Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Antalya Stadyumu Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Antalyaspor ANT
1 Winner 0
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
Full Time Sun, 17 May 5:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Samuel Ballet - 79'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Antalyaspor faced Kocaelispor in a competitive fixture that ended in a 1-0 victory for the home side. The match was level at halftime with a score of 0-0 after a cautious opening period from both teams. Possession was tilted towards the visitors who enjoyed 59 percent of the ball while Antalyaspor managed 41 percent. Nevertheless the home side found the only goal of the game during the second half. The absence of any red cards meant the game maintained its full complement of players on the pitch at all times. Antalyaspor being the stronger team fulfilled expectations by claiming the three points. A minimal deviation of 3.5 percent was noted in the structural assessment of the result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Antalyaspor 1-0 Kocaelispor. Antalyaspor showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was not available to determine alignment with the outcome.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market expectations as Antalyaspor secured the victory.
  • xG expectations: Without available expected goals metrics performance expectations could not be fully assessed.
  • Event impact: No significant events altered the flow of the match beyond standard play.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards ensured no distortion in team dynamics or match outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

H. Meler

Türkiye 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Savranlar

2nd Assistant

Türkiye

E. Mertoğlu

4th Official

Türkiye

B. Duran

1st Assistant

Türkiye

League averages

Super Lig Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 25.07
Yellow cards / match 4.49
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.39
Antalyaspor S. Uğurlu
S. Uğurlu
VS
Kocaelispor S. İnan
S. İnan
0.76
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: 86 L
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 D
Göztepe Rank: 72 L
Konyaspor Rank: 71 L
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 L
Eyüpspor Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 63 L
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 65 L
Göztepe Rank: 73 D
Galatasaray Rank: 86 D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 77 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Antalyaspor
96.48%
Draw
3.33%
Away Kocaelispor
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Antalyaspor
+2.37%
Draw
-2.32%
Kocaelispor
-0.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.77
56.47
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Antalyaspor
Kocaelispor
Power Score
59.77
56.47
League Position
18
11
Global Rank
487
353

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Antalyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Kocaelispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Antalyaspor Kocaelispor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Antalyaspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kocaelispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Antalyaspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kocaelispor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Antalyaspor Kocaelispor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Antalyaspor Kocaelispor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Antalyaspor
Kocaelispor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Antalyaspor
vs
Kocaelispor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Antalyaspor Kocaelispor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Antalyaspor 0.00
Kocaelispor 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Antalyaspor Kocaelispor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Antalyaspor 0.00
Kocaelispor 0.00
Antalyaspor
Kocaelispor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ANT had peak pressure around 64'.
  • ANT started the game with stronger pressure.
ANT Pressure Kocaelispor Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ANT reached the top pressure at 64' (67.03).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Antalyaspor ANT Home
3 matches
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
1
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T16:45:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Yiğiter
Türkiye
21 A. Yiğiter
B. Balcı
Türkiye
7 B. Balcı
L. Gianetti
Argentina
30 L. Gianetti
H. Türkmen
Türkiye
4 H. Türkmen
K. Paal
Suriname
3 K. Paal
S. Dikmen
Türkiye
6 S. Dikmen
J. Ceesay
Substitution
Gambia
23 J. Ceesay
A. Ömür
Substitution
Türkiye
10 A. Ömür
R. Safouri
Substitution
Israel
8 R. Safouri
S. Ballet
Switzerland
11 S. Ballet
S. van de Streek
Netherlands
22 S. van de Streek
Pitch
S. Öztaşdelen
Türkiye
83 S. Öztaşdelen
M. Haïdara
Mali
21 M. Haïdara
H. Smolčić
Croatia
6 H. Smolčić
A. Dijksteel
Suriname
2 A. Dijksteel
A. Oğuz
Substitution
Türkiye
22 A. Oğuz
M. Susoho
Spain
20 M. Susoho
M. Da Silva Cafumana
Angola
14 M. Da Silva Cafumana
H. Keita
Substitution
Mali
8 H. Keita
D. Churlinov
Substitution
Macedonia
17 D. Churlinov
D. Agyei
Substitution
England
7 D. Agyei
R. Rivas Vindel
Honduras
99 R. Rivas Vindel

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Antalya Stadyumu
Capacity :
32537
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Halil Umut Meler
Mustafa Savranlar
E. Mertoğlu
Bersan Duran

Statistics

Possession
ANT
47%
Kocaelispor
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 4
29 Dangerous attacks 30
41 Possession 59
2 Corners 4
21 Free kicks 21
6 Yellow Cards 6

Match Overview

54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 26
18 Throwins 17
7 Successful Headers 9
4 Goal Kicks 10
57 Ball Safe 74
12 Goal Attempts 4
7 Successful Dribbles 5
13 Dribble Attempts 19
2 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 0

Attacking

85 Attacks 73
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

217 Successful Passes 336
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
50 Long Passes 47
21 Successful Long Passes 16
77 Successful Passes Percentage 80
283 Passes 418
10 Key Passes 5

Defensive

24 Tackles 10
58 Duels Won 44
9 Interceptions 10
1 Saves 4

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 10
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

21 Fouls 21
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Halil Umut Meler

Starting XI ▼

21
Abdullah Yiğiter
Abdullah Yiğiter Goalkeeper
6.68
3
Kenneth Paal
Kenneth Paal Defender
6.55
4
Hüseyin Türkmen
Hüseyin Türkmen Defender
6.68
7
Bünyamin Balcı
Bünyamin Balcı Defender
6.76
30
Lautaro Giannetti
Lautaro Giannetti Defender
6.71
6
Soner Dikmen
Soner Dikmen Midfielder
6.74
8
Ramzi Safuri
Ramzi Safuri Midfielder
7.02
77
Yohan Boli
Yohan Boli
Attacker67'
6.72
10
Abdülkadir Ömür
Abdülkadir Ömür Midfielder
6.65
5
Bahadır Öztürk
Bahadır Öztürk
Defender87'
6.63
11
Samuel Ballet
Samuel Ballet Midfielder
6.62
23
Jesper Ceesay
Jesper Ceesay Midfielder
6.72
26
Nikola Storm
Nikola Storm
Attacker46'
6.83
22
Sander van de Streek
Sander van de Streek Attacker
6.78
Referee : Halil Umut Meler

Starting XI ▼

83
Serhat Öztaşdelen
Serhat Öztaşdelen Goalkeeper
6.84
2
Anfernee Dijksteel
Anfernee Dijksteel Defender
6.69
6
Hrvoje Smolcic
Hrvoje Smolcic Defender
7.02
21
Massadio Haïdara
Massadio Haïdara Defender
6.79
22
Ahmet Oğuz
Ahmet Oğuz Defender
6.94
75
Tayfur Bingöl
Tayfur Bingöl
Defender46'
6.79
8
Habib Keïta
Habib Keïta Midfielder
6.78
98
Joseph Nonge
Joseph Nonge
Midfielder38'
6.63
14
Show
Show Midfielder
6.8
20
Mahamadou Susoho
Mahamadou Susoho Midfielder
6.66
7
Dan Agyei
Dan Agyei Attacker
6.59
94
Esat Yusuf Narin
Esat Yusuf Narin
Midfielder71'
17
Darko Churlinov
Darko Churlinov Attacker
6.66
19
Serdar Dursun
Serdar Dursun
Attacker64'
6.73
99
Rigoberto Rivas
Rigoberto Rivas Attacker
6.54

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Rigoberto Rivas
Foul / 10th Yellowcard
Event
Bahadır Öztürk → Abdülkadir Ömür
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Samuel Ballet
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
79'
Event
Samuel Ballet
9th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Soner Dikmen
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
77'
74'
Event
Show
Time wasting / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Abdullah Yiğiter
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Bünyamin Balcı
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
73'
71'
Event
Esat Yusuf Narin → Dan Agyei
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Dan Agyei
Time wasting / 12th Yellowcard
Event
Yohan Boli → Ramzi Safuri
5th Substitution
67'
64'
Event
Serdar Dursun → Darko Churlinov
4th Substitution
Event
Ramzi Safuri
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
63'
61'
Event
Tayfur Bingöl
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Kenneth Paal
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
54'
Event
Nikola Storm → Jesper Ceesay
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Tayfur Bingöl → Ahmet Oğuz
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Ahmet Oğuz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'
Event
Habib Keïta
Foul / 11th Yellowcard
38'
Event
Joseph Nonge → Habib Keïta
1st Substitution
17'
Event
Dan Agyei
Penalty cancelled

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Mahamadou Susoho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Update Update
Bahadir Ozturk replaces Abdulkadir Omur.
79
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Ballet takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
78
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Nonge Boende takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Manuel Luis Da Silva Cafumana.
71
Update Update
Esat Narin is on, and Daniel Agyei is off.
67
Update Update
Yohan Boli is on, and Ramzi Safuri is off.
65
Attempt Attempt
Abdulkadir Omur takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Update Update
Serdar Dursun comes on for Darko Churlinov.
62
Attempt Attempt
Abdulkadir Omur takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Storm takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Bunyamin Balci takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kenneth Paal receives a yellow card.
53
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Ballet's header is saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Sander van der Streek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Tayfur Bingol comes on for Ahmet Oguz.
46
Update Update
Nikola Storm comes on for Jesper Ceesay.
45
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Agyei takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mahamadou Susoho takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Bunyamin Balci takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
45
Attempt Attempt
Huseyin Turkmen attempts a header but misses the shot.
43
Attempt Attempt
Soner Dikmen takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Kenneth Paal takes a left-footed shot but misses.
38
Update Update
Joseph Nonge Boende replaces Habib Keita.
35
Attempt Attempt
Abdulkadir Omur takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Sander van der Streek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Soner Dikmen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
17
Update Update
The VAR decision confirms that no penalty is awarded for Daniel Agyei.
15
Attempt Attempt
Habib Keita's right-footed shot is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Agyei takes a left-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Sander van der Streek takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
9
Attempt Attempt
Ramzi Safuri's right-footed shot is saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Darko Churlinov takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Antalyaspor 1-0 Kocaelispor. Structural assessment: Antalyaspor exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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