Gaziantep F.K. vs İstanbul Başakşehir Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Gaziantep Stadyumu Sat, 16 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K.
1 Winner 2
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA
Full Time Sat, 16 May 5:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Christopher Lungoyi - 59'
Goal
|
Goal
Eldor Shomurodov - 22' (P)
Davie Selke - 6'

CONTEXT

Gaziantep F.K. hosted İstanbul Başakşehir in a league match that ended 1-2 to the visitors. The away side took an early grip on proceedings and led 0-2 at halftime. Gaziantep held 53 percent possession yet created only 0.89 expected goals while İstanbul Başakşehir posted 2.31 xG. The home team scored a late consolation but could not overturn the deficit. No red cards were shown and both sides completed the contest with eleven players. The stronger team maintained control after the interval and converted their superiority into the three points. The result followed the expected-goals trend without major interruptions or tactical upheavals.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: İstanbul Başakşehir recorded a significant 48.5 percent deviation from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the match pattern throughout both halves.
  • xG alignment: The final result stayed consistent with the xG figures of 0.89 to 2.31.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with market expectations for the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: İstanbul Başakşehir surpassed xG expectations while Gaziantep fell short.
  • Event impact: The 0-2 halftime score shaped second-half adjustments and limited Gaziantep's recovery.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued so the match flow experienced no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

?. Turtay

Türkiye 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Mavi

1st Assistant

Türkiye

S. Demirel

2nd Assistant

Türkiye

Y. Kendirciler

4th Official

Türkiye

League averages

Super Lig Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 26.26
Yellow cards / match 4.74
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.39
Gaziantep F.K. M. Radoi
M. Radoi
VS
İstanbul Başakşehir N. Şahin
N. Şahin
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.95
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Göztepe Rank: 74 L
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 L
Eyüpspor Rank: 62 L
Kayserispor Rank: 63 W
Rizespor Rank: 68 L
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Samsunspor Rank: 74 W
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 L
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 W
Trabzonspor Rank: 78 D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 68 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 63 D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gaziantep F.K.
27.01%
Draw
21.48%
Away İstanbul Başakşehir
51.5%

Movement

Changes since opening
Gaziantep F.K.
+26.82%
Draw
+16.9%
İstanbul Başakşehir
-43.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.36
76.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gaziantep F.K.
İstanbul Başakşehir
Power Score
64.36
76.52
League Position
12
5
Global Rank
345
91

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gaziantep F.K. — Opponent-weighted form score
İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gaziantep F.K. İstanbul Başakşehir

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gaziantep F.K.

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

İstanbul Başakşehir

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gaziantep F.K. ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy İstanbul Başakşehir
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.25
22.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.13
24.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gaziantep F.K. +0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir -0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gaziantep F.K.
İstanbul Başakşehir
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gaziantep F.K.
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gaziantep F.K. İstanbul Başakşehir
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gaziantep F.K. İstanbul Başakşehir
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Gaziantep F.K.
İstanbul Başakşehir
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gaziantep F.K.
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gaziantep F.K. İstanbul Başakşehir
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gaziantep F.K. 0.30
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gaziantep F.K. İstanbul Başakşehir
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gaziantep F.K. 0.07
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.03
Gaziantep F.K.
İstanbul Başakşehir
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Gaziantep F.K. had peak pressure around 64'.
  • IBA started the game with stronger pressure.
Gaziantep F.K. Pressure IBA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Gaziantep F.K. reached the top pressure at 64' (81.22).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K. Home
13 matches
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Away
Match Record
4
Wins
8
1
Draws
1
8
Losses
4
Goals
13
Goals Scored
23
23
Goals Conceded
13
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:57:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Bozan
Türkiye
71 M. Bozan
N. Sangare
Türkiye
30 N. Sangare
M. Abena
Suriname
14 M. Abena
N. Mujakić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
5 N. Mujakić
D. Sorescu
Romania
18 D. Sorescu
V. Gidado
Substitution
8 V. Gidado
A. Maxim
Romania
44 (C) A. Maxim
K. Rodrigues
Portugal
77 K. Rodrigues
K. Kozłowski
Poland
10 K. Kozłowski
C. Lungoyi
Substitution
Switzerland
11 C. Lungoyi
M. Bayo
Guinea
9 M. Bayo
Pitch
M. Şengezer
Türkiye
16 M. Şengezer
K. Karataş
Türkiye
88 K. Karataş
J. Opoku
Ghana
3 J. Opoku
O. Ba
Senegal
27 O. Ba
Ö. Şahiner
Substitution
Türkiye
42 (C) Ö. Şahiner
O. Kemen
Cameroon
8 O. Kemen
M. Crespo da Silva
Substitution
Portugal
13 M. Crespo da Silva
A. Harit
Substitution
Morocco
25 A. Harit
E. Shomurodov
Uzbekistan
14 E. Shomurodov
A. Fayzullayev
Substitution
Uzbekistan
11 A. Fayzullayev
D. Selke
Substitution
Germany
9 D. Selke

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gaziantep Stadyumu
Capacity :
33502
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ömer Faruk Turtay
Kemal Mavi
Salih Burak Demirel
Yusuf Adnan Kendirciler

Statistics

Possession
Gaziantep F.K.
53%
IBA
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
11 Shots 9
37 Dangerous attacks 28
53 Possession 47
6 Corners 3
19 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

16 Throwins 13
16 Dribble Attempts 13
8 Successful Dribbles 5
6 Successful Headers 10
1 Assists 1
8 Goal Kicks 7
0 Penalties 1
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
93 Ball Safe 94
9 Goal Attempts 7
1 Injuries 3
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

85 Attacks 91
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 86
398 Successful Passes 348
59 Long Passes 46
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
459 Passes 406
8 Key Passes 7
35 Successful Long Passes 23

Defensive

47 Duels Won 44
15 Tackles 18
2 Saves 4
9 Interceptions 15

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 10
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Ömer Faruk Turtay

Starting XI ▼

71
Burak Bozan
Burak Bozan Goalkeeper
6.21
5
Nihad Mujakic
Nihad Mujakic Defender
6.21
6
Melih Kabasakal
Melih Kabasakal
Midfielder86'
14
Myenty Abena
Myenty Abena Defender
6.3
30
N. Sangaré
N. Sangaré Defender
7
8
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado Midfielder
6.67
61
Ogün Özçiçek
Ogün Özçiçek
Midfielder80'
6.51
18
Deian Sorescu
Deian Sorescu Midfielder
7.28
44
Alexandru Maxim
Alexandru Maxim (C) Midfielder
7.42
77
Kévin Rodrigues
Kévin Rodrigues Midfielder
7.31
9
Mohamed Bayo
Mohamed Bayo Attacker
6.81
10
Kacper Kozlowski
Kacper Kozlowski Attacker
6.84
11
Christopher Lungoyi
Christopher Lungoyi Attacker
7.61
26
Ali Osman Kalın
Ali Osman Kalın
Attacker80'
6.44
Referee : Ömer Faruk Turtay

Starting XI ▼

16
Muhammed Şengezer
Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper
7.19
3
Jerome Opoku
Jerome Opoku Defender
6.71
27
Ousseynou Ba
Ousseynou Ba Defender
6.85
42
Ömer Ali Şahiner
Ömer Ali Şahiner (C) Defender
6.48
6
Onur Bulut
Onur Bulut
Defender81'
6.59
88
Kazımcan Karataş
Kazımcan Karataş Defender
6.72
8
Olivier Kemen
Olivier Kemen Midfielder
6.99
11
Abbosbek Fayzullaev
Abbosbek Fayzullaev Midfielder
7.42
15
Hamza Güreler
Hamza Güreler
Defender81'
6.44
13
Miguel Crespo
Miguel Crespo Midfielder
6.78
4
Onur Ergün
Onur Ergün
Midfielder60'
6.74
14
Eldor Shomurodov
Eldor Shomurodov Midfielder
7.04
25
Amine Harit
Amine Harit Midfielder
6.47
77
Ivan Brnic
Ivan Brnic
Attacker60'
6.5
9
Davie Selke
Davie Selke Attacker
7.75
10
Nuno Da Costa
Nuno Da Costa
Attacker26'
6.47

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alexandru Maxim
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+1'
Event
Muhammed Şengezer
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Melih Kabasakal → Nihad Mujakic
8th Substitution
86'
81'
Event
Onur Bulut → Ömer Ali Şahiner
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Hamza Güreler → Abbosbek Fayzullaev
7th Substitution
Event
Ogün Özçiçek → Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Ali Osman Kalın → Christopher Lungoyi
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Deian Sorescu
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
65'
Event
Kazımcan Karataş
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Ivan Brnic → Amine Harit
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Onur Ergün → Miguel Crespo
3rd Substitution
Event
Christopher Lungoyi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Event
N. Sangaré
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
52'
1ST-HALF
26'
Event
Nuno Da Costa → Davie Selke
1st Substitution
22'
Event
Eldor Shomurodov
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
6'
Event
Davie Selke
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

86
Update Update
Melih Kabasakal comes on for Nihad Mujakic.
81
Update Update
Onur Bulut comes on, and Omer Ali Sahiner goes off.
81
Update Update
Hamza Gureler comes on for Abbosbek Fayzullayev.
80
Update Update
Ogun Ozcicek is on, and Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado is off.
80
Update Update
Ali Osman Kalin comes on for Christopher Lungoyi.
78
Attempt Attempt
Onur Ergun's right-footed shot is saved.
76
Attempt Attempt
Onur Ergun's left-footed shot is blocked.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kazimcan Karatas receives a yellow card.
65
Attempt Attempt
Joia Nuno Da Costa takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Rodrigues Pires took a left-footed shot but missed.
60
Update Update
Ivan Brnic replaces Amine Harit.
60
Update Update
Onur Ergun comes on for Miguel Crespo da Silva.
59
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Christopher Lungoyi takes a right-footed shot.
56
Attempt Attempt
Olivier Kemendi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mohamed Bayo with his right foot is saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Ousseynou Ba takes a left-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Deian Cristian Sorescu takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Update Update
Joia Nuno Da Costa attempts a header but misses the target.
42
Attempt Attempt
Kazimcan Karatas takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Deian Cristian Sorescu with his right foot, but it misses the target.
38
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Lungoyi takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
26
Update Update
Nuno Da Costa comes on for Davie Selke.
24
Attempt Attempt
Myenty Abena takes a header shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Eldor Shomurodov takes a right-footed shot and scores.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Eldor Shomurodov scores, making it 0-2.
15
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Rodrigues Pires takes a left-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Lungoyi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Alexandru Maxim takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Kacper Kozlowski takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Davie Selke with his right foot finds the back of the net.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Gaziantep F.K. 1-2 İstanbul Başakşehir. Structural assessment: İstanbul Başakşehir exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Gaziantep F.K. vs İstanbul Başakşehir preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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