Atalanta vs Genoa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Gewiss Stadium Tomorrow - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Atalanta ATA
Versus
Genoa GEN
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 6:45 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

Atalanta vs Genoa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Atalanta host Genoa in Serie A (Regular Season) at Gewiss Stadium. Domestically, Atalanta sit 7th in the table while Genoa are 14th. Power ranking favours Atalanta by 5.8 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Atalanta possesses a 5.8-point power advantage (25.44 vs 19.64) and sits 7th compared to Genoa's 14th in Serie A.
  • Form: Atalanta's form score of 15.44 exceeds Genoa's 13.56.
  • Squad: Squad details unavailable, but Atalanta rated as stronger overall.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics not available for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data unavailable in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with proxy data used for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Atalanta 60% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.6% (Δ+0%) | Genoa 16.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
VS
Genoa D. De Rossi
D. De Rossi
1.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cagliari Rank: L
Roma Rank: D
Juventus Rank: L
Lecce Rank: W
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Inter Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Como Rank: L
Pisa Rank: W
Sassuolo Rank: W
Juventus Rank: L
Udinese Rank: L
Hellas Verona Rank: W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 11 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atalanta
59.99%
Draw
23.56%
Away Genoa
16.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.44
19.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atalanta
Genoa
Power Score
25.44
19.64
League Position
7
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atalanta Genoa

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 34 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atalanta ATA Home
34 matches
Genoa GEN Away
Match Record
16
Wins
7
11
Draws
11
7
Losses
16
Goals
59
Goals Scored
38
38
Goals Conceded
59
+21
Goal Difference
-21
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-30T01:04:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
M. Carnesecchi
Italy
29 M. Carnesecchi
G. Scalvini
Italy
42 G. Scalvini
B. Djimsiti
Albania
19 B. Djimsiti
S. Kolašinac
Bosnia and Herzegovina
23 S. Kolašinac
R. Bellanova
Italy
16 R. Bellanova
M. de Roon
Netherlands
15 M. de Roon
M. Pašalić
Croatia
8 M. Pašalić
D. Zappacosta
Italy
77 D. Zappacosta
C. De Ketelaere
Belgium
17 C. De Ketelaere
G. Raspadori
Italy
18 G. Raspadori
G. Scamacca
Italy
9 G. Scamacca
N. Leali
Italy
1 N. Leali
J. Vásquez Ibarra
Mexico
22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
S. Otoa
Denmark
34 S. Otoa
L. Skiri Oestigaard
Norway
5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
A. Marcandalli
Italy
27 A. Marcandalli
M. Ellertsson
Iceland
77 M. Ellertsson
A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
Brazil
4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
M. Frendrup
Denmark
32 M. Frendrup
S. Sabelli
Italy
20 S. Sabelli
V. Carvalho Oliveira
Portugal
9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
J. Ekhator
Nigeria
21 J. Ekhator

General Information

Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Gewiss Stadium
Capacity
23439
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ivano Pezzuto
Valerio Colarossi
Daisuke Emanuele Yoshikawa
Niccolò Turrini

Lineup

Referee : Ivano Pezzuto

Starting XI ▼

29
Marco Carnesecchi
Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper
7.07
16
Raoul Bellanova
Raoul Bellanova Defender
6.8
19
Berat Djimsiti
Berat Djimsiti Defender
6.95
23
Sead Kolasinac
Sead Kolasinac Defender
6.6
42
Giorgio Scalvini
Giorgio Scalvini Defender
7
77
Davide Zappacosta
Davide Zappacosta Defender
6.86
8
Mario Pašalić
Mario Pašalić Midfielder
7
15
Marten de Roon
Marten de Roon Midfielder
6.95
17
Charles De Ketelaere
Charles De Ketelaere Midfielder
7.18
18
Giacomo Raspadori
Giacomo Raspadori Midfielder
7.05
9
Gianluca Scamacca
Gianluca Scamacca Attacker
7.03
Referee : Ivano Pezzuto

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicola Leali
Nicola Leali Goalkeeper
6.65
5
Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård Defender
7.09
22
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez Defender
6.84
27
Alessandro Marcandalli
Alessandro Marcandalli Defender
6.56
34
Sebastian Otoa
Sebastian Otoa Defender
6.78
4
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho Midfielder
6.68
20
Stefano Sabelli
Stefano Sabelli Midfielder
6.63
32
Morten Frendrup
Morten Frendrup Midfielder
6.87
77
Mikael Egill Ellertsson
Mikael Egill Ellertsson Midfielder
6.59
9
Vitinha
Vitinha Attacker
6.77
21
Jeff Ekhator
Jeff Ekhator Attacker
6.61

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Atalanta holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Atalanta a 5.8-point edge. External projection is Atalanta 59.4%, draw 23.8%, and Genoa 16.8%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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