Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa
1 Winner 0
Galatasaray GAL
Full Time Sun, 17 May 5:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Adrian Benedyczak - 27'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Kasimpasa defeated Galatasaray 1-0 in a match where the home side led 1-0 at halftime and preserved the advantage throughout the second period. Despite recording just 29 percent possession against the visitors 71 percent, Kasimpasa managed to secure the points through disciplined defending and efficient use of limited opportunities. Galatasaray entered as the stronger side yet failed to convert territorial dominance into goals. No red cards were issued to either team and the game remained free of major disciplinary incidents. The outcome highlighted a clear performance gap between expected hierarchy and actual result on the day. Kasimpasa demonstrated resilience in maintaining structure under sustained pressure while Galatasaray struggled to break down the compact defensive setup. This result stands as a notable chapter in the season narrative.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray. Kasımpaşa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the match dynamics observed throughout.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be verified due to the absence of underlying metrics.
  • Event impact: The first-half goal created the decisive event impact that shaped the contest.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent because neither side received a dismissal.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Kayatepe

Türkiye 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Curbay

1st Assistant

Türkiye

O. Bilir

2nd Assistant

Türkiye

?. Avcı

4th Official

Türkiye

League averages

Super Lig Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 25.07
Yellow cards / match 4.49
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.39
Kasımpaşa E. Belözoğlu
E. Belözoğlu
VS
Galatasaray O. Buruk
O. Buruk
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.29
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 L
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 75 L
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 W
Göztepe Rank: 73 D
Kayserispor Rank: 62 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 W
Samsunspor Rank: 72 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 W
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 64 D
Göztepe Rank: 73 W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 5 - 21
21

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kasımpaşa
30.57%
Draw
26.26%
Away Galatasaray
43.17%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kasımpaşa
-63.59%
Draw
+20.61%
Galatasaray
+42.98%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.83
86.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kasımpaşa
Galatasaray
Power Score
64.83
86.35
League Position
14
1
Global Rank
329
25

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kasımpaşa — Opponent-weighted form score
Galatasaray — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kasımpaşa Galatasaray

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kasımpaşa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Galatasaray

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kasımpaşa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Galatasaray
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kasımpaşa Galatasaray
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kasımpaşa Galatasaray
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kasımpaşa
Galatasaray
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kasımpaşa
vs
Galatasaray
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kasımpaşa Galatasaray
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kasımpaşa 0.00
Galatasaray 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kasımpaşa Galatasaray
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kasımpaşa 0.00
Galatasaray 0.00
Kasımpaşa
Galatasaray
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GAL had peak pressure around 89'.
  • GAL started the game with stronger pressure.
Kasımpaşa Pressure GAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GAL reached the top pressure at 89' (94.71).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa Home
33 matches
Galatasaray GAL Away
Match Record
7
Wins
21
5
Draws
5
21
Losses
7
Goals
45
Goals Scored
71
71
Goals Conceded
45
-26
Goal Difference
+26

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T16:45:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Yanar
Türkiye
25 A. Yanar
A. Arous
Tunisia
4 A. Arous
R. Nascimiento Franca
Brazil
50 R. Nascimiento Franca
N. Opoku
Ghana
20 N. Opoku
K. Çörekçi
Türkiye
22 K. Çörekçi
A. Baldursson
Iceland
16 A. Baldursson
İ. Kahveci
Türkiye
71 İ. Kahveci
C. Ribeiro Dias
Portugal
8 C. Ribeiro Dias
K. Demirbay
Germany
26 K. Demirbay
F. Diabaté
Substitution
Mali
34 F. Diabaté
A. Benedyczak
Substitution
Poland
19 A. Benedyczak
Pitch
G. Güvenc
Substitution
Germany
19 G. Güvenc
E. Elmalı
Türkiye
17 E. Elmalı
A. Ünyay
Substitution
Türkiye
91 A. Ünyay
W. Singo
Ivory Coast
90 W. Singo
S. Boey
Substitution
France
93 S. Boey
R. Nhaga
Substitution
74 R. Nhaga
K. Ayhan
Türkiye
23 K. Ayhan
N. Lang
Netherlands
77 N. Lang
İ. Gündoğan
Substitution
Germany
20 İ. Gündoğan
L. Sané
Substitution
Germany
10 L. Sané
M. Icardi Rivero
Argentina
9 M. Icardi Rivero

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
Capacity :
14234
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Adnan Deniz Kayatepe
Murat Tuğberk Curbay
Osman Gökhan Bilir
İlker Yasin Avcı

Statistics

Possession
Kasımpaşa
35%
GAL
65%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 6
17 Dangerous attacks 47
29 Possession 71
2 Corners 7
6 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Successful Headers 8
2 Injuries 1
4 Dribble Attempts 11
11 Throwins 18
100 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
13 Goal Kicks 5
6 Goal Attempts 8
4 Successful Dribbles 4
55 Ball Safe 82
1 Assists 0
1 Hit Woodwork 2
2 Substitutions 6

Attacking

61 Attacks 117
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

276 Passes 666
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 66
77 Successful Passes Percentage 92
212 Successful Passes 610
57 Long Passes 44
23 Successful Long Passes 29
5 Key Passes 11

Defensive

33 Duels Won 27
5 Saves 2
13 Tackles 5
7 Interceptions 6

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 5
5 Total Crosses 22

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Adnan Deniz Kayatepe

Starting XI ▼

25
Ali Emre Yanar
Ali Emre Yanar Goalkeeper
6.25
4
Adem Arous
Adem Arous Defender
6.78
20
Nicholas Opoku
Nicholas Opoku Defender
6.72
22
Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi
Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi Defender
6.72
50
Rodrigo Becão
Rodrigo Becão Defender
6.4
8
Cafú
Cafú Midfielder
6.64
16
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Andri Fannar Baldursson Midfielder
6.7
26
Kerem Demirbay
Kerem Demirbay Midfielder
7.04
34
Fousseni Diabaté
Fousseni Diabaté Midfielder
6.68
12
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
Midfielder80'
6.87
71
İrfan Can Kahveci
İrfan Can Kahveci Midfielder
7.19
19
Adrian Benedyczak
Adrian Benedyczak Attacker
7.13
77
Pape Habib Guèye
Pape Habib Guèye
Attacker90+1'
6.69
Referee : Adnan Deniz Kayatepe

Starting XI ▼

19
Günay Güvenç
Günay Güvenç Goalkeeper
6.74
12
Batuhan Şen
Batuhan Şen
Goalkeeper46'
6.49
17
Eren Elmalı
Eren Elmalı Defender
6.93
90
Wilfried Singo
Wilfried Singo Defender
6.78
91
Arda Ünyay
Arda Ünyay Defender
6.51
4
Ismail Jakobs
Ismail Jakobs
Defender78'
6.67
93
Sacha Boey
Sacha Boey Defender
6.72
7
Roland Sallai
Roland Sallai
Attacker78'
7.07
10
Leroy Sané
Leroy Sané Midfielder
7.21
27
Can Armando Güner
Can Armando Güner
Attacker90+3'
20
İlkay Gündoğan
İlkay Gündoğan Midfielder
7
—
İlkay Gündoğan
90+1'
23
Kaan Ayhan
Kaan Ayhan Midfielder
6.67
74
Renato Nhaga
Renato Nhaga Midfielder
6.92
21
Ahmed Kutucu
Ahmed Kutucu
Attacker60'
6.67
77
Noa Lang
Noa Lang Midfielder
7.01
9
Mauro Icardi
Mauro Icardi Attacker
7.02

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Wilfried Singo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Can Armando Güner → Leroy Sané
8th Substitution
Event
Pape Habib Guèye → Adrian Benedyczak
6th Substitution
90+1'
90+1'
Event
Ada Yüzgeç → İlkay Gündoğan
7th Substitution
Event
Mortadha Ben Ouanes → Fousseni Diabaté
5th Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Roland Sallai → Sacha Boey
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Ismail Jakobs → Arda Ünyay
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Ahmed Kutucu → Renato Nhaga
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Batuhan Şen → Günay Güvenç
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Adrian Benedyczak
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
27'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wilfried Stephane Singo receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Pape Habib Gueye comes on for Adrian Benedyczak.
90
Update Update
Ada Yuzgec replaces Ilkay Gundogan.
90
Update Update
Can Guner replaces Leroy Sane.
88
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Benedyczak takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Ahmed Kutucu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Ahmed Kutucu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Ahmed Kutucu takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Update Update
Wilfried Stephane Singo takes a header that hits the post.
80
Update Update
Mortadha Ben Ouanes replaces Fousseni Diabate.
78
Update Update
Ismail Jakobs comes on for Arda Ünyay.
78
Update Update
Roland Sallai comes on for Sacha Boey.
76
Attempt Attempt
Irfan Can Kahveci takes a left-footed shot but misses.
61
Attempt Attempt
Fousseni Diabate takes a left-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Benedyczak takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
60
Update Update
Ahmed Kutucu comes on for Renato Sam Na Nhaga.
58
Attempt Attempt
Nicholas Opoku's right-footed shot is saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Noa Lang has a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Leroy Sane's header is saved.
46
Update Update
Batuhan Ahmet Sen comes on for Gunay Guvenc.
38
Attempt Attempt
Leroy Sane takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
27
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Adrian Benedyczak scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Fousseni Diabate.
27
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Benedyczak scores with a right-footed shot.
19
Attempt Attempt
Leroy Sane's left-footed shot is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Arda Ünyay's header is saved.
6
Update Update
Kaan Ayhan's header goes wide.
5
Attempt Attempt
Noa Lang takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

The 1-0 scoreline accurately reflects Kasimpasa ability to absorb pressure and capitalize on a single moment of quality. Galatasaray controlled the ball for extended periods yet lacked the precision required to unlock a well-organized defense. With no disciplinary interruptions the match flowed continuously allowing both teams to implement their tactical plans without forced adjustments. The halftime lead proved sufficient as the visitors could not find an equalizer despite numerical superiority in possession. Analytical review shows that defensive compactness outweighed territorial statistics on this occasion. Kasimpasa will view the points as validation of their approach while Galatasaray must address conversion issues in future fixtures. The game underscores how results can diverge from pre-match assumptions when execution meets opportunity.

Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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