Arouca vs Tondela Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal de Arouca Tomorrow - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Arouca FCA
Versus
Tondela CDT
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 5:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Arouca host Tondela in Liga Portugal (Regular Season) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Domestically, Arouca sit 11th in the table while Tondela are 17th. Power ranking favours Arouca by 12 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Arouca possesses a 12-point power advantage at 66.58 over Tondela's 54.63 and occupies 11th place versus 17th.
  • Form: Both teams register a form score of 0 with no last outings recorded.
  • Squad: Squad details are unavailable in current data.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are not provided.
  • Transition: Transition play data is unavailable.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with no xG available for either team.
  • xVariable: xG variables are unavailable due to lack of supporting data.
  • Market: Arouca 29.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27% (Δ+0%) | Tondela 43.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Arouca V. Freire De Seabra
V. Freire De Seabra
VS
Tondela G. Feio
G. Feio
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 W
Santa Clara Rank: 66 D
Alverca Rank: 65 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Estoril Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Moreirense Rank: 68 W
Casa Pia Rank: 62 W
Sporting CP Rank: 88 D
Nacional Rank: 64 L
Porto Rank: 86 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arouca
29.55%
Draw
26.97%
Away Tondela
43.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.58
54.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arouca
Tondela
Power Score
66.58
54.63
League Position
11
17
Global Rank
294
421

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arouca — Opponent-weighted form score
Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arouca Tondela

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arouca FCA Home
0 matches
Tondela CDT Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:12:29+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
T. Sousa Esgaio
28 T. Sousa Esgaio
J. Sánchez de Felipe
15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
J. Silva
2 J. Silva
B. Kuipers
25 B. Kuipers
E. van Ee
22 E. van Ee
T. Fukui
21 T. Fukui
A. Trezza Hernández
19 A. Trezza Hernández
P. Gozalbez Gilabert
10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
N. Djouahra
7 N. Djouahra
I. Martínez Gonzálvez
17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Pitch
B. Parise Fontes
31 B. Parise Fontes
R. Fernandes Conceição
27 R. Fernandes Conceição
C. Marques
4 C. Marques
J. Antunes da Silva
44 J. Antunes da Silva
T. Silva Manso
48 T. Silva Manso
J. Rodríguez López
32 J. Rodríguez López
C. Alves Santana
97 C. Alves Santana
M. Aiko
90 M. Aiko
H. Sequeira
79 H. Sequeira
P. Pereira dos Santos
7 P. Pereira dos Santos
M. Mesquita Lopes
16 M. Mesquita Lopes

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Capacity :
5600
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

12
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Ignacio de Arruabarrena Goalkeeper
6.83
17
Iván Barbero
Iván Barbero Centre Forward
6.79
15
Javi Sánchez
Javi Sánchez Right Back
6.99
2
José Silva
José Silva Left Back
6.14
10
Pablo Gozálbez
Pablo Gozálbez Attacking Midfield
6.64
7
Naïs Djouahra
Naïs Djouahra Left Wing
6.84
19
Alfonso Trezza
Alfonso Trezza Right Wing
6.7
22
Espen van Ee
Espen van Ee Defensive Midfield
6.85
25
Bas Kuipers
Bas Kuipers Left Back
6.61
28
Tiago Esgaio
Tiago Esgaio Right Back
6.84
21
Taichi Fukui
Taichi Fukui Defensive Midfield
6.81

Starting XI ▼

31
Bernardo
Bernardo Goalkeeper
6.96
16
Rony Lopes
Rony Lopes Centre Forward
7.01
4
Christian Marques
Christian Marques Left Back
6.68
27
Rodrigo Conceição
Rodrigo Conceição Left Back
6.58
44
João Silva
João Silva Right Back
6.77
48
Tiago Manso
Tiago Manso Right Back
6.69
90
Makan Aïko
Makan Aïko Left Wing
6.81
7
Maranhão
Maranhão Right Wing
6.92
79
Hugo Félix
Hugo Félix Attacking Midfield
6.77
32
Juanse
Juanse Defensive Midfield
6.69
97
Cícero
Cícero Defensive Midfield
6.75

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Arouca holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Arouca a 12-point edge. External projection is Arouca 30.2%, draw 27.1%, and Tondela 42.7%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Arouca vs Tondela preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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