Hull City vs Middlesbrough Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Wembley Stadium Sat, 23 May - 2:30 PM
Championship
Hull City HUL
1 Winner 0
Middlesbrough MID
Full Time Sat, 23 May 2:30 PM
Final
Oliver McBurnie - 90+5'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Hull City secured a 1-0 victory over Middlesbrough in a match that remained level at halftime with a 0-0 scoreline. Middlesbrough entered as the stronger side and controlled 68 percent of possession compared to Hull City's 32 percent. Despite this imbalance the home side claimed the win through a single goal. No red cards were issued to either team during the contest. Pre-match indicators showed a significant deviation level associated with Hull City at 77.3 percent. The outcome proved inconsistent with broader expectations given the possession split and team strength assessment. Efficiency metrics aligned with observed performance patterns throughout the fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hull City won despite holding only 32 percent possession against Middlesbrough.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics remained in line with observed performance patterns.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The result did not align with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals values were recorded for either side.
  • Event impact: The solitary goal proved decisive in a match level at 0-0 after halftime.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Gillett

Australia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Davies

1st Assistant

England

M. Salisbury

4th Official

England

S. Meredith

2nd Assistant

England

League averages

Championship Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.34
Yellow cards / match 3.9
Red cards / match 0.07
Penalties / match 0.24
Hull City S. Jakirović
S. Jakirović
VS
Middlesbrough K. Hellberg
K. Hellberg
1.63
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.59
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Millwall Rank: 76 W
Millwall Rank: 76 D
Norwich City Rank: 73 W
Charlton Athletic Rank: 66 L
Leicester City Rank: 67 D
Birmingham City Rank: 72 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Southampton Rank: 79 L
Southampton Rank: 79 D
Wrexham Rank: 72 D
Watford Rank: 64 W
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 55 W
Ipswich Town Rank: 77 D
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 5 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hull City
22.73%
Draw
27.59%
Away Middlesbrough
49.68%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hull City
-72.5%
Draw
+23.01%
Middlesbrough
+49.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.64
73.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hull City
Middlesbrough
Power Score
72.64
73.28
League Position
6
5
Global Rank
151
144

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hull City — Opponent-weighted form score
Middlesbrough — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hull City Middlesbrough

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hull City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Middlesbrough

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hull City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Middlesbrough
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.50
22.87
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.87
32.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hull City +0.98 Efficiency Index
vs
Middlesbrough -0.98 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hull City
Middlesbrough
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hull City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Middlesbrough
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hull City Middlesbrough
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hull City Middlesbrough
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hull City
Middlesbrough
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hull City
vs
Middlesbrough
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hull City Middlesbrough
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hull City 0.32
Middlesbrough 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hull City Middlesbrough
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hull City 0.00
Middlesbrough 0.04
Hull City
Middlesbrough
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MID had peak pressure around 42'.
  • MID started the game with stronger pressure.
HUL Pressure MID Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MID reached the top pressure at 42' (84.61).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hull City HUL Home
31 matches
Middlesbrough MID Away
Match Record
11
Wins
15
5
Draws
5
15
Losses
11
Goals
42
Goals Scored
51
51
Goals Conceded
42
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:02:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
I. Pandur
Croatia
1 I. Pandur
O. Ibidapo Ajayi
Nigeria
6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
J. Egan
Republic of Ireland
15 J. Egan
C. Hughes
England
4 C. Hughes
L. Coyle
Substitution
England
2 L. Coyle
R. Slater
Substitution
England
27 R. Slater
M. Crooks
England
25 M. Crooks
R. Giles
Substitution
England
3 R. Giles
M. Belloumi
Substitution
Algeria
10 M. Belloumi
L. Millar
Substitution
Canada
7 L. Millar
O. McBurnie
Scotland
9 O. McBurnie
Pitch
S. Brynn
England
31 S. Brynn
A. Malanda
France
29 A. Malanda
D. Fry
England
6 D. Fry
L. Ayling
England
12 L. Ayling
M. Targett
Substitution
England
3 M. Targett
A. Morris
United States
18 A. Morris
A. Browne
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
16 A. Browne
C. Brittain
England
2 C. Brittain
R. McGree
Substitution
Australia
8 R. McGree
M. Whittaker
England
11 M. Whittaker
D. Strelec
Substitution
Slovakia
13 D. Strelec

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Final
Stadium :
Wembley Stadium
Capacity :
90000
Attendance :
84506
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Neil Davies
Michael Salisbury
Jarred Gillett
Steve Meredith

Statistics

Possession
HUL
37%
MID
63%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 5
28 Dangerous attacks 51
32 Possession 68
1 Corners 3
5 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Successful Dribbles 8
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
14 Throwins 29
13 Successful Headers 16
9 Dribble Attempts 16
12 Goal Kicks 7
76 Ball Safe 99
8 Goal Attempts 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Injuries 2
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

77 Attacks 117
1 Big Chances Missed 2
1 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

7 Key Passes 12
294 Passes 608
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
210 Successful Passes 526
19 Successful Long Passes 14
71 Successful Passes Percentage 87
63 Long Passes 43

Defensive

8 Interceptions 7
38 Duels Won 40
18 Tackles 10
0 Saves 1

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 27
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
6 Fouls 2

Lineup

Referee : Jarred Gillett

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivor Pandur
Ivor Pandur Goalkeeper
4
Charlie Hughes
Charlie Hughes Defender
6
Semi Ajayi
Semi Ajayi Defender
15
John Egan
John Egan Defender
2
Lewie Coyle
Lewie Coyle Midfielder
37
Patrick James Coleman McNair
Patrick James Coleman McNair
Defender90+8'
3
Ryan Giles
Ryan Giles Midfielder
13
Yu Hirakawa
Yu Hirakawa
Attacker76'
25
Matt Crooks
Matt Crooks Midfielder
27
Regan Slater
Regan Slater Midfielder
5
John Lundstram
John Lundstram
Midfielder90+8'
7
Liam Millar
Liam Millar Attacker
21
Joe Gelhardt
Joe Gelhardt
Attacker63'
9
Oliver McBurnie
Oliver McBurnie Attacker
10
Mohamed Belloumi
Mohamed Belloumi Attacker
18
Cody Drameh
Cody Drameh
Defender76'
Referee : Jarred Gillett

Starting XI ▼

31
Sol Brynn
Sol Brynn Goalkeeper
6
Dael Fry
Dael Fry Defender
12
Luke Ayling
Luke Ayling Defender
29
Adilson Malanda
Adilson Malanda Defender
2
Callum Brittain
Callum Brittain Midfielder
3
Matt Targett
Matt Targett Midfielder
44
Cruz Ibeh
Cruz Ibeh
Attacker90+7'
16
Alan Browne
Alan Browne Midfielder
45
Jeremy Sarmiento
Jeremy Sarmiento
Midfielder90+7'
18
Aidan Morris
Aidan Morris Midfielder
8
Riley McGree
Riley McGree Attacker
27
Sontje Hansen
Sontje Hansen
Attacker76'
11
Morgan Whittaker
Morgan Whittaker Attacker
13
David Strelec
David Strelec Attacker
7
Hayden Hackney
Hayden Hackney
Midfielder70'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
John Lundstram → Regan Slater
8th Substitution
90+8'
Event
Patrick James Coleman McNair → Lewie Coyle
9th Substitution
90+8'
90+7'
Event
Cruz Ibeh → Matt Targett
6th Substitution
90+7'
Event
Jeremy Sarmiento → Alan Browne
7th Substitution
Event
Oliver McBurnie
1st Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Oliver McBurnie
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
90+5'
Event
Yu Hirakawa → Ryan Giles
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Cody Drameh → Mohamed Belloumi
3rd Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Sontje Hansen → Riley McGree
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Hayden Hackney → David Strelec
2nd Substitution
Event
Joe Gelhardt → Liam Millar
1st Substitution
63'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Oliver McBurnie scores to make it 1-0.
90
Update Update
John Lundstram replaces Regan Slater.
90
Update Update
Patrick McNair comes on for Lewie Coyle.
90
Update Update
John Lundstram comes on for Regan Slater.
90
Attempt Attempt
Matty Crooks has a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Oliver McBurnie takes a left-footed shot and scores.
90
Update Update
Jeremy Sarmiento replaces Alan Browne.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oliver McBurnie receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Whittaker takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Aidan Morris takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Joe Gelhardt takes a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Update Update
Cody Drameh replaces Belloumi.
77
Attempt Attempt
Luke Ayling attempts a header but misses the shot.
76
Update Update
Sontje Hansen replaces Riley McGree.
76
Update Update
Yu Hirakawa is on, and Ryan John Giles is off.
70
Update Update
Hayden Hackney replaces David Strelec.
63
Update Update
Joe Gelhardt comes on for Liam Millar.
61
Attempt Attempt
Belloumi takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Attempt Attempt
David Strelec's right-footed shot is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Matty Crooks attempts a header but misses the shot.
48
Attempt Attempt
Dael Fry attempts a header but misses the shot.
47
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Whittaker's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
David Strelec takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Oliver McBurnie takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
42
Attempt Attempt
David Strelec takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Belloumi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Whittaker's left-footed shot is saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Alan Browne takes a shot with his head but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Ryan John Giles takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Lewie Coyle's header is saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
David Strelec takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
15
Attempt Attempt
Aidan Morris takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Whittaker's left-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Hull City claimed the three points with a narrow 1-0 result after a goalless opening period. Middlesbrough maintained the majority of possession yet failed to convert territorial control into goals. The absence of red cards allowed both sides to retain full complements for the full duration. Significant deviation from pre-match positioning was evident in the final outcome. Efficiency remained consistent with the patterns displayed on the pitch. Without expected goals figures deeper performance quantification stays limited. The single goal stood as the defining moment that separated the sides at the end of regulation time.

Hull City vs Middlesbrough preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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