Sporting Braga vs Estrela Amadora Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal de Braga Sat, 16 May - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Sporting Braga SCB
2 – 2
Estrela Amadora CFEA
Full Time Sat, 16 May 5:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Pau Víctor - 90' (P)
Gabri Martínez - 15'
Goal
|
Goal
Stefan Leković - 90+6', 5'
|
Second yellow card Stefan Leković 90+7'

CONTEXT

Sporting Braga hosted Estrela Amadora in a match that concluded 2-2 after a 1-1 halftime score. Braga controlled 74 percent of possession while the visitors held 26 percent. A red card was issued to Estrela Amadora during the contest. Despite the home side's territorial dominance the game ended level. The stronger team according to pre-match assessment was Sporting Braga yet the outcome produced a draw. Second half adjustments centered on the red card distortion that altered team structures and flow. The result reflected a significant deviation from expected patterns for the home side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Sporting Braga 2-2 Estrela Amadora. Sporting Braga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations across both sides.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals figures were not recorded for this fixture.
  • Event impact: The red card issued to Estrela Amadora shaped second half team structures.
  • Red card distortion: The away red card introduced clear distortion to overall game flow and balance.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Fernandes Correia

Portugal 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Pereira

1st Assistant

Portugal

A. Nogueira Dias

2nd Assistant

Portugal

V. Oliveira Lopes

4th Official

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.39
Yellow cards / match 4.42
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.37
Sporting Braga C. Vicens
C. Vicens
VS
Estrela Amadora A. Rocha Simão
A. Rocha Simão
1.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.82
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Benfica Rank: 88 D
Estoril Rank: 67 D
Santa Clara Rank: 65 L
Casa Pia Rank: 63 W
Famalicão Rank: 74 D
Arouca Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Famalicão Rank: 74 D
Moreirense Rank: 67 L
Porto Rank: 86 L
Arouca Rank: 66 L
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Nacional Rank: 64 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 7 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting Braga
55.03%
Draw
24.3%
Away Estrela Amadora
20.67%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sporting Braga
+49.52%
Draw
-66.59%
Estrela Amadora
+17.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
81.02
58.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting Braga
Estrela Amadora
Power Score
81.02
58.72
League Position
4
15
Global Rank
55
530

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting Braga — Opponent-weighted form score
Estrela Amadora — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Braga Estrela Amadora

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sporting Braga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Estrela Amadora

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting Braga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estrela Amadora
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sporting Braga Estrela Amadora
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sporting Braga Estrela Amadora
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Braga
Estrela Amadora
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sporting Braga
vs
Estrela Amadora
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sporting Braga Estrela Amadora
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sporting Braga 0.00
Estrela Amadora 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sporting Braga Estrela Amadora
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sporting Braga 0.00
Estrela Amadora 0.00
Sporting Braga
Estrela Amadora
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SCB had peak pressure around 16'.
  • SCB started the game with stronger pressure.
SCB Pressure CFEA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SCB reached the top pressure at 16' (92.45).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Braga SCB Home
13 matches
Estrela Amadora CFEA Away
Match Record
6
Wins
0
7
Draws
7
0
Losses
6
Goals
25
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
25
+13
Goal Difference
-13

Data last updated: 2026-05-16T16:45:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
L. Horníček
Substitution
Czech Republic
1 L. Horníček
V. Gómez Perea
Spain
2 V. Gómez Perea
G. Lagerbielke
Sweden
14 G. Lagerbielke
P. Rodrigues de Oliveira
Substitution
Portugal
15 P. Rodrigues de Oliveira
G. Moscardo de Salles
Brazil
17 G. Moscardo de Salles
R. Horta
Substitution
Portugal
21 R. Horta
L. Teixeira Pinto
Substitution
90 L. Teixeira Pinto
J. Iria Santos Moutinho
Portugal
8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
G. Martínez Aguilera
Substitution
Spain
77 G. Martínez Aguilera
F. Navarro Aliaga
Spain
39 F. Navarro Aliaga
Pau Victor
Spain
18 Pau Victor
Pitch
R. Ribeiro
Brazil
40 R. Ribeiro
O. Galdino Fernandes
Brazil
83 O. Galdino Fernandes
S. Leković
Serbia
4 S. Leković
L. Wiedthauper
Brazil
30 L. Wiedthauper
B. Langa
Mozambique
24 B. Langa
E. Doué
Substitution
France
39 E. Doué
P. Valente Moreira
Substitution
Portugal
19 P. Valente Moreira
J. Silva Encada
Guinea-Bissau
17 J. Silva Encada
I. Stoica
Substitution
Romania
10 I. Stoica
S. van Hooijdonk
Substitution
Netherlands
20 S. van Hooijdonk
A. Marcus
Substitution
Nigeria
99 A. Marcus

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Municipal de Braga
Capacity :
30286
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Gustavo Fernandes Correia
Inácio Pereira
André Filipe Nogueira Dias
Vitor Miguel Oliveira Lopes

Statistics

Possession
SCB
67%
CFEA
33%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 4
79 Dangerous attacks 9
74 Possession 26
7 Corners 1
8 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 5
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

11 Dribble Attempts 15
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
10 Successful Headers 12
4 Goal Kicks 9
26 Throwins 15
2 Goal Attempts 2
21 Ball Safe 24
3 Successful Dribbles 8
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
0 Assists 1

Attacking

132 Attacks 55
0 Counter Attacks 1
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

628 Successful Passes 182
692 Passes 246
91 Successful Passes Percentage 74
8 Successful Long Passes 27
14 Long Passes 61
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
7 Key Passes 3

Defensive

14 Tackles 18
36 Duels Won 49
2 Saves 2
6 Interceptions 12

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 4
1 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
13 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Gustavo Fernandes Correia

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Hornicek
Lukas Hornicek Goalkeeper
6.81
78
João Carvalho
João Carvalho
Goalkeeper80'
2
Víctor Gómez
Víctor Gómez Defender
6.95
14
Gustaf Lagerbielke
Gustaf Lagerbielke Defender
6.93
15
Paulo Oliveira
Paulo Oliveira Defender
6.61
53
Jonatás Noro
Jonatás Noro
Defender85'
6.55
17
Gabriel Moscardo
Gabriel Moscardo Defender
6.59
8
João Moutinho
João Moutinho Midfielder
6.96
21
Ricardo Horta
Ricardo Horta Midfielder
7.59
29
Gorby
Gorby
Midfielder68'
6.77
77
Gabri Martínez
Gabri Martínez Midfielder
6.63
5
Leonardo Lelo
Leonardo Lelo
Defender46'
6.91
90
Luís Teixeira Pinto
Luís Teixeira Pinto Midfielder
6.53
92
António Gil
António Gil
Midfielder80'
18
Pau Víctor
Pau Víctor Attacker
7.01
39
Fran Navarro
Fran Navarro Attacker
6.58
Referee : Gustavo Fernandes Correia

Starting XI ▼

40
Renan Ribeiro
Renan Ribeiro Goalkeeper
6.73
4
Stefan Leković
Stefan Leković Defender
2
7.01
30
Luan Patrick
Luan Patrick Defender
6.8
83
Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes
Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes Defender
6.6
17
Jefferson Encada
Jefferson Encada Midfielder
6.64
19
Paulo Moreira
Paulo Moreira Midfielder
6.59
6
Kevin Höög Jansson
Kevin Höög Jansson
Midfielder77'
6.65
24
Bruno Langa
Bruno Langa Midfielder
6.81
39
Eddy Doué
Eddy Doué Midfielder
6.7
7
Leandro Antonetti
Leandro Antonetti
Attacker68'
6.47
10
Ianis Stoica
Ianis Stoica Attacker
6.73
11
Jovane Cabral
Jovane Cabral
Attacker68'
7.11
20
Sydney van Hooijdonk
Sydney van Hooijdonk Attacker
6.58
8
Robinho
Robinho
Midfielder68'
6.65
99
Abraham Marcus
Abraham Marcus Attacker
7.05
18
Jorge Meireles
Jorge Meireles
Attacker90+1'
6.74

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Stefan Leković
Second Yellow Card / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+6'
Event
Stefan Leković
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+1'
Event
Jorge Meireles → Abraham Marcus
10th Substitution
Event
Pau Víctor
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90'
87'
Event
Stefan Leković
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Abraham Marcus
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Jonatás Noro → Paulo Oliveira
9th Substitution
85'
Event
António Gil → Luís Teixeira Pinto
8th Substitution
80'
Event
João Carvalho → Lukas Hornicek
7th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Kevin Höög Jansson → Paulo Moreira
6th Substitution
Event
Gorby → Ricardo Horta
4th Substitution
68'
68'
Event
Jovane Cabral → Ianis Stoica
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Leandro Antonetti → Eddy Doué
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Robinho → Sydney van Hooijdonk
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Luan Patrick
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
Event
Renan Ribeiro
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Leonardo Lelo → Gabri Martínez
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
João Moutinho
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
37'
Event
Gabri Martínez
Header / 2nd Goal
15'
5'
Event
Stefan Leković
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Pau Victor Delgado scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Substitution Substitution
Jorge Meireles is substituted for Abraham Marcus.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jovane Cabral takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jefferson Anilson Silva Encada takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stefan Lekovic receives a second yellow card.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stefan Lekovic receives a yellow card.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Abraham Marcus.
85
Update Update
Jonatas Noro is on, and Paulo Andre Rodrigues Oliveira is off.
80
Update Update
Joao Goncalo Carapinha Carvalho comes on for Lukas Hornicek.
80
Update Update
Antonio Gil comes on for Luis Pinto.
78
Update Update
Kevin Hoog Jansson is on, and Paulo Moreira is off.
75
Attempt Attempt
Gustaf Lagerbielke takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Attempt Attempt
Joao Filipe Iria Santos Moutinho takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
Paulo Andre Rodrigues Oliveira attempts a header but misses the shot.
68
Update Update
On Jean Gorby, off Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta.
68
Update Update
Jovane Cabral comes on for Ianis Stoica.
68
Update Update
Leandro Antonetti comes on for Eddy Doué.
68
Substitution Substitution
Robinho is substituted for Sydney van Hooijdonk.
67
Attempt Attempt
Ianis Stoica takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta with his right foot is blocked.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luan Patrick Wiedthauper receives a yellow card.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Renan Ribeiro receives a yellow card.
53
Attempt Attempt
Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Pau Victor Delgado takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Pau Victor Delgado's right-footed shot is blocked.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Leonardo Lelo comes on for Gabri Martinez.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Joao Filipe Iria Santos Moutinho.
27
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Jose Navarro Aliaga takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
26
Attempt Attempt
Abraham Marcus takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Update Update
Gabri Martinez scores with a header.
15
Update Update
Gabri Martinez scores with a header.
12
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta with his right foot is blocked.
5
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Lekovic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.

CONCLUSION

Braga maintained heavy possession throughout yet could not convert territorial control into a victory after Estrela Amadora received a red card. The 2-2 draw highlighted how the numerical disadvantage forced adjustments that limited the home side's ability to pull ahead. Both teams scored once in each half which kept the scoreline level from start to finish. The absence of expected goals data prevented deeper efficiency comparisons but the possession split and red card event explained the final outcome. This result demonstrated how single incidents can override dominance in open play and produce balanced conclusions despite unequal resources on the pitch.

Sporting Braga vs Estrela Amadora preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.