Real Madrid vs Athletic Club Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu Sat, 23 May - 7:00 PM
La Liga
Real Madrid RMA
4 Winner 2
Athletic Club ATH
Full Time Sat, 23 May 7:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Jude Bellingham - 41'
Gonzalo García - 12'
Goal
|
Goal
Urko Izeta - 90+1'
Gorka Guruzeta - 45+1'

CONTEXT

Real Madrid defeated Athletic Club 4-2 in a dominant home performance that featured a 2-1 halftime lead. The hosts controlled the game with 74 percent possession against their visitors 26 percent share. Real Madrid as the stronger side secured the win in line with expectations despite a significant 39.3 percent deviation recorded for the home team. No red cards were issued to either side throughout the contest. The second half saw Real Madrid extend their advantage after the interval break. Athletic Club managed to find the net twice but could not close the gap sufficiently. This result highlighted the home sides ability to maintain control and convert opportunities effectively on the day.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Madrid recorded a significant structural deviation of 39.3 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to missing metrics.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true for the final outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations went unverified without available data.
  • Event impact: Event impact produced a 4-2 home victory after a 2-1 halftime score.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role with zero dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Martínez Munuera

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Martínez Munuera

2nd Assistant

Spain

J. Gutiérrez

4th Official

Argentina

D. Barbero Sevilla

1st Assistant

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.04
Yellow cards / match 4.14
Red cards / match 0.25
Penalties / match 0.29
Real Madrid Á. Arbeloa Coca
Á. Arbeloa Coca
VS
Athletic Club E. Valverde
E. Valverde
2.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sevilla Rank: 75 W
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 W
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 L
Espanyol Rank: 73 W
Real Betis Rank: 82 D
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 77 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 D
Espanyol Rank: 73 L
Valencia Rank: 77 L
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 L
Osasuna Rank: 77 W
34
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
34 - 6 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Madrid
60.71%
Draw
20.78%
Away Athletic Club
18.52%

Movement

Changes since opening
Real Madrid
-37.13%
Draw
+18.86%
Athletic Club
+18.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
92.7
76.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Madrid
Athletic Club
Power Score
92.7
76.97
League Position
2
12
Global Rank
6
88

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Athletic Club — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Madrid Athletic Club

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Athletic Club

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Athletic Club
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Madrid Athletic Club
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Madrid Athletic Club
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Madrid
Athletic Club
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Real Madrid
vs
Athletic Club
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Real Madrid Athletic Club
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Real Madrid 0.00
Athletic Club 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Real Madrid Athletic Club
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Real Madrid 0.00
Athletic Club 0.00
Real Madrid
Athletic Club
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RMA had peak pressure around 14'.
  • RMA started the game with stronger pressure.
RMA Pressure ATH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RMA reached the top pressure at 14' (67.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 44 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Madrid RMA Home
44 matches
Athletic Club ATH Away
Match Record
34
Wins
4
6
Draws
6
4
Losses
34
Goals
100
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
100
+72
Goal Difference
-72

Data last updated: 2026-05-23T18:31:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. Courtois
Belgium
1 T. Courtois
D. Carvajal Ramos
Substitution
Spain
2 D. Carvajal Ramos
R. Asencio del Rosario
Spain
17 R. Asencio del Rosario
D. Olatukunbo Alaba
Substitution
Austria
4 D. Olatukunbo Alaba
A. Carreras
Spain
18 A. Carreras
F. Mastantuono
Substitution
Argentina
30 F. Mastantuono
T. Pitarch Pinar
45 T. Pitarch Pinar
F. Valverde Dipetta
Uruguay
8 F. Valverde Dipetta
J. Bellingham
Substitution
England
5 J. Bellingham
G. García Torres
Substitution
Spain
16 G. García Torres
K. Mbappé
France
10 K. Mbappé
Pitch
?. Padilla Pérez
Spain
27 ?. Padilla Pérez
A. Boiro Boiro
Senegal
19 A. Boiro Boiro
A. Paredes Casamichana
Spain
4 A. Paredes Casamichana
Y. Álvarez López
Substitution
Spain
5 Y. Álvarez López
D. Vivian Moreno
Spain
3 D. Vivian Moreno
M. Jauregizar Alboniga
Substitution
Spain
18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
Substitution
Spain
16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
R. Navarro Muñoz
Spain
23 R. Navarro Muñoz
U. Gómez Etxebarria
Substitution
Spain
20 U. Gómez Etxebarria
I. Williams Arthuer
Ghana
9 I. Williams Arthuer
G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Capacity :
84744
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Juan Martínez Munuera
Miguel Martínez Munuera
José Gutiérrez
Diego Barbero Sevilla

Statistics

Possession
RMA
69%
ATH
31%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 3
0 Shots 1
44 Dangerous attacks 18
74 Possession 26
2 Corners 1
20 Free kicks 6
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 78
7 Goal Kicks 6
8 Successful Dribbles 7
12 Dribble Attempts 9
6 Successful Headers 7
10 Throwins 9
3 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
91 Attacks 83

Possession

27 Successful Long Passes 12
66 Successful Long Passes Percentage 26
676 Successful Passes 176
8 Key Passes 7
41 Long Passes 47
746 Passes 254
91 Successful Passes Percentage 69

Defensive

36 Duels Won 27
7 Interceptions 13
2 Tackles 7
0 Saves 4

Build-up

0 Accurate Crosses 6
5 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

6 Fouls 20
7 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Juan Martínez Munuera

Starting XI ▼

1
Thibaut Courtois
Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeper
6.85
2
Daniel Carvajal
Daniel Carvajal Defender
6.72
51
Manuel Serrano Salazar
Manuel Serrano Salazar
Defender84'
4
David Alaba
David Alaba Defender
6.63
24
Dean Huijsen
Dean Huijsen
Defender70'
7.07
17
Raúl Asencio
Raúl Asencio Defender
6.84
18
Álvaro Carreras
Álvaro Carreras Defender
7.12
5
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham Midfielder
7.32
19
Dani Ceballos
Dani Ceballos
Midfielder74'
6.73
8
Federico Valverde
Federico Valverde Midfielder
7.34
30
Franco Mastantuono
Franco Mastantuono Midfielder
6.77
21
Brahim Díaz
Brahim Díaz
Midfielder74'
6.86
45
Thiago Pitarch
Thiago Pitarch Midfielder
6.48
10
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé Attacker
7.64
16
Gonzalo García
Gonzalo García Attacker
6.72
15
Arda Güler
Arda Güler
Midfielder74'
7.38
Referee : Juan Martínez Munuera

Starting XI ▼

27
Álex Padilla
Álex Padilla Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Dani Vivian
Dani Vivian Defender
6.7
4
Aitor Paredes
Aitor Paredes Defender
6.81
5
Yeray Álvarez
Yeray Álvarez Defender
6.68
2
Andoni Gorosabel
Andoni Gorosabel
Defender46'
6.63
19
Adama Boiro
Adama Boiro Defender
6.53
9
Iñaki Williams
Iñaki Williams Midfielder
6.66
16
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta Midfielder
6.87
15
Iñigo Lekue
Iñigo Lekue
Defender60'
6.09
18
Mikel Jauregizar
Mikel Jauregizar Midfielder
6.79
6
Mikel Vesga
Mikel Vesga
Midfielder85'
6.56
20
Unai Gómez
Unai Gómez Midfielder
6.54
30
Alejandro Rego
Alejandro Rego
Midfielder60'
6.66
23
Robert Navarro
Robert Navarro Midfielder
6.7
11
Gorka Guruzeta
Gorka Guruzeta Attacker
6.94
25
Urko Izeta
Urko Izeta
Attacker74'
6.53

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Urko Izeta
Header / 6th Goal
Event
Brahim Díaz
Goal disallowed
89'
Event
Brahim Díaz
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
88'
85'
Event
Mikel Vesga → Mikel Jauregizar
10th Substitution
Event
Manuel Serrano Salazar → Daniel Carvajal 
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Arda Güler → Gonzalo García
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Dani Ceballos → Jude Bellingham
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Brahim Díaz → Franco Mastantuono
6th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Urko Izeta → Gorka Guruzeta
8th Substitution
Event
Dean Huijsen → David Alaba
4th Substitution
70'
60'
Event
Iñigo Lekue → Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Alejandro Rego → Unai Gómez
3rd Substitution
Event
Kylian Mbappé
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
51'
46'
Event
Andoni Gorosabel → Yeray Álvarez
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Gorka Guruzeta
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Jude Bellingham
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
41'
Event
Jude Bellingham
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
20'
Event
Gonzalo García
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
12'
Event
Thiago Pitarch
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
3'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Urko Izeta scores with a header.
89
Update Update
VAR decision results in the cancellation of Brahim Diaz's goal.
88
Attempt Attempt
Brahim Diaz scores with a left-footed shot.
87
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Federico Valverde Dipetta takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Update Update
Mikel Vesga comes on for Mikel Jauregizar.
82
Update Update
Manuel Serrano replaces Daniel Carvajal Ramos.
80
Attempt Attempt
Urko Izeta's right-footed shot is blocked.
74
Update Update
Daniel Ceballos Fernandez replaces Jude Bellingham.
74
Substitution Substitution
Brahim Diaz is substituted for Franco Mastantuono.
74
Update Update
Arda Guler comes on for Gonzalo Garcia Torres.
74
Update Update
Urko Izeta comes on for Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez.
70
Update Update
Dean Huijsen replaces David Alaba.
63
Attempt Attempt
Adama Boiro takes a left-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappe's left-footed shot is saved.
60
Update Update
Inigo Lekue Martinez comes on for Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria.
60
Update Update
Alejandro Rego replaces Unai Gomez.
57
Attempt Attempt
Jude Bellingham takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez attempts a header but misses the shot.
56
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappe takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappe takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
50
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappe takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
David Alaba takes a left-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Robert Navarro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Gorosabel is on, and Yeray Alvarez Lopez is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Inaki Williams Dannis.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jude Bellingham scores, making it 2-0.
41
Attempt Attempt
Jude Bellingham scores with a left-footed shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
Thiago Pitarch Pinar takes a left-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez takes a header shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Thiago Pitarch Pinar takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jude Bellingham receives a yellow card.
12
Attempt Attempt
Gonzalo Garcia Torres takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
3
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thiago Pitarch Pinar receives a yellow card.
3
Attempt Attempt
Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Real Madrid delivered a composed display to overcome Athletic Club and claim a 4-2 victory that reflected their overall superiority. The home side built a solid platform at the break before adding further goals to seal the points. Possession dominance allowed them to dictate tempo and limit clear chances for the opposition. Athletic Club showed resilience in attack yet lacked the sustained pressure needed to threaten a comeback. The absence of any dismissals kept the contest balanced in terms of personnel throughout. This performance reinforced Real Madrid status as the stronger outfit on the day while highlighting areas for the visitors to address in future fixtures. Overall the result provided a clear statement of intent from the winners.

Real Madrid vs Athletic Club preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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