mor Ndiaye
Midfielder87'
6.85

Events

2ND-HALF
90+10'
Event
Filip Cuic
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+9'
Event
Hussein Ali
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Kahveh Zahiroleslam
Header / 2nd Goal
90+5'
90+5'
Event
Leonardo Koutris
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Jan Bieganski↓ → Jan Bieganski
11th Substitution
Event
Oskar Wojcik
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
90'
87'
Event
Mor Ndiaye → Paul Mukairu
10th Substitution
Event
Oskar Wojcik
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Mateusz Praszelik → Maxime Dominguez
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Kahveh Zahiroleslam → Brahim Traoré
9th Substitution
81'
80'
Event
Hussein Ali → M. Agger
7th Substitution
Event
Dijon Kameri → Jean Batoum
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Brahim Traoré
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
66'
61'
Event
Leonardo Koutris → Léo Borges
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Sam Greenwood → N. Lawa
4th Substitution
Event
Mateusz Klich → Karol Knap
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Pau Sans → Martin Yankov
3rd Substitution
58'
46'
Event
Jan Bieganski → Kellyn Acosta
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+6'
Event
Léo Borges
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
18'
Event
Kellyn Acosta
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw underscores Cracovia's defensive grit post-red card, neutralizing Pogoń's superior status despite 45% possession. Halftime 0-1 scoreline shifted as Cracovia equalized under pressure, but numerical inferiority limited further threats. Absent xG, analysis relies on possession and events, revealing Pogoń's moderate deviation from expected dominance. Market alignment confirms the result's reasonableness, with efficiency stable. Red card distortion warped dynamics, preventing a decisive win. Both teams exposed frailties—Cracovia in discipline, Pogoń in finishing—suggesting mid-table implications without major momentum shift.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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