Estoril vs Benfica Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota Sat, 16 May - 7:30 PM

Liga Portugal

Estoril EPF

Benfica SLB

Full Time Sat, 16 May 7:30 PM

Round 34 Regular Season

Peixinho - 90+1'

Rafa Silva - 16'

Alexander Bah - 15'

Richard Ríos - 7'

CONTEXT

Estoril faced Benfica in a league match that ended with a 1-3 scoreline in favor of the visitors. Benfica established dominance from the outset, leading 0-3 at halftime through efficient attacking play. Estoril struggled to contain the pressure in the first half but improved after the break, scoring their lone goal. The game featured balanced possession stats, with Estoril at 48 percent and Benfica at 52 percent. No disciplinary issues arose as both teams finished with eleven players on the pitch. Benfica's performance aligned with their status as the stronger team, resulting in a comfortable win despite Estoril's late efforts. The match demonstrated clear differences in quality between the sides.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Final score: Estoril 1-3 Benfica. Benfica showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with established team standards.
xG alignment: xG alignment data was unavailable for detailed assessment.
Market alignment: The final result proved market aligned with Benfica's expected dominance.
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be verified without available metrics.
Event impact: Early scoring events had a profound impact on the match outcome.
Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent given that no cards were shown.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

M. Bertolo Nogueira

Portugal 25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Figueiredo Pires

2nd Assistant

Portugal

G. Neves

4th Official

Portugal

P. Duarte Brás

1st Assistant

Portugal

I. Cathro

José Mourinho

1.18

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

2.36

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 2 - 19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Estoril

8.08%

Draw

15.43%

Benfica

76.5%

Movement

Changes since opening

Estoril

+7.43%

Draw

+13.52%

Benfica

-20.94%

Team Power Ranking

67.74

87.23

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Estoril

Benfica

Power Score

67.74

87.23

League Position

Global Rank

255

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Estoril — Opponent-weighted form score

Benfica — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Estoril Benfica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Estoril

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Benfica

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Estoril ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Benfica

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Estoril Benfica

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Estoril Benfica

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Estoril

Benfica

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Estoril

Benfica

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Estoril Benfica

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Estoril Benfica

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Estoril

Benfica

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

SLB had peak pressure around 17'.
SLB started the game with stronger pressure.

EPF Pressure SLB Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: SLB reached the top pressure at 17' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Estoril EPF Home

21 matches

Benfica SLB Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-37

Goal Difference

+37

Data last updated: 2026-05-16T19:15:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 J. Robles Blázquez

2 R. Sánchez Sendra

4 F. Reis Ferreira

25 F. Bacher

20 G. Faria Costa

12 J. Antunes Carvalho

21 L. Fernandes

8 M. da Silva Rocha

10 J. Holsgrove

14 Y. Begraoui

19 A. Ferreira Lacximicant

1 A. Trubin

26 S. Dahl

44 T. Araújo

30 N. Otamendi

6 A. Hartmann Bah

20 R. Rios

8 F. Aursnes

21 A. Schjelderup

27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva

25 G. Prestianni Gross

14 V. Pavlidis

General Information

Date & Time :

May 16, 2026, 07:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 34 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Capacity :

8000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

Nuno Filipe Figueiredo Pires

Gonçalo Neves

Paulo Ricardo Duarte Brás

Statistics

Possession

EPF

47%

SLB

53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3

2 Big Chances Created 6

15 Shots 19

31 Dangerous attacks 65

48 Possession 52

2 Corners 9

12 Free kicks 9

3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44

9 Goal Kicks 9

5 Successful Headers 12

15 Throwins 17

1 Assists 2

17 Dribble Attempts 16

8 Successful Dribbles 7

5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

72 Attacks 104

2 Big Chances Missed 4

1 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 85

17 Successful Long Passes 15

44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

431 Passes 464

13 Key Passes 10

356 Successful Passes 394

39 Long Passes 35

Defensive

11 Interceptions 7

16 Tackles 13

40 Duels Won 39

4 Saves 5

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 19

4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

9 Fouls 12

1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

Manager ▼

I. Cathro Coach

Starting XI ▼

Joel Robles Goalkeeper

6.66

Ricard Sánchez Defender

6.79

Ferro Defender

6.8

Kévin Boma

Defender46'

6.75

Gonçalo Costa Defender

6.48

Pedro Amaral

Defender46'

6.54

Felix Bacher Defender

6.8

Xeka Midfielder

6.63

Nodar Lominadze

Midfielder78'

6.77

Jordan Holsgrove Midfielder

7.17

João Carvalho Midfielder

7.16

Pizzi Midfielder

6.66

Rafik Guitane

Midfielder58'

6.85

Yanis Begraoui Attacker

7.05

André Lacximicant Attacker

6.72

Peixinho

Attacker68'

6.51

Substitutes ▼

Pedro Amaral

Defender46'

6.54

Kévin Boma

Defender46'

6.75

Rafik Guitane

Midfielder58'

6.85

Peixinho

Attacker68'

6.51

Nodar Lominadze

Midfielder78'

6.77

Bench ▼

Diogo Alexandre Aranha Dias Goalkeeper

Jan Montes Defender

Luís Gomes Midfielder

Alejandro Marqués Attacker

6.53

Referee : Miguel Bertolo Nogueira