Roma vs Lazio Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Sun, 17 May - 10:30 AM
Serie A
Roma ROM
Versus
Lazio LAZ
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 10:30 AM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Roma host Lazio in Serie A (Regular Season) at Stadio Olimpico. Domestically, Roma sit 5th in the table while Lazio are 9th. Power ranking favours Roma by 4.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Roma possesses a 4.7-point power advantage over Lazio, positioning them as the structurally superior team.
  • Form: Both Roma and Lazio register form scores of zero ahead of this matchup.
  • Squad: Roma holds 5th place in Serie A, surpassing Lazio's 9th position.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data is available for either team in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition statistics remain unavailable for analysis in current records.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data for both teams uses low-confidence proxy metrics without xG details.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable as the add-on is not enabled for this matchup.
  • Market: Roma 61.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.3% (Δ+0%) | Lazio 15.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Roma G. Gasperini
G. Gasperini
VS
Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
1.72
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: 73 W
Fiorentina Rank: 78 W
Bologna Rank: 78 W
Atalanta Rank: 85 D
Pisa Rank: 62 W
Inter Rank: 92 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Inter Rank: 91 L
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Udinese Rank: 75 D
Napoli Rank: 86 W
Fiorentina Rank: 77 L
Parma Rank: 72 D
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 10 - 15
15
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Roma
61.1%
Draw
23.29%
Away Lazio
15.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.75
81.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Roma
Lazio
Power Score
85.75
81.03
League Position
5
9
Global Rank
34
56

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Roma — Opponent-weighted form score
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Roma Lazio

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Roma ROM Home
0 matches
Lazio LAZ Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:54:33+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Svilar
99 M. Svilar
G. Mancini
23 G. Mancini
O. N'Dicka
5 O. N'Dicka
M. Hermoso Canseco
22 M. Hermoso Canseco
M. Çelik
19 M. Çelik
B. Cristante
4 B. Cristante
K. Kone
17 K. Kone
W. França Lima
43 W. França Lima
M. Malvano
18 M. Malvano
P. Exequiel Dybala
21 P. Exequiel Dybala
D. Malen
14 D. Malen
Pitch
E. Motta
40 E. Motta
L. Pellegrini
3 L. Pellegrini
O. Nielsen
25 O. Nielsen
M. Fuentes
34 M. Fuentes
A. Marušić
77 A. Marušić
F. Dele-Bashiru
7 F. Dele-Bashiru
N. Rovella
6 N. Rovella
T. Bašić
26 T. Bašić
P. Rodríguez Ledesma
9 P. Rodríguez Ledesma
T. Noslin
14 T. Noslin
M. Cancellieri
22 M. Cancellieri

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 10:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity :
72698
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

99
Mile Svilar
Mile Svilar Goalkeeper
7
18
Matías Soulé
Matías Soulé Midfielder
7.01
19
Zeki Çelik
Zeki Çelik Midfielder
6.81
21
Paulo Dybala
Paulo Dybala Midfielder
7.12
43
Wesley
Wesley Midfielder
6.94
14
Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen Centre Forward
7.22
4
Bryan Cristante
Bryan Cristante Central Midfield
6.96
5
Evan Ndicka
Evan Ndicka Centre Back
6.96
17
Manu Koné
Manu Koné Central Midfield
6.96
22
Mario Hermoso
Mario Hermoso Left Back
6.94
23
Gianluca Mancini
Gianluca Mancini Right Back
6.97

Starting XI ▼

40
Edoardo Motta
Edoardo Motta Goalkeeper
6.72
9
Pedro
Pedro Attacker
6.83
14
Tijjani Noslin
Tijjani Noslin Centre Forward
6.86
22
Matteo Cancellieri
Matteo Cancellieri Attacker
6.87
3
Luca Pellegrini
Luca Pellegrini Left Back
6.62
6
Nicolò Rovella
Nicolò Rovella Central Midfield
7.03
7
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Central Midfield
6.58
25
Oliver Provstgaard
Oliver Provstgaard Left Back
6.78
26
Toma Bašić
Toma Bašić Central Midfield
7
77
Adam Marusic
Adam Marusic Right Back
6.81
34
Mario Gila
Mario Gila Right Back
6.97

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Roma holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Roma a 4.7-point edge. External projection is Roma 61.1%, draw 23.3%, and Lazio 15.6%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Roma vs Lazio preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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