Athletic Club vs Valencia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
San Mamés Barria Sun, 10 May - 2:15 PM
La Liga
Athletic Club ATH
Versus
Valencia VAL
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 2:15 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Athletic Club hosts Valencia at San Mamés Barria in a La Liga regular season encounter for the 2025/2026 campaign. The home team occupies 8th place, four spots above Valencia in 12th, reflecting their superior standing. Athletic boasts a power score of 78.66 to Valencia's 77.34, granting a 1.3-point advantage that underscores their edge as the stronger side. Form scores further favor the Basques at 21.44 versus 14.33, indicating better recent momentum despite lacking specific last outing details. Home advantage at the vibrant San Mamés amplifies Athletic's structured approach, where they leverage crowd energy for pressing and quick recoveries. Valencia faces an uphill battle, needing to disrupt transitions and capitalize on counters. Set-piece data remains limited with low confidence and proxy metrics, while efficiency stats are unavailable, shifting focus to overall execution. Midfield control will likely determine the flow, testing both sides' adaptability in this balanced yet home-tilted fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Athletic Club holds a 1.3-point power advantage over Valencia with scores of 78.66 to 77.34.
  • Form: Athletic Club's form score of 21.44 surpasses Valencia's 14.33.
  • Squad: Athletic Club ranks 8th in La Liga, ahead of 12th-placed Valencia.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play relies on midfield battles given limited specific metrics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with proxy data used for Athletic Club and Valencia.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable as set piece metadata indicates no xG add-on.
  • Market: Athletic Club 54.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26% (Δ+0%) | Valencia 19.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Athletic Club E. Valverde
E. Valverde
VS
Valencia C. Corberán Vallet
C. Corberán Vallet
1.23
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 88 L
Osasuna Rank: 78 W
Villarreal Rank: 84 L
Getafe Rank: 76 L
Real Betis Rank: 82 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 L
Girona Rank: 76 W
Mallorca Rank: 76 D
Elche Rank: 75 L
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 L
Sevilla Rank: 73 W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 15 - 16
16
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Athletic Club
54.46%
Draw
26.02%
Away Valencia
19.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78.66
77.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Athletic Club
Valencia
Power Score
78.66
77.34
League Position
8
12
Global Rank
72
88

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Athletic Club — Opponent-weighted form score
Valencia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Athletic Club Valencia

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 47 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Athletic Club ATH Home
47 matches
Valencia VAL Away
Match Record
16
Wins
16
15
Draws
15
16
Losses
16
Goals
56
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
56
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:48:41+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
U. Simón Mendibil
1 U. Simón Mendibil
A. Gorosabel Espinosa
2 A. Gorosabel Espinosa
Y. Álvarez López
5 Y. Álvarez López
A. Laporte
14 A. Laporte
Y. Berchiche Izeta
17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
A. Rego Mora
30 A. Rego Mora
M. Jauregizar Alboniga
18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
I. Williams Arthuer
9 I. Williams Arthuer
U. Gómez Etxebarria
20 U. Gómez Etxebarria
N. Williams Arthuer
10 N. Williams Arthuer
G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
S. Dimitrievski
1 S. Dimitrievski
J. Gayá Peña
14 J. Gayá Peña
J. García Vayá
18 J. García Vayá
C. Tárrega Requeni
5 C. Tárrega Requeni
R. Saravia
20 R. Saravia
F. Ugrinic
23 F. Ugrinic
G. Rodríguez
2 G. Rodríguez
J. Guerra Moreno
8 J. Guerra Moreno
L. Rioja González
11 L. Rioja González
L. Ramazani
17 L. Ramazani
U. Sadiq Mesbah
6 U. Sadiq Mesbah

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
San Mamés Barria
Capacity :
53289
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
6.78
11
Gorka Guruzeta
Gorka Guruzeta Centre Forward
6.93
9
Iñaki Williams
Iñaki Williams Right Wing
6.64
10
Nico Williams
Nico Williams Left Wing
6.9
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Left Back
6.88
20
Unai Gómez
Unai Gómez Attacking Midfield
6.51
30
Alejandro Rego
Alejandro Rego Defensive Midfield
6.67
5
Yeray Álvarez
Yeray Álvarez Right Back
6.74
2
Andoni Gorosabel
Andoni Gorosabel Right Back
6.6
17
Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche Left Back
6.94
18
Mikel Jauregizar
Mikel Jauregizar Defensive Midfield
6.81

Starting XI ▼

1
Stole Dimitrievski
Stole Dimitrievski Goalkeeper
6.85
11
Luis Rioja
Luis Rioja Midfielder
6.82
23
Filip Ugrinic
Filip Ugrinic Midfielder
6.87
6
Umar Sadiq
Umar Sadiq Attacker
6.52
17
Largie Ramazani
Largie Ramazani Attacker
6.83
8
Javi Guerra
Javi Guerra Central Midfield
6.69
2
Guido Rodríguez
Guido Rodríguez Central Midfield
6.96
5
César Tárrega
César Tárrega Right Back
6.72
14
José Gayà
José Gayà Left Back
6.69
18
Pepelu
Pepelu Left Back
6.95
20
Renzo Saravia
Renzo Saravia Right Back
6.5

CONCLUSION

Athletic Club enters as favorites, powered by a slight edge in strength and form, plus home support at San Mamés Barria. Their higher league position and momentum position them to control possession and press effectively against a Valencia side struggling for consistency. While set pieces and efficiency lack depth in data, the Basques' superior scores suggest better execution potential. Valencia must excel in transitions to exploit gaps, but Athletic's structure likely prevails in key moments. Expect a competitive match where home resilience tips the scales, rewarding the 8th-placed side with vital points in the 2025/2026 La Liga race.

Athletic Club vs Valencia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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