Pisa vs Napoli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani Sun, 17 May - 10:00 AM
Serie A
Pisa PIS
0 Winner 3
Napoli NAP
Full Time Sun, 17 May 10:00 AM
Round 37 Regular Season
|
Goal
Rasmus Højlund - 90+2'
Amir Rrahmani  - 27'
Scott McTominay - 21'

CONTEXT

Napoli delivered a commanding performance to defeat Pisa 0-3 on the road. The visitors established a 0-2 halftime lead and maintained control throughout the second period to secure the three-goal margin. Pisa managed just 24 percent possession and created 0.7 expected goals while Napoli generated 1.11 expected goals. The result proved consistent with the underlying numbers and reflected the stronger side's superiority. No red cards were shown to either team. Napoli's early goals shaped the contest and limited Pisa's opportunities to respond. The final scoreline of 0-3 accurately captured the balance of play and chance creation on the day.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Napoli recorded a significant 34.3 percent structural deviation as the stronger team.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger side's overall performance.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome aligned with the expected goals differential of -0.41.
  • Market alignment: The result stayed aligned with expectations for the stronger team Napoli.
  • xG expectations: Pisa posted 0.7 xG against Napoli's 1.11 xG across the full match.
  • Event impact: Napoli's two first-half goals shaped the 0-3 final scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued and produced no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Fourneau

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Preti

1st Assistant

Italy

S. Biffi

2nd Assistant

Italy

S. Galipò

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.85
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.17
Pisa O. Hiljemark
O. Hiljemark
VS
Napoli A. Conte
A. Conte
0.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cremonese Rank: 67 L
Lecce Rank: 68 L
Parma Rank: 72 L
Genoa Rank: 74 L
Roma Rank: 86 L
Torino Rank: 74 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: 78 L
Como Rank: 83 D
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Lazio Rank: 80 L
Parma Rank: 72 D
AC Milan Rank: 84 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Pisa
12.22%
Draw
22.04%
Away Napoli
65.74%

Movement

Changes since opening
Pisa
+11.98%
Draw
+20.12%
Napoli
-32.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.97
85.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pisa
Napoli
Power Score
52.97
85.21
League Position
20
2
Global Rank
425
33

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Pisa — Opponent-weighted form score
Napoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pisa Napoli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Pisa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Napoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Pisa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Napoli
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.21
16.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.25
20.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Pisa +0.40 Efficiency Index
vs
Napoli -0.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Pisa
Napoli
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Pisa
vs
Napoli
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Pisa Napoli
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Pisa Napoli
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Pisa
Napoli
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Pisa
vs
Napoli
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Pisa Napoli
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Pisa 0.24
Napoli 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Pisa Napoli
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Pisa 0.06
Napoli 0.00
Pisa
Napoli
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NAP had peak pressure around 70'.
  • NAP started the game with stronger pressure.
PIS Pressure NAP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NAP reached the top pressure at 70' (70.85).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pisa PIS Home
2 matches
Napoli NAP Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
3
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:58:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
A. Šemper
Croatia
1 A. Šemper
A. Calabresi
Substitution
Italy
33 A. Calabresi
A. Caracciolo
Italy
4 (C) A. Caracciolo
S. Canestrelli
Italy
5 S. Canestrelli
M. Marcel Léris
Substitution
Algeria
7 M. Marcel Léris
M. Aebischer
Switzerland
20 M. Aebischer
M. Höjholt
Denmark
8 M. Höjholt
E. Akinsanmiro
Substitution
Nigeria
14 E. Akinsanmiro
S. Angori
Italy
3 S. Angori
S. Moreo
Substitution
Italy
32 S. Moreo
F. Stojilkovic
Substitution
Switzerland
81 F. Stojilkovic
Pitch
A. Meret
Italy
1 A. Meret
A. Buongiorno
Substitution
Italy
4 A. Buongiorno
A. Rrahmani
Kosovo
13 A. Rrahmani
S. Beukema
Netherlands
31 S. Beukema
L. Spinazzola
Substitution
Italy
37 L. Spinazzola
S. McTominay
Scotland
8 S. McTominay
S. Lobotka
Slovakia
68 S. Lobotka
G. Di Lorenzo
Substitution
Italy
22 (C) G. Di Lorenzo
A. de Almeida Santos
Substitution
Brazil
27 A. de Almeida Santos
R. Højlund
Denmark
19 R. Højlund
E. Elmas
Substitution
Macedonia
20 E. Elmas

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
Capacity :
10442
Attendance :
10049
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Francesco Fourneau
Fabiano Preti
Simone Biffi
Simone Galipò

Statistics

Possession
PIS
29%
NAP
71%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 2
0 Shots 3
17 Dangerous attacks 47
24 Possession 76
1 Corners 6
8 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

8 Successful Headers 9
4 Dribble Attempts 11
3 Successful Dribbles 8
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 73
13 Throwins 18
0 Assists 3
6 Goal Kicks 6
5 Substitutions 5
42 Ball Safe 40
1 Injuries 1
3 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

49 Attacks 147
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

43 Long Passes 37
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 62
172 Successful Passes 708
16 Successful Long Passes 23
3 Key Passes 10
72 Successful Passes Percentage 92
239 Passes 770

Defensive

14 Tackles 7
33 Duels Won 37
17 Interceptions 4
2 Saves 2

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
6 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

13 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Francesco Fourneau

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Semper
Adrian Semper Goalkeeper
6.4
4
Antonio Caracciolo
Antonio Caracciolo (C) Defender
6.2
5
Simone Canestrelli
Simone Canestrelli Defender
6
33
Arturo Calabresi
Arturo Calabresi Defender
6.28
15
Idrissa Touré
Idrissa Touré
Midfielder70'
5.48
3
Samuele Angori
Samuele Angori Midfielder
6.41
7
Mehdi Léris
Mehdi Léris Midfielder
7.45
11
Juan Cuadrado
Juan Cuadrado
Midfielder70'
6.44
8
Malthe Højholt
Malthe Højholt Midfielder
6.25
14
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro Midfielder
6.16
36
Gabriele Piccinini
Gabriele Piccinini
Midfielder60'
6.63
20
Michel Aebischer
Michel Aebischer Midfielder
6.31
32
Stefano Moreo
Stefano Moreo Attacker
6.59
21
İsak Vural
İsak Vural
Midfielder71'
6.42
81
Filip Stojilkovic
Filip Stojilkovic Attacker
6.23
9
Henrik Meister
Henrik Meister
Attacker60'
6.4
Referee : Francesco Fourneau

Starting XI ▼

1
Alex Meret
Alex Meret Goalkeeper
7.08
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
Alessandro Buongiorno Defender
6.51
17
Mathías Olivera
Mathías Olivera
Defender59'
6.71
13
Amir Rrahmani
Amir Rrahmani Defender
8.35
31
Sam Beukema
Sam Beukema Defender
7.23
8
Scott McTominay
Scott McTominay Midfielder
7.79
22
Giovanni Di Lorenzo
Giovanni Di Lorenzo (C) Midfielder
6.99
30
Pasquale Mazzocchi
Pasquale Mazzocchi
Defender88'
6.94
37
Leonardo Spinazzola
Leonardo Spinazzola Midfielder
6.9
3
Miguel Gutiérrez
Miguel Gutiérrez
Defender79'
6.53
68
Stanislav Lobotka
Stanislav Lobotka Midfielder
7.04
19
Rasmus Højlund
Rasmus Højlund Attacker
7.75
20
Eljif Elmas
Eljif Elmas Attacker
7.35
11
Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne
Midfielder59'
7.06
27
Alisson Santos
Alisson Santos Attacker
6.68
26
Antonio Vergara
Antonio Vergara
Midfielder80'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Rasmus Højlund
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
88'
Event
Pasquale Mazzocchi  → Giovanni Di Lorenzo 
10th Substitution
80'
Event
Antonio Vergara → Alisson Santos
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Miguel Gutiérrez → Leonardo Spinazzola
8th Substitution
Event
Antonio Caracciolo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
78'
Event
Alisson Santos
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
İsak Vural → Stefano Moreo
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Juan Cuadrado → Mehdi Léris
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Idrissa Touré → Arturo Calabresi
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Henrik Meister → Filip Stojilkovic
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Gabriele Piccinini → Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
4th Substitution
60'
59'
Event
Kevin De Bruyne  → Eljif Elmas
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Mathías Olivera → Alessandro Buongiorno
2nd Substitution
Event
Arturo Calabresi
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
53'
53'
Event
Eljif Elmas
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
27'
Event
Amir Rrahmani 
Header / 2nd Goal
21'
Event
Scott McTominay
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rasmus Hojlund scores, making it 3-0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Hojlund scores with a left-footed shot.
88
Update Update
Pasquale Mazzocchi is on, and Giovanni Di Lorenzo is off.
80
Update Update
Antonio Vergara replaces Alisson Santos.
79
Update Update
Miguel Ortega Gutierrez comes on for Leonardo Spinazzola.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alisson Santos receives a yellow card.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antonio Caracciolo receives a yellow card.
71
Update Update
Isak Vural comes on for Stefano Moreo.
70
Update Update
Idrissa Toure is on, and Arturo Calabresi is off.
70
Update Update
Juan Guillermo Cuadrado Bello is on, and Mehdi Leris is off.
68
Attempt Attempt
Scott McTominay attempts a header but misses the shot.
61
Update Update
Gabriele Piccinini comes on for Ebenezer Akinsanmiro.
60
Update Update
Henrik Meister replaces Filip Stojilkovic.
59
Update Update
Kevin De Bruyne comes on, and Elif Elmas goes off.
59
Update Update
Mathias Olivera replaces Alessandro Buongiorno.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Elif Elmas receives a yellow card.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Arturo Calabresi receives a yellow card.
50
Attempt Attempt
Mehdi Leris attempts a header but misses the shot.
49
Attempt Attempt
Stefano Moreo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Filip Stojilkovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Elif Elmas takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Filip Stojilkovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Update Update
Amir Rrahmani scores with a header.
27
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Amir Rrahmani scores, making it 0-2.
26
Attempt Attempt
Alisson Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Scott McTominay scores, making it 1-0.
21
Attempt Attempt
Scott McTominay takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
16
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Hojlund attempted a header but missed the shot.
14
Attempt Attempt
Sam Beukema takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Amir Rrahmani's right-footed shot is blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Elif Elmas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Napoli's 0-3 victory over Pisa highlighted clear superiority in both possession and chance creation. The visitors controlled 76 percent of the ball and converted their opportunities efficiently after establishing a two-goal cushion by halftime. Pisa struggled to generate meaningful threats despite a compact defensive setup. The expected goals figures supported the final margin and confirmed the absence of major variance. With no dismissals to alter the flow, the contest followed a straightforward pattern from start to finish. Napoli's early dominance ensured they managed the game comfortably in the second half while limiting further concessions. This result reinforced their status as the stronger side on the day.

Pisa vs Napoli preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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