Anderlecht vs Mechelen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Lotto Park Sun, 17 May - 11:30 AM
Pro League
Anderlecht ADL
2 – 2
Mechelen MEC
Full Time Sun, 17 May 11:30 AM
Round 8 Championship Round
Ilay Camara - 90+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Thérence Koudou - 60'
Myron van Brederode - 15'

CONTEXT

Anderlecht hosted Mechelen in a fixture that ended 2-2 after both sides traded goals throughout the contest. The teams were level at 1-1 when the whistle blew for halftime following an open first period. Anderlecht controlled 59 percent of possession yet failed to pull ahead despite their status as the stronger side. Expected goals finished level at 1.12 apiece which mirrored the final scoreline exactly. No red cards were shown to either team leaving the match free of disciplinary interruptions. The outcome proved consistent with underlying metrics and reflected a balanced encounter from start to finish.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Anderlecht showed a moderate deviation of 9.1 percent in the pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: Both teams had identical xG values of 1.12 aligning with the 2-2 draw outcome.
  • Market alignment: The final result was aligned with market expectations for this fixture.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were met precisely with no differential between the sides.
  • Event impact: No significant events altered the flow beyond the even halftime score of 1-1.
  • Red card distortion: The absence of red cards ensured no distortion in the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Boterberg

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Senecaut

1st Assistant

Belgium

T. Vanpoucke

2nd Assistant

Belgium

M. Ledda

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.61
Yellow cards / match 3.13
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.3
Anderlecht J. Taravel
J. Taravel
VS
Mechelen F. Vanderbiest
F. Vanderbiest
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gent Rank: 71 D
Club Brugge Rank: 85 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
Sint-Truiden Rank: 78 L
Mechelen Rank: 69 W
Gent Rank: 71 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 L
Gent Rank: 72 W
Sint-Truiden Rank: 76 L
Club Brugge Rank: 87 L
Anderlecht Rank: 72 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
20
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
20 - 10 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Anderlecht
5.51%
Draw
90.89%
Away Mechelen
3.6%

Movement

Changes since opening
Anderlecht
-3.06%
Draw
+4.42%
Mechelen
-1.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.31
69.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Anderlecht
Mechelen
Power Score
72.31
69.3
League Position
6
6
Global Rank
150
221

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Anderlecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Mechelen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Anderlecht Mechelen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Anderlecht

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mechelen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Anderlecht ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mechelen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.51
25.85
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.85
25.51
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Anderlecht -0.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Mechelen +0.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Anderlecht
Mechelen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Anderlecht
vs
Mechelen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Anderlecht Mechelen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Anderlecht Mechelen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Anderlecht
Mechelen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Anderlecht
vs
Mechelen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Anderlecht Mechelen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Anderlecht 0.32
Mechelen 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Anderlecht Mechelen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Anderlecht 0.06
Mechelen 0.05
Anderlecht
Mechelen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ADL had peak pressure around 36'.
  • MEC started the game with stronger pressure.
ADL Pressure MEC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ADL reached the top pressure at 36' (83.34).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Anderlecht ADL Home
37 matches
Mechelen MEC Away
Match Record
20
Wins
7
10
Draws
10
7
Losses
20
Goals
82
Goals Scored
41
41
Goals Conceded
82
+41
Goal Difference
-41

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:59:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
C. Coosemans
Belgium
26 (C) C. Coosemans
I. Camara
Belgium
7 I. Camara
L. Hey
Denmark
3 L. Hey
M. Diarra
Substitution
Mali
93 M. Diarra
L. Augustinsson
Sweden
6 L. Augustinsson
N. Saliba
Substitution
Canada
13 N. Saliba
E. Llansana
Substitution
Netherlands
24 E. Llansana
C. Huerta Valera
Substitution
Mexico
21 C. Huerta Valera
N. De Cat
74 N. De Cat
T. Degreef
Belgium
83 T. Degreef
D. Sikan
Substitution
Ukraine
14 D. Sikan
Pitch
I. Mirás Blanco
Substitution
Spain
13 I. Mirás Blanco
J. Martinez Marsà
Spain
3 J. Martinez Marsà
R. Halhal
Morocco
2 R. Halhal
T. St. Jago
Netherlands
33 T. St. Jago
M. Servais
Belgium
17 M. Servais
D. Salifou
Substitution
Togo
29 D. Salifou
F. Hammar
Sweden
6 (C) F. Hammar
T. Koudou
Substitution
France
7 T. Koudou
M. van Brederode
Netherlands
9 M. van Brederode
K. Mrabti
Substitution
Sweden
19 K. Mrabti
B. Boersma
Substitution
28 B. Boersma

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 8 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Lotto Park
Capacity :
21500
Attendance :
18000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jan Boterberg
N. Senecaut
Tom Vanpoucke
Massimiliano Ledda

Statistics

Possession
ADL
55%
MEC
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
13 Shots 9
41 Dangerous attacks 32
59 Possession 41
2 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 16
0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

2 Injuries 2
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 1
10 Dribble Attempts 8
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
23 Throwins 17
2 Successful Dribbles 3
5 Goal Kicks 7
82 Ball Safe 75
12 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

98 Attacks 86
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

419 Successful Passes 269
81 Successful Passes Percentage 75
12 Key Passes 8
518 Passes 359
46 Long Passes 72
18 Successful Long Passes 31
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

19 Tackles 17
1 Saves 7
10 Interceptions 11
52 Duels Won 57

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 12
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
16 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Jan Boterberg

Starting XI ▼

26
Colin Coosemans
Colin Coosemans (C) Goalkeeper
6.22
3
Lucas Hey
Lucas Hey Defender
6.79
6
Ludwig Augustinsson
Ludwig Augustinsson Defender
7.11
7
Ilay Camara
Ilay Camara Defender
8.11
93
Moussa Diarra
Moussa Diarra Defender
6.83
54
Killian Sardella
Killian Sardella
Defender72'
6.46
13
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
Nathan-Dylan Saliba Midfielder
7.26
79
Ali Maamar
Ali Maamar
Defender83'
6.72
21
César Huerta
César Huerta Midfielder
6.29
91
Adriano Bertaccini
Adriano Bertaccini
Attacker61'
6.52
24
Enric Llansana
Enric Llansana Midfielder
6.59
55
Marco Kana
Marco Kana
Defender73'
6.49
74
Nathan De Cat
Nathan De Cat Midfielder
6.48
83
Tristan Degreef
Tristan Degreef Midfielder
6.17
14
Danylo Sikan
Danylo Sikan Attacker
7.05
11
Thorgan Hazard
Thorgan Hazard
Midfielder72'
6.39
Referee : Jan Boterberg

Starting XI ▼

13
Nacho Miras
Nacho Miras Goalkeeper
7.31
1
Ortwin De Wolf
Ortwin De Wolf
Goalkeeper46'
6.61
2
Redouane Halhal
Redouane Halhal Defender
6.46
3
José Marsà
José Marsà Defender
6.52
33
Tommy St. Jago
Tommy St. Jago Defender
6.86
6
Fredrik Hammar
Fredrik Hammar (C) Midfielder
6.4
7
Thérence Koudou
Thérence Koudou Midfielder
7.67
39
M. Decoene
M. Decoene
Midfielder85'
6.34
17
Mathis Servais
Mathis Servais Midfielder
6.6
29
Dikeni Salifou
Dikeni Salifou Midfielder
6.71
8
Mory Konaté
Mory Konaté
Midfielder69'
6.19
9
Myron van Brederode
Myron van Brederode Attacker
7.79
19
Kerim Mrabti
Kerim Mrabti Attacker
6.91
38
Bill Antonio
Bill Antonio
Attacker79'
6.55
28
Bouke Boersma
Bouke Boersma Attacker
6.68
14
Damir Milanovic
Damir Milanovic
Attacker85'
6.37

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jérémy Taravel
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Ilay Camara
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+1'
90'
Event
Mory Konaté
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Event
M. Decoene
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Damir Milanovic → Bouke Boersma
10th Substitution
85'
Event
M. Decoene → Thérence Koudou
9th Substitution
Event
Ali Maamar → Nathan-Dylan Saliba
8th Substitution
83'
79'
Event
Bill Antonio → Kerim Mrabti
7th Substitution
Event
Marco Kana → Enric Llansana
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Killian Sardella → Moussa Diarra
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Thorgan Hazard → Danylo Sikan
4th Substitution
72'
69'
Event
Mory Konaté → Dikeni Salifou
3rd Substitution
Event
Adriano Bertaccini → César Huerta
2nd Substitution
61'
60'
Event
Thérence Koudou
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Ortwin De Wolf → Nacho Miras
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Dikeni Salifou
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
39'
Event
Redouane Halhal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
17'
15'
Event
Myron van Brederode
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mory Konate receives a yellow card.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ilay Camara scores, making it 2-2.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ilay Camara takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Massimo Decoene receives a yellow card.
85
Update Update
Massimo Decoene is on, and Therence Koudou is off.
85
Update Update
Benito Raman comes on for Bouke Boersma.
83
Update Update
Ali Maamar replaces Nathan Saliba.
79
Substitution Substitution
Bill Antonio is substituted for Kerim Mrabti.
73
Update Update
Marco Kana comes on for Enric Llansana.
72
Update Update
Killian Sardella comes on for Moussa Diarra.
72
Update Update
Thorgan Hazard comes on for Danylo Sikan.
69
Substitution Substitution
Mory Konate is substituted for Dikeni-Rafid Salifou.
68
Attempt Attempt
Adriano Bertaccini's header is saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Danylo Sikan's header is saved.
61
Update Update
Adriano Bertaccini is replaced by Cesar Huerta.
60
Attempt Attempt
Therence Koudou takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
55
Attempt Attempt
Myron van Brederode takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Cesar Huerta takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Ortwin De Wolf comes on for Nacho Miras.
45
Attempt Attempt
Enric Llansana takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Danylo Sikan's right-footed shot is saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Bouke Boersma takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Ilay Camara takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Saliba takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Ilay Camara's right-footed shot is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Danylo Sikan's header is saved.
26
Attempt Attempt
Cesar Huerta attempts a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Servais takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Jose Martinez Marsa takes a header shot but misses.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nathan Saliba scores, making it 1-1.
17
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Saliba takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
15
Attempt Attempt
Myron van Brederode scores with a right-footed shot.
8
Attempt Attempt
Therence Koudou takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Nathan De Cat's header is saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Therence Koudou takes a left-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Bouke Boersma takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw between Anderlecht and Mechelen delivered a result that matched the balanced expected goals and even possession split. Anderlecht maintained control for large spells but could not find the decisive moment to break the deadlock. Mechelen defended stoutly and took their opportunities when they arrived to stay level. With no red cards or major disruptions the game flowed naturally from the opening whistle through to the final exchanges. Both teams can take positives from an entertaining contest that highlighted their respective strengths without a clear winner emerging on the day.

Anderlecht vs Mechelen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Pro League, Belgium View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.