Jagiellonia Białystok vs Zagłębie Lubin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Sat, 23 May - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok
1 Winner 0
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin
Full Time Sat, 23 May 3:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Afimico Pululu - 32' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Jagiellonia Białystok hosted Zagłębie Lubin in a match that concluded with a narrow 1-0 home victory. The stronger side opened the scoring before the interval to lead 1-0 at halftime and maintained that advantage throughout the second period. Possession favored the hosts at 55 percent against the visitors 45 percent. No red cards were shown to either side during the contest. The outcome proved consistent with the pre-match assessment of the stronger team prevailing. Minimal deviation from expectations was recorded at 3.9 percent. The single goal proved sufficient to secure all three points for Jagiellonia Białystok.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The contest recorded minimal structural deviation of 3.9 percent from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency levels stayed in line with expectations across both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals information remained unavailable for outcome alignment review.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned fully with market expectations for the stronger side.
  • xG expectations: Absence of xG metrics prevented direct comparison to performance indicators.
  • Event impact: The first-half goal at the 1-0 halftime score decided the 1-0 match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards occurred and therefore created no match distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

W. Myć

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Sokolnicki

1st Assistant

Poland

M. Majewski

2nd Assistant

Poland

M. Jenda

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.3
Yellow cards / match 3.82
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.23
Jagiellonia Białystok A. Siemieniec
A. Siemieniec
VS
Zagłębie Lubin L. Ojrzynski
L. Ojrzynski
1.37
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Katowice Rank: 65 D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 63 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 68 L
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 61 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 L
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 68 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 D
Nieciecza Rank: 53 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 67 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 W
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 9 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Jagiellonia Białystok
96.07%
Draw
3.73%
Away Zagłębie Lubin
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67
61.77
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Jagiellonia Białystok
Zagłębie Lubin
Power Score
67
61.77
League Position
3
7
Global Rank
281
424

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Jagiellonia Białystok Zagłębie Lubin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zagłębie Lubin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zagłębie Lubin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.55
42.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.56
31.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Jagiellonia Białystok -1.01 Efficiency Index
vs
Zagłębie Lubin +1.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Zagłębie Lubin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zagłębie Lubin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Jagiellonia Białystok Zagłębie Lubin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Jagiellonia Białystok Zagłębie Lubin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Zagłębie Lubin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Jagiellonia Białystok
vs
Zagłębie Lubin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Jagiellonia Białystok Zagłębie Lubin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.21
Zagłębie Lubin 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Jagiellonia Białystok Zagłębie Lubin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.00
Zagłębie Lubin 0.01
Jagiellonia Białystok
Zagłębie Lubin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Jagiellonia Białystok had peak pressure around 33'.
  • Zagłębie Lubin started the game with stronger pressure.
Jagiellonia Białystok Pressure Zagłębie Lubin Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Jagiellonia Białystok reached the top pressure at 33' (95.38).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Home
36 matches
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Away
Match Record
15
Wins
12
9
Draws
9
12
Losses
15
Goals
46
Goals Scored
43
43
Goals Conceded
46
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:02:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
S. Abramowicz
Poland
50 S. Abramowicz
N. Wojtuszek
Poland
15 N. Wojtuszek
B. Cardoso Vital
Substitution
Portugal
13 B. Cardoso Vital
Y. Kobayashi
Japan
4 Y. Kobayashi
G. Serrão Montóia
Substitution
Portugal
23 G. Serrão Montóia
T. Romanczuk
Poland
6 T. Romanczuk
B. Mazurek
Poland
86 B. Mazurek
A. Pozo Pozo
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Pozo Pozo
J. Imaz Ballesté
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Imaz Ballesté
K. Szmyt
Poland
77 K. Szmyt
A. Pululu
Substitution
France
10 A. Pululu
Pitch
J. Burić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 J. Burić
J. Čorluka
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
16 J. Čorluka
D. Michalski
Poland
4 D. Michalski
M. Nalepa
Poland
25 M. Nalepa
I. Orlikowski
Substitution
Poland
31 I. Orlikowski
M. Grzybek
Substitution
Poland
13 M. Grzybek
M. Reguła
Poland
44 M. Reguła
F. Kocaba
Poland
39 F. Kocaba
D. Dąbrowski
Substitution
Poland
8 D. Dąbrowski
J. Ligocki
Substitution
Poland
84 J. Ligocki
L. Szabo
Hungary
17 L. Szabo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Miejski
Capacity :
22372
Attendance :
19475
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Wojciech Myć
Pawel Sokolnicki
Maciej Majewski
Mateusz Jenda

Statistics

Possession
Jagiellonia Białystok
54%
Zagłębie Lubin
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 5
67 Dangerous attacks 63
55 Possession 45
6 Corners 1
15 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Injuries 1
20 Dribble Attempts 7
73 Ball Safe 62
9 Throwins 14
65 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
13 Successful Dribbles 5
8 Goal Attempts 12
1 Penalties 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5
9 Goal Kicks 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
89 Attacks 79

Possession

21 Successful Long Passes 24
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
81 Successful Passes Percentage 77
55 Long Passes 57
320 Successful Passes 236
394 Passes 307
11 Key Passes 12

Defensive

52 Duels Won 47
5 Saves 3
6 Interceptions 4
10 Tackles 13

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 9
19 Total Crosses 23

Discipline

15 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI ▼

50
Slawomir Abramowicz
Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper
4
Yuki Kobayashi
Yuki Kobayashi Defender
13
Bernardo Vital
Bernardo Vital Defender
44
Apostolos Konstantopoulos
Apostolos Konstantopoulos
Defender76'
15
Norbert Wojtuszek
Norbert Wojtuszek Defender
23
Guilherme Montóia
Guilherme Montóia Defender
27
Bartlomiej Wdowik
Bartlomiej Wdowik
Defender63'
6
Taras Romanczuk
Taras Romanczuk Midfielder
7
Álex Pozo
Álex Pozo Midfielder
19
Matías Nahuel
Matías Nahuel
Midfielder84'
11
Jesús Imaz
Jesús Imaz Midfielder
85
Eryk Kozlowski
Eryk Kozlowski
Midfielder84'
77
Kajetan Szmyt
Kajetan Szmyt Midfielder
86
Bartosz Mazurek
Bartosz Mazurek Midfielder
10
Afimico Pululu
Afimico Pululu Attacker
14
Samed Bazdar
Samed Bazdar
Attacker84'
Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI ▼

1
Jasmin Buric
Jasmin Buric Goalkeeper
4
Damian Michalski
Damian Michalski Defender
13
Mateusz Grzybek
Mateusz Grzybek Defender
35
Luka Lucic
Luka Lucic
Defender46'
16
Josip Corluka
Josip Corluka Defender
9
Michalis Kosidis
Michalis Kosidis
Attacker84'
25
Michal Nalepa
Michal Nalepa Defender
31
Igor Orlikowski
Igor Orlikowski Defender
19
Jakub Sypek
Jakub Sypek
Midfielder72'
8
Damian Dabrowski
Damian Dabrowski Midfielder
20
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Midfielder72'
39
Filip Kocaba
Filip Kocaba Midfielder
44
Marcel Regula
Marcel Regula Midfielder
84
Jakub Ligocki
Jakub Ligocki Midfielder
18
Adam Radwanski
Adam Radwanski
Midfielder46'
17
Levente Szabó
Levente Szabó Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Michal Nalepa
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Samed Bazdar → Afimico Pululu
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Eryk Kozlowski → Jesús Imaz
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Matías Nahuel → Álex Pozo
10th Substitution
84'
84'
Event
Michalis Kosidis → Josip Corluka
8th Substitution
Event
Apostolos Konstantopoulos → Bernardo Vital
6th Substitution
76'
75'
Event
Marcel Regula
GoalkeeperSave
72'
Event
Jakub Sypek → Igor Orlikowski
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Mateusz Dziewiatowski → Damian Dabrowski
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Adam Radwanski
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Bartlomiej Wdowik → Guilherme Montóia
3rd Substitution
63'
46'
Event
Adam Radwanski → Jakub Ligocki
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Luka Lucic → Mateusz Grzybek
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Guilherme Montóia
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
39'
Event
Afimico Pululu
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
32'
29'
Event
Igor Orlikowski
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

87
Attempt Attempt
Kajetan Szmyt takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Matias Nahuel Leiva's left-footed shot is blocked.
85
Update Update
Samed Bazdar replaces Afimico Pululu.
84
Update Update
Michalis Kosidis comes on for Josip Corluka.
84
Update Update
Matias Nahuel Leiva comes on for Alejandro Pozo.
84
Substitution Substitution
Kozlowski is substituted for Jesus Imaz Balleste.
81
Attempt Attempt
Adam Radwanski takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Levente Szabo's right-footed shot is blocked.
76
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Apostolos Konstantopoulos comes on for Bernardo Vital.
75
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula has his penalty saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula's right-footed shot is saved.
72
Substitution Substitution
Jakub Sypek is substituted on for Igor Orlikowski.
72
Update Update
Mateusz Dziewiatowski replaces Damian Dabrowski.
71
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a left-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Adam Radwanski takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Afimico Pululu takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
63
Update Update
Bartlomiej Wdowik comes on for Guilherme Montoia.
58
Attempt Attempt
Igor Orlikowski's right-footed shot is blocked.
57
Update Update
Michal Nalepa's header is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Levente Szabo takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
55
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Damian Dabrowski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Adam Radwanski is replaced by Jakub Ligocki.
46
Update Update
Luka Lucic is on, and Mateusz Grzybek is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Levente Szabo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jakub Ligocki takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Guilherme Montoia receives a yellow card.
37
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Afimico Pululu scores from the penalty spot to make it 1-0.
32
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Afimico Pululu scores with a left-footed shot.
28
Attempt Attempt
Levente Szabo's right-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Levente Szabo's right-footed shot is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Mazurek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Levente Szabo's left-footed shot is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
25
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Mazurek takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Bernardo Vital takes a header shot but misses.
15
Update Update
Bartosz Mazurek's header is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Grzybek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Levente Szabo attempts a header but misses the shot.

CONCLUSION

Jagiellonia Białystok claimed a hard-fought 1-0 win over Zagłębie Lubin thanks to an early strike that stood as the only goal. The hosts controlled more of the ball yet both sides created limited clear opportunities after the break. Defensive discipline remained high with no dismissals recorded on either team. The narrow margin reflected the tight nature of the encounter from start to finish. Jagiellonia extended their strong home form while Zagłębie struggled to convert possession into meaningful threats. Overall the result mirrored the pre-match view of the home side as favorites. The clean sheet and efficient finishing allowed the hosts to collect maximum points in a low-scoring affair that tested patience and organization for both squads.

Jagiellonia Białystok vs Zagłębie Lubin preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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