Porto vs Santa Clara Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Do Dragão Sat, 16 May - 2:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Porto FCP
1 Winner 0
Santa Clara CDSC
Full Time Sat, 16 May 2:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Sidney Lima - 69' (Own Goal)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Porto defeated Santa Clara 1-0 in a match that stayed level at 0-0 through halftime. The home side held 54 percent possession against the visitors 46 percent and converted their opportunities into the sole goal of the contest during the second half. No red cards were shown to either team, preserving full squads throughout the ninety minutes. Porto entered as the stronger side and delivered the expected result without major deviations from the anticipated pattern of play. Santa Clara remained compact defensively but created limited clear chances after the interval. The single goal proved decisive in separating the sides on the scoreboard. Porto managed the game effectively once ahead, restricting Santa Clara to minimal threats in the closing stages. The outcome reflected disciplined execution from the winners in a low-event fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Porto showed a minimal structural deviation of 3.5 percent from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team's overall performance.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be measured directly.
  • Market alignment: The result demonstrated clear market alignment with the stronger team prevailing.
  • xG expectations: No recorded xG expectations were available for either side in the data.
  • Event impact: The second-half goal served as the main event impact in the 1-0 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued so no red card distortion occurred during the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Ferreira Gonçalves

Portugal 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Bessa Silva

1st Assistant

Portugal

M. da Silva Martins

2nd Assistant

Portugal

D. Araújo

4th Official

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.01
Yellow cards / match 4.38
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.37
Porto F. Farioli
F. Farioli
VS
Santa Clara Petit
Petit
2.45
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
AVS Rank: 58 L
Alverca Rank: 66 W
Estrela Amadora Rank: 58 W
Tondela Rank: 62 W
Estoril Rank: 68 W
Famalicão Rank: 74 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nacional Rank: 65 W
Arouca Rank: 65 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 W
Casa Pia Rank: 63 D
Rio Ave Rank: 64 L
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Porto
96.48%
Draw
3.33%
Away Santa Clara
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Porto
+0.87%
Draw
-0.87%
Santa Clara
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.88
67.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Porto
Santa Clara
Power Score
85.88
67.32
League Position
1
12
Global Rank
30
264

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Porto — Opponent-weighted form score
Santa Clara — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Porto Santa Clara

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Porto

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Santa Clara

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Porto ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Santa Clara
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Porto Santa Clara
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Porto Santa Clara
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Porto
Santa Clara
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Porto
vs
Santa Clara
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Porto Santa Clara
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Porto 0.00
Santa Clara 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Porto Santa Clara
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Porto 0.00
Santa Clara 0.00
Porto
Santa Clara
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCP had peak pressure around 19'.
  • FCP started the game with stronger pressure.
FCP Pressure CDSC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCP reached the top pressure at 19' (67.78).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Porto FCP Home
13 matches
Santa Clara CDSC Away
Match Record
11
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
11
Goals
23
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
23
+18
Goal Difference
-18

Data last updated: 2026-05-16T14:15:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Meireles Costa
Substitution
Portugal
99 D. Meireles Costa
A. Costa
Portugal
20 A. Costa
J. Bednarek
Poland
5 J. Bednarek
J. Kiwior
Poland
4 J. Kiwior
F. Moura
Substitution
Portugal
74 F. Moura
V. Froholdt
Substitution
Denmark
8 V. Froholdt
A. Varela
Argentina
22 A. Varela
R. Mora Carvalho
Portugal
86 R. Mora Carvalho
W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
Brazil
7 W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
D. Gül
Substitution
Sweden
27 D. Gül
B. Sainz Eguskiza
Substitution
Spain
17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
Pitch
J. Oliveira Afonso
50 J. Oliveira Afonso
P. de Almeida Barbosa
Substitution
Brazil
64 P. de Almeida Barbosa
S. Pena De Lima
Brazil
23 S. Pena De Lima
P. Pacheco Seabra
Portugal
4 P. Pacheco Seabra
D. Dos Santos Cabral
Portugal
2 D. Dos Santos Cabral
S. Lobo Araújo
Portugal
35 S. Lobo Araújo
J. Rocha Tavares
Substitution
Cape Verde
65 J. Rocha Tavares
G. Silva Vieira
Brazil
10 G. Silva Vieira
G. Dimaraes Miranda
Substitution
Brazil
77 G. Dimaraes Miranda
W. dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
49 W. dos Santos
L. Santos Oliveira
Substitution
Brazil
26 L. Santos Oliveira

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Do Dragão
Capacity :
50033
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
João António Ferreira Gonçalves
João Alexandre Bessa Silva
Miguel Ângelo da Silva Martins
Diogo Araújo

Statistics

Possession
FCP
54%
CDSC
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 3
56 Dangerous attacks 31
54 Possession 46
8 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 11

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 7
14 Throwins 22
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
7 Successful Dribbles 6
20 Dribble Attempts 11
10 Goal Attempts 6
12 Successful Headers 8
5 Substitutions 5
4 Injuries 6
76 Ball Safe 83

Attacking

110 Attacks 53
1 Big Chances Missed 0
3 Counter Attacks 3

Possession

49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 23
81 Successful Passes Percentage 79
18 Successful Long Passes 9
37 Long Passes 40
396 Passes 340
322 Successful Passes 268
10 Key Passes 7

Defensive

42 Duels Won 44
0 Saves 6
16 Tackles 20
9 Interceptions 10

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 15
7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

11 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Starting XI ▼

99
Diogo Costa
Diogo Costa Goalkeeper
6.95
24
João Costa
João Costa
Goalkeeper72'
6.83
4
Jakub Kiwior
Jakub Kiwior Defender
7.17
5
Jan Bednarek
Jan Bednarek Defender
7.21
20
Alberto Costa
Alberto Costa Defender
7.03
74
Francisco Moura
Francisco Moura Defender
6.73
18
Nehuén Pérez
Nehuén Pérez
Defender81'
7.05
8
Victor Froholdt
Victor Froholdt Midfielder
7
66
Bernardo Lima
Bernardo Lima
Midfielder82'
22
Alan Varela
Alan Varela Midfielder
6.95
86
Rodrigo Mora
Rodrigo Mora Midfielder
6.83
7
William Gomes
William Gomes Attacker
6.84
17
Borja Sainz
Borja Sainz Attacker
6.84
77
Oskar Pietuszewski
Oskar Pietuszewski
Attacker56'
6.94
27
Deniz Gül
Deniz Gül Attacker
6.65
10
Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga
Midfielder56'
7.02
Referee : João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Starting XI ▼

50
João Afonso
João Afonso Goalkeeper
7.29
2
Diogo Calila
Diogo Calila Defender
6.52
4
Pedro Pacheco
Pedro Pacheco Defender
7.09
23
Sidney Lima
Sidney Lima Defender
6.86
64
Paulo Victor
Paulo Victor Defender
6.74
42
Lucas Soares
Lucas Soares
Defender86'
6.75
10
Gabriel Silva
Gabriel Silva Midfielder
6.89
35
Serginho
Serginho Midfielder
6.99
49
Welinton Torrão
Welinton Torrão Midfielder
6.69
70
Vinícius Lopes
Vinícius Lopes
Attacker63'
6.81
65
Djé
Djé Midfielder
6.68
78
Andrey
Andrey
Midfielder9'
7.2
77
Gustavo Klismahn
Gustavo Klismahn Midfielder
6.79
52
Isaac Valença
Isaac Valença
Midfielder86'
26
Luis Fernando
Luis Fernando Attacker
6.79
7
Elias Manoel
Elias Manoel
Attacker62'
6.71

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Isaac Valença → Gustavo Klismahn
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Lucas Soares → Paulo Victor
10th Substitution
Event
Bernardo Lima → Victor Froholdt
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Nehuén Pérez → Francisco Moura
7th Substitution
81'
Event
João Costa → Diogo Costa
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Sidney Lima
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
69'
63'
Event
Vinícius Lopes → Welinton Torrão
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Elias Manoel → Luis Fernando
4th Substitution
Event
Oskar Pietuszewski → Borja Sainz
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Gabri Veiga → Deniz Gül
3rd Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
9'
Event
Andrey → Djé
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Andrey takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Soares de Almeida takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Veiga's right-footed shot is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Nehuen Perez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Attempt Attempt
Oskar Pietuszewski's right-footed shot is saved.
86
Update Update
Lucas Soares de Almeida is on, and Paulo Victor de Almeida Barbosa is off.
86
Update Update
Isaac Souza Valenca is on, and Gustavo Klismahn Dimaraes Miranda is off.
82
Update Update
Bernardo Lima comes on for Victor Froholdt.
81
Update Update
Nehuen Perez comes on for Francisco Sampaio Moura.
81
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Silva Vieira attempts a header but misses the shot.
72
Update Update
Joao Costa replaces Diogo Meireles Costa.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Sidney Lima puts the score at 1-0.
65
Attempt Attempt
Vinicius Lopes Da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
63
Update Update
Vinicius Lopes Da Silva comes on for Welinton Macedo dos Santos.
63
Attempt Attempt
Oskar Pietuszewski's left-footed shot is blocked.
62
Update Update
Elias Alves comes on for Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira.
59
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mora attempts a header but misses the shot.
56
Update Update
Gabriel Veiga comes on for Denis Gul.
56
Update Update
Oskar Pietuszewski is on, and Borja Sainz Eguskiza is off.
54
Update Update
Jakub Kiwior's header is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Sérgio Miguel Lobo Araújo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Diogo dos Santos Cabral takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
William Gomes takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mora takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Denis Gul takes a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Alan Varela takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
William Gomes takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Jakub Kiwior takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
26
Attempt Attempt
Jakub Kiwior takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Silva Vieira takes a left-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Klismahn Dimaraes Miranda takes a left-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mora takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Update Update
Pedro Pacheco's header is blocked.
9
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Andrey is on, and José Tavares is off.

CONCLUSION

Porto claimed a 1-0 victory over Santa Clara after a scoreless first half. The home team used its possession edge to create and finish the decisive chance after the break. Both sides completed the match with eleven players as no red cards were shown. Efficiency stayed consistent with the profile of the stronger side throughout the second half. Santa Clara maintained a solid defensive shape yet failed to register meaningful attempts on target. Porto controlled the tempo once in front and limited transitions effectively. The narrow margin illustrates how small differences in chance creation decided the points. This result fits the pattern of home dominance in similar fixtures without requiring dramatic swings in momentum or personnel changes.

Porto vs Santa Clara preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.