Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Expert Preview & Team Analysis

2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal

Estádio Pina Manique Sat, 16 May - 5:00 PM

Liga Portugal

Casa Pia CPAC

1 – 1

Rio Ave RAFC

Full Time Sat, 16 May 5:00 PM

Round 34 Regular Season

Gaizka Larrazabal - 35'

Jalen Blesa - 52'

CONTEXT

Casa Pia hosted Rio Ave in a league encounter that finished 1-1. The home side opened the scoring in the first half and led 1-0 at the interval. Rio Ave, the stronger side on paper, responded after the break by finding an equalizer to claim a share of the points. Possession statistics showed the visitors dominating with 58 percent compared to the hosts 42 percent. No red cards were shown to either team, allowing both sides to complete the match with full complements. The final result marked a significant deviation from pre-match projections, particularly for the away side. The draw leaves both teams reflecting on missed opportunities in a match defined by contrasting halves.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: The outcome showed significant deviation from pre-match projections for Rio Ave.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with overall team performances across both halves.
xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to assess alignment with the scoreline.
Market alignment: The 1-1 draw did not align with pre-match indicators.
xG expectations: No xG metrics were available to establish performance expectations.
Event impact: Casa Pia's first-half goal shaped second-half dynamics leading to the draw.
Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so play proceeded without any ejection effects.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

H. Azevedo Malheiro

Portugal 25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Soares Vaz Freire

1st Assistant

Portugal

F. Gomes Azevedo Duarte

4th Official

Portugal

H. Pires Ribeiro

2nd Assistant

Portugal

Á. Pacheco

S. Silaidopoulos

0.91

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.05

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

2 - 3 - 2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Casa Pia

51.29%

Draw

26.76%

Rio Ave

21.95%

Movement

Changes since opening

Casa Pia

+44.06%

Draw

-62.77%

Rio Ave

+18.71%

Team Power Ranking

62.63

63.64

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Casa Pia

Rio Ave

Power Score

62.63

63.64

League Position

Global Rank

405

370

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score

Rio Ave — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Casa Pia Rio Ave

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Casa Pia

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Rio Ave

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Casa Pia ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Rio Ave

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Casa Pia Rio Ave

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Casa Pia Rio Ave

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Casa Pia

Rio Ave

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Casa Pia

Rio Ave

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Casa Pia Rio Ave

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Casa Pia Rio Ave

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Casa Pia

Rio Ave

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

CPAC had peak pressure around 69'.
RAFC started the game with stronger pressure.

CPAC Pressure RAFC Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: CPAC reached the top pressure at 69' (80.68).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Casa Pia CPAC Home

7 matches

Rio Ave RAFC Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-1

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-05-16T16:45:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 P. Sequeira Mejías

3 D. Bandeira

4 J. Goulart Silva

43 David Sousa

72 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea

42 S. Pérez Cardona

80 L. Ofori

75 P. Silva Rosas

19 K. Prieto Machado

10 D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario

11 J. Freitas Silva Marques

99 E. van der Gouw

77 O. Richards

39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição

32 J. Brabec

20 J. Esteves Baptista

5 A. Ntoi

44 T. Nikitscher

18 D. Špikić

11 J. Miller Blesa

7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira

9 T. Folgado Monteiro

General Information

Date & Time :

May 16, 2026, 05:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 34 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estádio Pina Manique

Capacity :

7000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Hélder Miguel Azevedo Malheiro

Gonçalo Nuno Soares Vaz Freire

Flávio Miguel Gomes Azevedo Duarte

Hugo André Pires Ribeiro

Statistics

Possession

CPAC

45%

RAFC

55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

4 Big Chances Created 2

5 Shots 3

66 Dangerous attacks 39

42 Possession 58

9 Corners 0

14 Free kicks 17

1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

14 Successful Headers 19

54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 69

27 Throwins 22

7 Successful Dribbles 11

13 Dribble Attempts 16

1 Goal Attempts 1

17 Ball Safe 24

3 Goal Kicks 11

1 Assists 0

5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

97 Attacks 89

0 Counter Attacks 2

3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

73 Successful Passes Percentage 81

48 Long Passes 59

201 Successful Passes 343

40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

19 Successful Long Passes 22

12 Key Passes 4

274 Passes 422

Defensive

44 Duels Won 59

11 Tackles 14

8 Interceptions 7

2 Saves 4

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 8

7 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

17 Fouls 14

3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Hélder Miguel Azevedo Malheiro

Manager ▼

Á. Pacheco Coach

Starting XI ▼

Patrick Sequeira Goalkeeper

6.67

Kaly Defender

6.58

João Goulart Defender

6.61

David Sousa Defender

6.76

Seba Pérez Midfielder

6.65

Rafael Brito

Midfielder59'

6.68

Gaizka Larrazabal Midfielder

6.78

Pedro Rosas Midfielder

6.55

Korede Osundina

Attacker86'

6.57

Lawrence Ofori Midfielder

6.53

Iyad Mohamed

Midfielder86'

6.57

Dailon Livramento Attacker

6.59

Jérémy Livolant

Attacker59'

7.03

João Marques Attacker

6.78

Kevin Prieto Attacker

6.56

Abdu Conté

Defender76'

6.72

Substitutes ▼

Rafael Brito

Midfielder59'

6.68

Jérémy Livolant

Attacker59'

7.03

Abdu Conté

Defender76'

6.72

Iyad Mohamed

Midfielder86'

6.57

Korede Osundina

Attacker86'

6.57

Bench ▼

Ivan Mandić Goalkeeper

6.5

José Fonte Defender

6.71

André Geraldes Defender

6.49

Clau Mendes Attacker

6.47

Referee : Hélder Miguel Azevedo Malheiro